Pre Market Analysis 2-18-11 Friday

News: No News out today

Daily chart notes: Same old situation. Big daily wedge and ES grinding higher.

MP Notes: ES closed in the upper part of value yesterday on a P shape day. We had breaking value yesterday and we need to monitor for continued vertical development. Globex has formed value in the upper part of yesterdays range giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: As of yesterday ES is starting is starting to show signs of vertical development and we need to monitor for continuation of this. We broke out of the weeks range and consolidated at the highs and globex has consolidated in yesterdays upper value area giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure. The expectation for today is for Es to trade higher into resistance and look for sellers. We have 1340.50-1342.50 level above and we should see a test of this area giving us a rotation to play to the down side. Without any news out today i expect ES to balance in a range most of the day giving little opps to trade. Buyers are still in control and need ES to stay above 1336-1334.50 level to stay in control. If we break down below that we could see ES trade back down to 1325.75-1327.75 level and then 1322.25 which is the lower part of the range that has recently developed.

New Markets

Recently ES has been a bitch to say the least. So i have decided to look at some other market and i will start sim trading them on monday. I will post screen shots of the Sim trades i take and why along with PNL Im doing this because honestly i cant stand the way Es has been trading. The daily chart says it all. I will be looking at 6E euro/usd and ZN 10 year.

End of day review 2-17-11 Thursday

ES opened and at first was below pre market resistance which gave me a bearish bias. Then we reversed and trended higher the rest of the day. Not crazy about trading in this area so will be very careful and will wait for something good to set up.

1st trade and only: This trade i took at resistance because i was expecting the market to reverse and rotate lower back to value instead ES decided to go higher and i was stopped for 8 ticks. This is ok for me because i had a plan today and i followed it. This was a case of ES just not rotating and the day turning into a trend type day.

Pre Market Analysis 2-17-11 Thursday

News: Consumer Price Index @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @8:30AM, Leading indicators @10AM, Philly fed survey @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: What can i say the picture is still the same. We grind higher on low volume. We are still in thi8s rising wedge pattern and the weeks range is only 12 points. How much worse can it get...

MP Chart Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and at the top of the weekly range. Globex is in a tight balanced area and inside yesterdays value area. giving us a neutral macro and no real bias going into today.

Trade plan: Today's trade plan is to wait for the market to move out of this area for the most part. I fell as if we are going to rotate back to the lows of the weekly range. Today should be the day for the wedge to play out which might give us the rotation back to the lows. So what i see in the context is that buyers are in control (what else is new) and need to stay above 1325-1327 to keep control. A break below 1330.50-1331.50 would be an early sign of weakness. And if we break and hold below 1325-1327 will be a heads up of the sellers possibly taking control. We have a few reports out today at 10AM so we could balance leading up to the release and i will decide what i want to do after seeing the market reaction. Over all im still a buyer of support and i will concentrate on the long side around 1321-1323 a break below that and i will look at 1314-1316

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.

The "Zone" correct mind set.

The past few days i have not been doing to well. I think its a combination of my job getting in the middle of my though process and the market being in the area that it is in. As far as the market goes We just keep grinding higher on crap volume everyday. It seems to be the normal thing for the market to do. We sell down a few points to some support level and grind higher the rest of the day not offering any opps to join the move up or any place to get short. Very Very frustrating. But you have to take what the market gives you. Unfortunately i haven't seen a market that trades "normally" When i started to learn how to trade it was during the financial crisis and threw 2010 so i didn't really know what was normal and what is not and i still don't. I pretty much just go from what i was told by Kev and what i read about on the internet. As far as work goes i haven't been getting to my computer till well after the market opens. I have my routine all done and my analysis is finished but my mind isn't right. I haven't been able to get into the "zone" . Since the beginning of the year i have had a 180 degree turn around in my trading. And i think it has alot to do with my mind set. I have noticed that since the beginning of the year i have really been in touch with my thought process and the trades i make. But the past 2 days i have been rushing into my seat to try and get some trading in and only just get stopped out 2 or 3 times in a row. I wont get into details about why i have been messed up at work but lets just say that i am really frustrated and upset by the time i sit down. So the point of this post is to high light the importance of having a clear mind and being in the zone when it comes times to trade. And for now on i will not trade unless i am in the zone or correct mindset to put on a trade.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.