Pre market analysis 4-6-11 Wednesday

News: No notable news releases today.

Daily chart notes: The daily chart has been in a nice short term up trend and is showing signs of ending. We are at the top of the balance area and could see some selling up here.

Trade plan: Yesterday ES traded in a range that has been in for the past few sessions showing balance trade. I'm assuming it is due to the BOE rate decision out on Thursday. I'm sure the market will watching this decision closely. Yesterday ES found support at the 1324-1326 level and traded higher into the 1332-1334 level where we sold off back down to the bottom of the range. Globex has been putting value in lower down but has recently shot up breaking the top of the range and sitting above the 1332-1334 level. Buyers appear to be in control and we could get a break of the highs of the year today although I'm not expecting it. If ES opens above the 1332-1334 level we can expect responsive sellers to be active at the open and i will be watching for this. I have initial resistance at 1337-1338 level which is the high of the year and it's an area i expect responsive sellers to be active. If we open above the 1332-1334 level this will now be pre market support and it may hold if the buyers are really active. In the case we break below that level the next support is the globex lows and MCVPOC area at 1327.50. A break below this will bring the 1324-1326 level into play then the gap fill and level at 1320.75-1322.75. Over all the game plan is to look for responsive sellers at initial resistance unless we open with an OD opening type and responsive buyers at support. I prefer the initial support area for longs. Volume is thin up here and we could see a nice correction play out soon. If we break down fast i will not be so quick to get long at support. And the risk is on the long side at the top of this bigger range.

Pre Market analysis 3-9-11 Wednesday

New: No news out today

Daily chart notes: Market still in this balance area with acceptance at 1317 area.

Mp Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and globex stayed in that value area over night as expected. We formed a p pattern telling us the market wants to trade higher so i will monitor for follow through.

Trade plan: Es globex stayed between 1318 vpoc and 1325 Tuesday highs with acceptance at 1320.75 just below Tuesdays area of acceptance. I want to see ES stay above the big vpoc at 1318. If we break below that that could open the doors for a test of the 1310 area then 1303 area below that. Above that we have resistance at 1325-1327 area and strong resistance at 1334-1336 area where i expect buying to shut off. With no news out today I'm expecting a balanced session to play out and looking for selling opps at resistance areas and buying opps at support areas.

Pre Market Analysis 3-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, Factory Orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been moving up the past few days and is approaching the top of the range and down trend line.

MP Notes: Market has been forming value higher up in the past few sessions. We are getting to the top of the balance area and need to monitor for responsive sellers around there. We have a bullish macro structure with globex and need to be careful of follow through to the up side.

Trade plan: We had a balanced session in globex leading up to the release of the NFP number. Im not expecting much to happen until the release of the number so i will wait for that to hit the market and look at the reaction. I will be looking to be a responsive seller at the extreme area of 1334-1336 if we get a bearish report. In the case of a bullish report i will be more cautious about selling up here and will rather be a buyer above value after a break and retest. Over all I'm going to wait to see how the market reacts to the news and go from there.

Pre Market Analysis 3-3-11 Thursday

News: ECB announcement @ 7:45AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, ISM Non MFG Index @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been balancing in a recent balance area  1293-1336 an the expectation is for ES to continue to balance until we get a catalyst to move us out of this area. Es almost hit the bottom of the balance area and is now making its way back to the top area. We are mid range right now.

MP Notes: ES placed value higher up yesterday and globex is now trading higher placing value higher up as well. the expectation is for ES to continue its move higher up to the top of the range area.

Trade plan: With ES placing value higher up i have to expect ES to continue its move back to the other side of the bigger balance area (1336). We are pretty much neutral on the week in terms of a bias based on the weekly IB. So a rotation back up to the highs is not out of the question. I will be looking to buy support areas on my 30 min chart for moves up into resistance. As for the down side i will be a seller at resistance areas above but i will not initiate shorts to early. I will wait to see how the market reacts to the figures out before placing any trades in either direction.

End of day review 2-18-11 Friday

So the market traded as expected by balancing in a range for the session. At the open we grinded higher into the resistance zone at 1342-1344 where i took a short for 3 points. The situation hasn't changed this week we continue to grind higher and higher on low volume making it a very difficult area to trade. Caution really needs to be taken here and a lot of discipline will keep you out of harm's way. Kev always told me cash is a position and you have to know when NOT to trade. And that is the most difficult part of trading. I had a bad week this week and dug myself into a unnecessary hole if i would have just not traded when i was having them issue with work this week i would have been fine. I did some stupid things and i paid for it. I didn't have to trade especially with me knowing there was nothing to trade with ES being so dead. So next week hopefully ES will be tradable and i will be able to get back what i lost and end the month up. I learned an important lesson this week. In trading you have to except that you will not always be up and when your down you can't let it get to you, once you do it begins to deteriorate your confidence and it seems like you will never be ok again and the end of the world is right around the corner. But this is when you have to dig in and really fall back on your discipline and stick to MM rules. If i was to take one more loser i would have gone on SIM this week till i was able to be confident again. I will see how i do next week and i will be careful and only trade when im not upset about work issues and when the market has something to do. All in all im still pretty new at the game and i know i have a lot to learn. So the journey continues...

1St trade: See trades chart.

Pre Market Analysis 2-18-11 Friday

News: No News out today

Daily chart notes: Same old situation. Big daily wedge and ES grinding higher.

MP Notes: ES closed in the upper part of value yesterday on a P shape day. We had breaking value yesterday and we need to monitor for continued vertical development. Globex has formed value in the upper part of yesterdays range giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: As of yesterday ES is starting is starting to show signs of vertical development and we need to monitor for continuation of this. We broke out of the weeks range and consolidated at the highs and globex has consolidated in yesterdays upper value area giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure. The expectation for today is for Es to trade higher into resistance and look for sellers. We have 1340.50-1342.50 level above and we should see a test of this area giving us a rotation to play to the down side. Without any news out today i expect ES to balance in a range most of the day giving little opps to trade. Buyers are still in control and need ES to stay above 1336-1334.50 level to stay in control. If we break down below that we could see ES trade back down to 1325.75-1327.75 level and then 1322.25 which is the lower part of the range that has recently developed.