End of day review 5-16-11 Monday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) I was late coming into the morning session. ES opened below Fridays value and this brought in responsive buyers. The market moved up into Fridays value area and stalled at the globex highs area. We had a PB into my support area and it was a great place to get long. The market shot up and hit the next level above at 1337 where we had a small rotation back into the 1333.1335 level that was broken this morning. The market had another strong push above the IBH and trough the 1337-1338.50 level. Sellers were active at the 1341 level and the market pulled back and broke back into the IB. This was a warning sign that we could see a rotation back to the lows. We retraced back into the IBH and down we went for an almost complete rotation. The market bounced back up in the 50% area and the 1333-1335 level where sellers were active once again pushing ES down into the lows of the day and breaking the IBL. The day established value lower down with sellers in control closing the day at the lows. The vpoc shifted down from Fridays session.

(Trade plan) My trade plan was pretty much right on queue today. I was expecting responsive buyers to be active at the lows of the bigger range and that's exactly what we got. Buyers moved us back up into the recent range.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) I missed the action in the morning because of work but there were a few nice trades. 1^st was at 1331 on the pull back into my level and previous low of day. 2^nd After breaking the A period on the MP there was a little PB into the 1333.75 A period high. 3^rd was the retest of IBH after breaking back into the IB. And 4^th was selling the down trend line in a down trending afternoon. The ones with the black circles are the hypothetical trades.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I tried a long here at IBH looking for the market to continue higher. It was a good area to look for a long as long as we stayed above it. As soon as we broke below the IBH and had trouble getting back above it I should have bailed on the trade. I did take off one lot to hedge some risk and that was a good idea.

2^nd trade: I bought the 50% retrace looking for the market to still move back up. This trade ended up being a winner and I only kept my target at 2 points because that was my first target and in case we couldn’t get back above the IBH then it’s the best place to be flat.

3^rd Trade: market was moving lower and I was expecting the retest of the lows of the day. I used order flow to get in this trade and go with the momentum that came into the market.

4^th Trade: This trade was an impulse trade. I shouldn’t have taken it because I was trying to guess that the market was going higher so I tried to buy the little break above that swing high. But if the market was going to go up that was the place for the buyers to keep pushing. They didn’t and I was stopped out for -6 ticks. That was also the 50% retrace level of the bigger move down. It wasn’t a good place to try and get long at all because the market was trending lower most of the afternoon and with 50% right in front of me it was poor risk to reward on that trade. I deserved that one lol.

5^th Trade: The market was breaking down and I tried a short after it broke the trend line and the previous swing low area. I was almost 2 points up and I saw signs of a supply and demand shift so I bailed for BE on that one. I was looking for the market to follow through to the down side.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was really happy with my trading today. I feel like I’m finally starting to make the turn. I’m having more confidence in my trades now and I feel like I am better able to read the market. When you’re able to read the market you can look for trades to take. I spent a lot of time trying to just find set ups and all along I was missing what the markets were all about. It’s not about set ups it’s about context and price action. I’m eager to move forward and see what the rest of the week brings.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+

Following my rules: A+

Trade execution: C+

Pre market analysis 5-16-11 Monday

News: Empire state mfg. @ 8:30AM. Treasury international capital @ 9AM, Housing market index @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Friday was a selling day with value established lower from the previous day. We still managed to balance in the same area though. Globex placed value lower down on Fridays session giving us a bearish tone to the sentiment.

(Trade plan) With the bearish tone on the market and a bearish reaction to the econ release we could get a break lower out of the balance area. Were at the bottom of the balance are so i will be cautious trying to sell down here. Depending on the market's reaction on the open and the econ release i will determine if i want to get long down here. This area is where one should expect to see responsive buyers getting active for a move back up into value. Over all i will be looking to be a buyer at support and a seller at resistance areas on my chart. But will be cautious of a break below the 1327 level also globex lows. A break and hold below that could mean that we see lower prices over the next few days. If we bounce from there then we could trade back up into the range.

End of day review 4-15-11 Friday :)

Today was an alright day as far as action is concerned. I had a loser in the morning after the strong buying came in. I was trying to catch a PB into support only to have the market shoot down and stop me out. I was a little afraid to get long at the retest of the level at 1309-1311 area so I was being cautious and waiting for a retest of the LOD. The market traded right up into the upper extreme of the recent value area and I didn’t really catch that in my morning analysis. Otherwise I would have been looking to get short around 1315.75 level test to be a responsive seller and take the market back into value around 1309-1311 area. I ended up catching a good long after the break down around 3 PM. First I tried a short on the retest of IBH and got jerky and ended up getting in a little early so I bailed for +2 ticks. Then the market retested the IBH level and sold down 2 points so that would have been a good trade. Then I wanted to get long after the market tested the 50% retrace area which was also the globex highs and a LVN on the day. So I just bought as close to the 50 % retrace level as I could and I ended up being a point early again but my stop of 6 ticks kept me alive by 3 ticks. I ended up taking 3 points and ended the day up but down $200 for the week. I am break even for the month so far.

   I have noticed a few things this week one is that I have a problem with trying to guess what the market is trying to do. And the other is I trade with fear. Fear of losing money and fear of missing out on something. And I think that the fear in my trading is what is making me try and guess what the market is trying to do. So I was considering trading on SIM for the week and see how this effects my trading decisions. Then I will have confirmation on whether or not my trading is driven by fear instead of logic.

Pre market analysis 4-15-11 Friday :)

News: Consumer price index @ 8:30AM, Empire state Mfg survey @ 8:30AM, Treasury international capital @ 9AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, Consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM

Trade plan: ES had some good buying come in off of the 50 % retrace level at 1299.00 area yesterday and then bounced up into the CVPOC at 1311 area. Globex formed value higher up on yesterdays value so the short term we are bullish with the bullish macro in place. There are a few news releases out today most importantly is the consumer confidence number at 9:55AM. I'm expecting buyers and sellers to be active at the support and resistance levels today. And im expecting a balanced session unless we get some initiative action on the release of the figures.

End of day review 2-15-11 Tuesday

So today wasn't a good day for me partly because of work and myself. I didn't get to computer till after 10:00AM and i got a little jumpy and got into a trade to early. That cost me 2 points. Then i got back in which was the correct thing to do but my entry was off and i got stopped again. Then i tried to get short again and took a break even on that one and good thing because market went up. The market balanced again today and tested the 1320-1322 level and went higher from there. That's where i wanted to get long from and i should have waited for my level top trade before i put on a trade. My problem today was i didn't follow my plan and i was distracted with work. But i don't want to blame work alone. I should have followed my plan more importantly. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Pre Market Analysis 2-15-11 Tuesday

News: Retail sales @ 8:30 AM, Empire state Mfg Survey@ 8:30AM, Business Inventories @ 10:00AM

Daily chart notes: We are still moving higher on the daily making new highs again on the year. The big rising wedge is still in play and hasn't broken the trend line yet. Yesterdays vol was really light and we still made new highs so caution up here is needed.

MP Notes: Sunday and Monday were perfectly balanced sessions and globex is in value with the past two session leaving us with a neutral macro structure. Friday broke out of the balance area making new highs on the year so the bigger picture remains bullish with buyers in control. This picture can change pretty quickly tho so cation needs to be taken on the long side.

Trade Plan: ES had a balanced session yesterday as expected. We are consolidating above the previous balance area which is good for the bullish context. We have a rising wedge that may play out on the daily so i will be cautious on the long side as support areas might break on the way down to find more buyers. Im still looking for the first test of the previous balance area high and will look for long opps there. If we break the 1320-1322 level with momentum i will look for a small pullback to get short off of for a quick trade. If we get back below 1320 we could see lower prices down to around 1316-1314 then possible 1310-1308 this would be an extreme and i expect selling to shut off by then. I am only going to concentrate on the long side at the previous balance area highs around 1320-1322 area. If we break the highs i will wait for value to build before playing the long side above the yearly highs. To have a heads up of the first signs of weakness we need to break globex low and see how price trades at 1320-1322 area. A break below 1320-1322 is a red flag for buyers.