End of day review 5-13-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened in yesterday vpoc value area and we initially moved a little higher on the open and found sellers at the top of yesterdays range. ES moved lower and bounced off of the globex lows and my support level at 1343-1344. We bounced back up into the 1345.50-1346.50 level and rotated lower. Buyers were active at the 1339.50-1340.75 level and we got a strong bounce back above the globex lows and the 1343-1344 level. We had a small retrace and bounced again back into the 1345-1346 level and it was all downhill from there. We kept moving lower with small rotation at each level and then trend follow through. The selling picked up and we had exhaustion volume selling into the 1330.25-1331.50 level where we bounced and ranged for a bit.

(Trade plan) Although i was in the bullish camp this morning i was also expecting some down side action. I wasn't expecting this much but it didn't matter. I still had a plan for either way the market went. We did get the fast move down below the 1343 number. So trade plan looked good.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) 1st aggressive traders could have sold the move up into the yesterdays high range. 2nd there was a long at globex lows support at 9:55am but we had econ number release at same time. 3rd another long into the 1340.75 level at 10:10AM. 4th long at 10:30AM off of the FB of globex lows area. 5th If you were looking at the overnight action we had a 50% retrace at 1346.50 and i had level at the area as well for a PB in a down trend type move. 6th Selling the 1340.25 level after breaking in strong trade.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I was short at 1342.75 at 10:06 AM after the break below the globex low and level i had. Market hit my 2 point target but it didn't fill. I went to break even and was stopped for a flat trade. Good call because market steamed up.

2^nd trade: Was long at 1343.75 after the rush of buying and a retrace into the level i had there. I got out of one for 2 points and left the other for 1351 target to play the bullish macro structure. It ended up stopping me out for BE on second lot.

3rd Trade: I was long again at 1340.25 once again market hit my target but no fill so took a BE trade.

4th Trade: Wanted short at 13:25 pm at 1326.25. Boss called and had to leave computer. Nice trade tho...

Conclusion of the day/week and thoughts going forward: So i feel like today was one of my better days of trading. It sounds funny to say that because i wasn't up on the day at all. But i felt really good about my market read and my trade execution. The only problem with the 3 trades i took is i didn't get filled for my target of 2 points. On the trade i had extended target on i should have left it for 2-3 points. I was feeling a little ambitious there. I feel like im getting better at them two issues. I will keep doing the same routine i have been doing for the past few weeks. Next week i will concentrate on leaving my target at 2 points. The reason is that trading is a game of size not points. If i can consistently take 2 points on every trade i can increase my size. If i can get on a 4 lot in a short amount of time then them 2 points will add up quick. No reason to go for more than that. Ok till next week...

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A+

Pre market analysis 5-13-11 Friday :)

Blogger was down this morning so posting this late

News: Consumer price index @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) So yesterdays price action was bullish as we were close to the bottom of the recent balance area. We have been trading in a balance area and have been rotating up and down. We are likely to break out of this area sooner or later, it's just a matter of time. (Globex) In the overnight session we have put in a pretty big range of almost 10 points. We rotated down to the 1343 cvpoc level and bounced up into the 1351-1353 level and have since traded down from there. We have CPI and consumer sentiment out today and this could give us a reason to see some action.

(Trade plan) We are in a ranging type market on the higher time frame and the market is just rotating up and down within that area. Yesterday the market shot up but value was stilled formed in the bigger value area not making any real progress. I'm still in the bullish camp and will be looking to be a buyer at support and also a seller at resistance. Globex formed value higher up on yesterday so over night sentiment is bullish. We have 1343 balance area vpoc and if we remain above that we could see higher prices up into the extremes of the bigger range. If we take out the globex highs i have strong resistance at 1356-1358 area and expect sellers to be active there on first test. If we break below the 1343 area we could see another fast move lower down into support areas below. I expect selling to shut off by 1327 area if we get there but that will be an extreme. The past few Fridays have been pretty slow so I'm expecting a move in the morning and then the market to shut off later in the day. 

End of day review 4-15-11 Friday :)

Today was an alright day as far as action is concerned. I had a loser in the morning after the strong buying came in. I was trying to catch a PB into support only to have the market shoot down and stop me out. I was a little afraid to get long at the retest of the level at 1309-1311 area so I was being cautious and waiting for a retest of the LOD. The market traded right up into the upper extreme of the recent value area and I didn’t really catch that in my morning analysis. Otherwise I would have been looking to get short around 1315.75 level test to be a responsive seller and take the market back into value around 1309-1311 area. I ended up catching a good long after the break down around 3 PM. First I tried a short on the retest of IBH and got jerky and ended up getting in a little early so I bailed for +2 ticks. Then the market retested the IBH level and sold down 2 points so that would have been a good trade. Then I wanted to get long after the market tested the 50% retrace area which was also the globex highs and a LVN on the day. So I just bought as close to the 50 % retrace level as I could and I ended up being a point early again but my stop of 6 ticks kept me alive by 3 ticks. I ended up taking 3 points and ended the day up but down $200 for the week. I am break even for the month so far.

   I have noticed a few things this week one is that I have a problem with trying to guess what the market is trying to do. And the other is I trade with fear. Fear of losing money and fear of missing out on something. And I think that the fear in my trading is what is making me try and guess what the market is trying to do. So I was considering trading on SIM for the week and see how this effects my trading decisions. Then I will have confirmation on whether or not my trading is driven by fear instead of logic.

Pre Market analysis 3-17-11 Thursday

News: CPI Index @8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15 AM, Leading indicators @ 10AM, Philadelphia Fed survey @ 10AM

Daily Chart notes: The market has been sliding down pretty hard on the back of the Japan crisis. We are in a down trend and have hit strong support. I will watch for a bounce to set up.

30 Min chart Notes: We are in a down trend on the 30 min as well and putting in nice rotation in a falling wedge type pattern.

MP notes: It looks like we have a range setting up on the profile. Globex has been trending higher most of the session. We are mid range and could retest the 1282-1285 area today. We also have a P shape on the vol profile.

Trade plan: ES sold off yesterday down to strong support around 1240-1242 area and we bounced from there showing us that the responsive buyers were active. We traded back up into the day's range and closed around 1252 area. The sellers are still in control but we are wedging lower so i will keep an eye on a bounce forming. On the profile i can see ES trading back up into resistance at 1280-1285 area were there may be responsive sellers active. Over all the sellers are in control and i will look to take short opps around the resistance levels. I may look for long setups back up into the highs of the developing balance area.