Pre market analysis 8-3-11 Wednesday

Trying to get into my routine...

News: ADP employment report @ 8:30AM, factory orders @ 10AM, ISM non Mfg orders @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Trade plan) Globex stayed in a small range most of the night and popped back up above the 1252.25 previous swing low from the balance area. Es traded up to 1257 resistance and rotated back down to the 1252 area and is currently in that small range. Sellers are in control and the expectation is for them to be active on any push up into resistance. I have 57-59 area a break above that will bring the 65-67 (strong area) area into play a break above that would signal buyer strength and shift short term control back to the buyers. Then the 1270 nvpoc from yesterday. On the down side i have 1243 where globex lows stopped at and 1235-1237 area. We could see buyers active there except for a news release that is really bearish. Over all we are at some previous swing low areas and the sellers will either keep pushing down or the buyers will step in hard and move the market back up into value. I will look for shorts at resistance and possible longs at support after i see signs of sellers exhausting at support. This HS neckline break could be a fake out and i will need to see follow through today from the sellers in order to validate the pattern.

End of day review 6-2-11 Thursday

Im going to try and get these out quicker but some time its hard with the job and all. So some times i have to do it at home and then i still find it hard to find the time.

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened at the lows of yesterday range and the price action was pretty jumpy for the first hour. We traded down to the 1307-1309 level of support and bounced from there back up to the 1317 area then pulled back into the 50% retrace and went for a stab at the IBH. Sellers were active there and we got the full rotation back down breaking IBL and testing the 1305.50 level where buyers were active. After a few small rotation ES broke back above the IBL and buyer were active on any PBs as they tried to push back up into the IBH. Sellers were still active and we rotated back down

 (Trade plan) I was expecting a balanced session today after the big move down and the NFP number tomorrow. So my plan was pretty much right on with the markets action today. We balanced mostly in the IB.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: (Technical) I tried to get long here on a FB of the previous day’s lows. We popped back above the level and I got long and was quickly stopped out for – 6 ticks. A short here would have been better. After it broke down it retraced up to that area where I had a level, so selling 12.25 was the ticket.

(Emotional) I felt like I was trying too hard on this trade because I clearly jumped the gun and tried to get long. I was obviously trading with fear of missing out here.

(Grade) F-

2^nd trade: (Technical) This time I got short on the move back up into that same level and I took a scratch because price wasn’t acting correct for me. Good call because I would have been stopped out.

(Emotional) I think on this one I was better on executing and I was quick to scratch and both were the correct thing to do. I forgot why exactly I scratch. Tomorrow I’m going to keep better per trade records throughout the day so when I review at the end of the day I’m not drawing a blank.

(Grade) B-

3^rd Trade: (Technical) On this trade I took a little break on the loser this morning and got my head straight. I walked through the set up with my friends in the chat room and took a long based on the buying that came in and rejection below the 1313.00 area off the lows and the 50% retrace PB into my level. The trade was clean and nice with minimal heat.

(Emotional) This was my best feeling trade all day. I took my time and analyzed it nicely and pulled the trigger and took 3 points.

(Grade) A+

4^th trade: (Technical) Market tested the highs and sellers were active in front of the IBH so I took a short on a technical break and little retrace. This was the trade to look for more points on because of the probabilities of a IBL test was high. But I stuck to my trade plan and took 3 points on first and 4 on second which was more than my set target of 2 points so good trade.

(Emotional)I felt really good with this trade. My analysis was spot on.

(Grade) A+

5^th trade: (Technical)Market was breaking down and we broke the IBL so I took the quick retrace and was only targeting the 1305.50 level as i felt the market wanted to test this area so it was a likely place to close the trade.

(Emotional)I was a little nervous selling so low on the day and after the big move we already had but I took it any way and was glad I did. Just need to be cautious on trades like this because they can fly up in your face quickly but I had momentum behind me.

(Grade) A

6^th trade: (Technical) Market bounced off the 1305.50 level as expected and I went long with target at IBL which was good. The only problem is that I should have held for more as it was likely the market would test back up into the range. See 15 min chart.

(Emotional) I felt good on this trade because I was confident the bottom was in for the time being and the risk was on the short side.

(Grade) A

7^th trade: (Technical) Now here’s where I get stupid and start taking stupid trades that eat into my profits. I tried a short at 50% retrace and previous day’s lows. The buyers had stepped in and we just came off the 1305.50 level which was significant. The buyers were in control of the market and the context wasn’t saying to get short just yet. A better short would have been the test of the 1311.50-1313.50 level I had on the chart. Over all the buyers were active on any PBs so selling right in that spot wasn’t good risk control I needed to see more of a stall in price and a reaction from the sellers before trying a short on a move controlled by the buyers.

(Emotional) At the time I felt good about this trade but I was also still on my high from this morning. As the market moved against me I started to realize that I was wrong but I wanted the market to take me out and it did lol.

(Grade)F

8^th trade: (Technical) Thank you sir may I have another!!! This one seemed ok because we failed at the highs on the move up so I was looking to get short for a move lower. I took a short of the trend line break but buyers were active on the other side. At the time the market was driven by news of ECB stuff and Greece. I should have checked the wires to see what was happening so im chalking this one up to not paying attention. The set up and context looked good other then the market not testing the IBH before moving lower. At the time the book was thin which was a sign traders were on the side lines for the moment.

(Emotional) I felt good on this one and I liked the set up I think it was just because of the news releases out at the time

(Grade)B

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was a little off guard this morning but was able to get back in the saddle. Over all I think my trading was good. I should have locked in some more profits on the day but hey what can I do … I m still learning. I did do to many trades today also. I had 8 trades today and I think I should have had only 4 at the most so I over traded a little today but still ended the day up.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: B

Pre market analysis 6-2-11 Thursday

News: Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, And Factory orders @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES sell off pretty hard catching alot of people off guard. We sold off back to the 1313cvpoc and closed there. Vpoc shifted all the way down to 1313.25 and we could see more down side in the coming days/weeks. Globex has mostly balanced all night with an upside bias.

(Trade plan) After yesterdays big move lower I'm expecting a balanced session today. Usually after a big move the market will consolidate as it accepts the new prices it is at. Globex has placed value at the lower end of yesterdays profile show that the sentiment is still bearish. So today i will watch the open and gauge the participation of the market and go from there. Over all i will be looking to sell at resistance as i expect sellers to be active at any resistance areas. And because I'm expecting a balanced session i will be looking for longs at support but will be cautious on the long side. 

End of day review Tuesday 5-3-11

Es opened and traded down to naked vpoc at 1352.75 we bounced from there back up to 1 tick in front of the IBH at 1357.00. I wanted to see ES trade a little beyond the IBH or at least touch it so I didn’t look at selling this area. Also I didn’t have my levels at 1356.75-1358.50 set in the correct place this morning so the market didn’t trade up into my level and that’s why I wanted 58 to trade. If I had my levels in the correct place the market would have hit that area just nicely and I would have taken a short there. I was off by 2 ticks to high. Will watch for that next time it’s just a matter of experience. Then the market proceeded to move lower and we had a little bounce at IBL so on the retest I went long (#1) which looking back was bad trade location because my trade level was at 1349.50-1351.00 and IBL was at 1352.00 so needless to say we broke below and I was stopped out for 6 ticks. We got a little bounce at globex low and then a retrace back up into IBL which would have been a good area to sell against and go with the momentum. After moving lower I still believed in the long side so I tried again (#2) at 1350.25 long and failed to bounce and was stopped again for 6 ticks. It looked good for a long here and the location was good except the market didn’t want to trade higher and I should have realized that and not tried the next trade. At this time I would have been better off walking away but I tried again (#3) long at 1350.25 lol and was stopped again for 2.25 points on that because stilled believed in the long side. So finally I stepped away and came back in a little bit after re-centering myself. Now we were in an area I identified in my morning trade plan as an area “we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well”. It would have been great trying to trade from the long side but when you get stopped 3 times in a row the market is trying to tell me something so listen up… Then the market bounced at my support 3 points back up into ON low where it would have been good for a short to trade back lower and was good for 3 points. Now longs are looking good here with the divergence in the ticks and my delta indicator. So I finally got long but my entrance was off again but my 6 tick stop kept me in. Now I did something  here I usually never do and I added to my position after realizing my entry was off I didn’t move my stop but I bought 2 more at 1346.25 and now have 4 riding up for 3 points target. The target was achieved and I had 1 runner for a target of 51 and I chickened out and took it off at 49 for the same 3 when clearly the next target was IBL at 1352 area.

   To sum up my trading for the day I obviously had fear of missing something because I kept taking trades trying to pick were the market was going to turn as opposed to letting the market tell me where and when to put my trade on. The short term trend was down and I should have been looking to sell areas. The market didn’t give any reason to get long in my areas other than the 1345-1347 area which was clear as day. I think I need to sit back and relax a little bit and read the price action and not be afraid to miss something.

   The trades I should have taken was long at first touch of my level at at ON low I would have been in front a point or so and could have scratched for BE. After 49 broke I should have been looking for shorts and could have taken a short at retest of ON low. If I didn’t like that then a long on first touch of my 1345-1347 area and first target would have been retest of ON low. Then the long at 1346.25 was the ideal trade of the day for a nice bounce back up. All in due time… I have to keep evolving in my psychology and market read of price action.

Pre market analysis Tuesday 5-3-11

News: Factory orders @ 10 AM

Trade plan: So the market has been grinding higher and I was expecting a balanced session yesterday and most of this week. For the most part the day was balanced but we did start to see some responsive sellers step in and move the market lower in yesterday’s session. Value expanded and the range on the day got bigger (13 points or so) then the recent norm. And the vpoc shifted lower throughout the day closing at 1357.75. With the recent uptrend the market could use a little breather so a pullback wouldn’t be unexpected. The question is how far will it pullback? Over all buyers are still in control and im bullish above the 1349-1351 level short term. Without any real market moving catalyst tomorrow im expecting a range bound day to take place. Globex has been establishing value lower throughout the night building acceptance at 1354.50. We currently are bouncing off of the 1349.50-1351.00 level as i expect buyers to maintain this area to remain in control.

Bull scenario:

Value built lower yesterday and in globex so im becoming a little more bearish. I still believe buyers are in control above 1349.50-1351.00 area short term but sellers could test below that level today so i will be cautious getting long there although i do expect a bounce on first touch of this area. Below that area we could get a fast liquidation down to the 1340-1342 area where i expect buyers to be active as well and will be looking for long opps as well. If trade is slow and balanced we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well. Over all buyers in control and context is bullish above the 1349-1351 area so i will be looking for rotation at each support level below unless we get an OD type open.

Bear scenario:

For the short side i will be looking for shorts at resistance if the day sets up as being balanced. After the responsive move lower yesterday i believe the buyers are getting weak up here and the sellers are starting to step in. If this is the case then i will start to see more of a reaction from the sellers at resistance areas. In which case i will be looking to sell the rotations off of the resistance levels. I have resistance level and globex highs at 1357-1359 area which is also the vpoc from yesterday and if sellers are going to continue their selling they will want the market below this area a break above that could bring in a test of the highs again. I have resistance at the highs at 1366.50-1368.00 but i will be cautious selling the highs of the year as we could break higher again. There is also minor resistance at 1361.75 and we could see a reaction there as well.