End of day review 6-8-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened below value and responsive buyers were active on the open. We tested back up into the lows of the previous day’s range and found the sellers active pushing ES back below the previous day’s lows and down into the 1279 area of support. Buyers were active there pushing ES back up to the HOD and breaking the IBH and testing the down trend line from a higher time frame. We moved back into the day’s range and chopped around the vpoc for a while. The day went into a small rotational type trade around the day’s vpoc. We formed a triangle and broke out of it later in the days to the down side testing the IBL and the 1277 area of support. I missed that area as support but was watching it throughout the day. Buyers were active there and we had a nice bounce back up and then a retest to the 1277 area. We broke it by a tick and buyers stepped in pushing back up into the day’s vpoc and testing the uptrend line from the morning session which was a sweet area to get short to look for a rotation and trend continuation back to the lows. It was a good 6 point trade. ES closed below value and at the lows again today.

(Trade plan)

Trades review: (Hypothetical) see 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: Set up: break and retrace

(Technical) Market tested up then sold off so I took the retrace at previous day’s lows to join the selling.

(Emotional)I felt good about the trade because I was looking for a flush type move to find the buyers. My only issue is that I was a little greedy on the trade. I took one off for 3 points but let the other run and took BE on the second. 1279 was a very reasonable area to scale out or in my case close the trade because that’s what my plan is for now. When I get on at least 5 lots I plan on looking for runners. For now I need to build capital with the 2-3 points trades and get all out.

(Execution Grade)Execution was good. I only took a few ticks of heat and it followed through quickly.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I had a lot of stuff going on today at work so I couldn’t follow the market very well today. The times I was able to follow along I was never able to stay long enough to watch anything follow through or to have a firm grasp on what was taking place.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+ because I didn’t do anything stupid today in the face of being busy with work. That was my issue back in March.

Following my rules: A+

Emotions in check: A+ All good in that area today. I didn’t feel any reason to “have to trade”

Pre market analysis 6-8-11 Wednesday

News: Beige book @ 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES has been in a down trend the last few weeks. Each session has been placing value lower down and the vpoc has been shifting lower as well. Yesterday's session traded most of its value in the upper part of the previous days session showing that the market wants to trade higher. Late afternoon the market broke down below that value and closed at the previous day's lows and closed below the day's value at the lows leaving us with a P shape profile. This type of profile is still considered a short covering day but the market sold off to find where the buyers where sitting at. Globe has still traded lower placing all its value below the previous days value. This gives us a bearish macro structure and means we may trade lower. I believe we are due for a bounce and that's just my gut feeling. I will not base any trade decisions off of that. I will trade what i see as it develops.  We are set to open below value and that could bring in responsive buyers.

(Trade plan) With the bearish macro structure in place this morning i will be looking for a test of the areas below. I expect responsive buyers to be active at support areas but will be cautious on longs. I also expect sellers to be act at resistance levels above. We have beige book out at 2PM so we could just have some movement in the AM and balance up to the release. Also we have a neutral weekly IB and im expecting areas to hold.

End of day review 4-13-11 Wednesday

Today i traded my plan for the most part but i still am struggling with the same issue i have been having over the past few sessions. And that is thinking i know what the market is trying to do and not letting the charts tell me. I need to trade what i see and not what i think. That issue kept me out of a few good trades today and i should have been up at least 6-8 points had i taken all the trades that were a part of my plan. Instead i only took one and it worked out well. The others would have all been good trades as well. The long at 1305.50 area i missed because i was at work. So tomorrow i continue writing in my hand written journal and coming up with trade ideas and trading what i see. It has been very helpful doing this and i can only see good things come from it.

Pre market analysis 4-13-11 Wednesday

News: Retail sales @ 8:30AM, Business Inventories @ 10AM, Beige book @ 2PM

Trade plan: Yesterday saw ES trade down to the 1304-1306 area CLVN and bounced there. It seems we have put in a short term bottom at that price. Globex has been trending  higher all night showing that the buyers are coming back into the market. At this point im looking to buy pull backs into support areas. I have support at 1314.25-1315.75 and i expect buyers to be active there if they are to stay in control. If we start to trade back into yesterdays range then the CVPOC will come back into play although im not looking to use that area as a level for longs. I will use the 1307.50-1309.00 level to get long from which is also globex lows. In case we break below them areas i expect the 1305.25-1306.50 level to hold as i believe buyers will be active there. For shorts i will be looking at the 1319.50-1321.00 area as this is the lower balance area of the recent range a break above that will confirm buyers in control and i will only be looking for small rotations at the resistance areas above unless we get really extended above recent value.

Pre Market Analysis 3-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP employment report @8:15AM, Beige book @ 2 PM

Daily chart notes: ES sold off hard yesterday showing that we may be starting a new down trend. We stopped right at the major uptrend line from the lows back in august.
We have strong support at 1293 area a break and hold below this would confirm a down trend. We also have 50 MA right below the 1293 area that could act as support. We may also just stay and chop in this bigger range area of 1293-1342. Bottom line is we are still in a strong uptrend.

MP Notes: ES traded almost to the top of the range and sold off hard in yesterday's trading. We had a big trend day down and globex is forming value below yesterdays lows giving us a bearish macro structure. It is a strong possibility that we continue to move lower but usually after such a big move we will consolidate.

Trade plan: For today i will be looking to sell any resistance levels as i believe that responsive sellers will be active on first touch of these areas. I will stay cautious on the long side and will not be looking to be a buyer so quickly. If we do continue to move lower i will be more inclined to be a buyer at support areas below yesterday's trading. In the event we move higher the first area i will be looking at is the globex highs to play the bearish macro structure. Be patient and relax :)