End of day review 3-16-11 Wednesday

ES opened and chopped around for some time. We started chopping higher than some news about Japan and the nuclear issues over there came out and ES sold down 20points retesting yesterdays lows. We then put in a few bounces into resistance and proceeded to chop around a little longer. After testing resistance at lunch time we sold off hard again find new levels of support at around 1241s which was quickly rejected and snapped back up 20 points back into the range of yesterday. My levels worked well today I'm happy with them. I just missed some good opps due to work and lunch time. But that's ok i will catch them next time. Going to start keeping a list of "stuff to work on" and review every day and night to ingrain it into my subconscious mind. 2 trades today 1 for +2 points and 1 for -2 points so BE day for me.

Stuff i need to work on:

1.       Stop trying to guess what is going to happen. I find that i say something like "the picture was bullish yesterday so wecould trade back up into so and so area" Instead of reading my charts and taking a trade based on that.

Pre Market Analysis 3-16-11 Wednesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM

Daily chart notes: The market is still in a down trend and bounced off of the 50% retrace level from the beginning of the last move up on 12-1-10.

30 Min chart notes: The 30 min chart still is in a down trend and needs to be monitored for follow through in either direction.

Mp Notes: The profile has been building value lower down. Globex has stayed inside of yesterday value area giving me no real indication of a change in sentiment.

Trade plan: ES traded higher yesterday after being down 40 points before cash open. we managed to regain alot of ground lost. Its hard to say what i think could happen we are still in an down trend and that could be just a pullback in the down trend. Im going to wait for the market to open to get an idea of what to expect today. Only a few news release out today so not expecting much from them.

Pre Market analysis 3-9-11 Wednesday

New: No news out today

Daily chart notes: Market still in this balance area with acceptance at 1317 area.

Mp Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and globex stayed in that value area over night as expected. We formed a p pattern telling us the market wants to trade higher so i will monitor for follow through.

Trade plan: Es globex stayed between 1318 vpoc and 1325 Tuesday highs with acceptance at 1320.75 just below Tuesdays area of acceptance. I want to see ES stay above the big vpoc at 1318. If we break below that that could open the doors for a test of the 1310 area then 1303 area below that. Above that we have resistance at 1325-1327 area and strong resistance at 1334-1336 area where i expect buying to shut off. With no news out today I'm expecting a balanced session to play out and looking for selling opps at resistance areas and buying opps at support areas.

Pre Market Analysis 3-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP employment report @8:15AM, Beige book @ 2 PM

Daily chart notes: ES sold off hard yesterday showing that we may be starting a new down trend. We stopped right at the major uptrend line from the lows back in august.
We have strong support at 1293 area a break and hold below this would confirm a down trend. We also have 50 MA right below the 1293 area that could act as support. We may also just stay and chop in this bigger range area of 1293-1342. Bottom line is we are still in a strong uptrend.

MP Notes: ES traded almost to the top of the range and sold off hard in yesterday's trading. We had a big trend day down and globex is forming value below yesterdays lows giving us a bearish macro structure. It is a strong possibility that we continue to move lower but usually after such a big move we will consolidate.

Trade plan: For today i will be looking to sell any resistance levels as i believe that responsive sellers will be active on first touch of these areas. I will stay cautious on the long side and will not be looking to be a buyer so quickly. If we do continue to move lower i will be more inclined to be a buyer at support areas below yesterday's trading. In the event we move higher the first area i will be looking at is the globex highs to play the bearish macro structure. Be patient and relax :)

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.