End of day review 3-29-11 Tuesday

ES opened and tested the 1299-1300 area before the figure release so i wasn't interested in getting long in front of the econ number. The number was out worse than expected and Es started to take off to the upside and pulled back to the 1304.75-1305.75 level i had  which would have been a good long trade but i was short at globex highs and wasnt thinking to get long I ended up scratching when it came back up. after that it was a slow grind higher and no opps to get long on any pullbacks so i sat out rest of the day. With ES back above the 1309-1311 level my expectation is for new highs over the next few days. I will wait and see what globex does and go from there in the morning.

Pre market analysis 3-29-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: The daily chart saw a little selling but no real damage to the uptrend from the lows. Something to take note of is that we hit the bigger down trend line from the highs.

Trade plan: ES has been trending higher and the sold off yesterday late in the trading session. Globex has traded back up into resistance at 1307.50 and rotated back down to the lows of yesterday at 1301.75 building acceptance at 1304.25. Globex seems to be balanced for now. We have pre market resistance at 1308.25 and a break above that will bring the initial resistance area at 1309.50-1311 level into play where we could find responsive sellers active being that it's the major CVPOC. A break above that area would be a caution for sellers and i will not so aggressive on the short side as we could get some more upside trading. I will look more for shorts around 1320-1321 area. For the down side i expect buyers to still be active at the support levels laid out below. We have pre market support at 1301.50 and initial support at 1299-1301 where i expect buyers to be active. Below that we could get a quick move down to 1295-1296 and the 1291-1293 where i still expect buyers to be active.

Pre Market analysis 2-22-11 Tuesday

News: S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9AM, Consumer Confidence @10AM

Daily Chart notes: ES has been in a slow grind higher on really low volume. Recently we have seen ES break the daily wedge due to the political unrest in the Middle East.

MP Notes: WE sold off during Monday holiday trading and globex has seen ES trade down to the 1322 support level and this has held overnight giving ES a rotation back up. We have a bearish macro with globex value lower than Monday’s session. But given the holiday trade I need to wait for this to play out. Currently we are filling in the C pattern on the weekly profile and with only consumer confidence number released today we could trade around here for the session.

Trade plan: ES has been showing some signs of weakness the past 2 sessions. We have traded down to 1322 area of support and bounced there. The recent action can be viewed as a pullback in this big uptrend. The big picture buyers are still in control and they will not want to see this below 1319-1320 area. I expect the buyers to keep ES above this area and will look to play longs at support for a rotation back up into value high around 1342 area. If the selling continues on the back of a bad consumer confidence number or more Middle East unrest then a break of this support area is likely and I will look to be a seller on any retracements. I expect the 1310-1308 area to hold and the selling to shut off by then. Over all we are having some vertical development and could see ES trade lower today if the buyers can’t keep the market up. If they can then we could be working with the new developing balance are of 1319-1342 but this is yet to be seen.

Pre Market Analysis 1-25-11 Tuesday

News: FOMC meeting begins, S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9:00AM, Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: Market has been forming a new range from 1268-1295 we are currently in the middle of that range and at the most excepted prices. Over all the market has been in an uptrend and no signs of changing as of yet. I want to see ES above 1268 and 1258 to keep longer term bullish bias going forward. We have broken out of a rising wedge and are retesting the back part of the bottom trend line so this could give a little bit of selling.

MP Notes: ES has been in the middle of the forming balance area. 1268-1295. Globex tried to move higher over night but has since sold down a little bit. Globex value is in the same area as yesterdays value indicating no real shift in sentiment from yesterday. ES did manage to close above established value and formed a P shape on the day showing signs of a continued move up is likely. ES has been filling in the low volume area on the 60 min chart that has the profile on it. ES is still around CVPOC at 1282

Trade plan: So we finally have a few figures out today (see above) We are in the middle of the developing balance area and at CVPOC which is an area of usually choppy price action. So with the catalyst out today hopefully we will be able to move out of this area. Im not to eager to get into any trades around this area. ES has tested the upper part of the value area last night at 1291.75 and was meet with responsive sellers pushing ES down to1282 as of writing this. A break and hold below 1277-1279 area could lead to a move lower to test 1273.50-1275.50 CLVN area. A move below that will be a red flag for buyers as a test of the lower end of the range at 1268 is likely in which case if we test the 1268 area i will look for long opps there as i expect selling to shut off around there. I will look to be a responsive buyer at the support areas below that are laid out on the 30 min chart because of the over ll context being bullish (daily uptrend). If ES manages to hold above 1277-1279 and the CVPOC at 1282 then the expectation is for ES to move higher. If ES moves higher i will look to be a responsive seller above value at the resistance levels on the 30 min chart around globex highs area. Over all in gonna be patient and see how the market reacts to the news release at 10AM EST