Pre market analysis 8-4-11 Thursday

News: jobless claims @ 8:30AM,

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Trade plan) Yesterday ES had a reversal day. We traded down below the march swing lows and buyers were active pushing ES back above. Buyers stayed in control for the remainder of the day and closing on the highs. Globex traded up into 64.25 resistance area and trended lower throughout the night and bounced at 1240.50 which was HVN and LVA on yesterday session. Buyers were active there and ES bounced and is currently at 1246.50 and moving higher. The expectation for today is for responsive buyers to be active at support and push ES back up into the weekly range. Im also expecting sellers to be active at resistance areas but favor the buyers. Sentiment is still bearish so i will be cautious on the long side as we may get follow through to the down side if we stay below the 64-66 area. A break above that area would confirm buyers in control. The main catalyst today is the jobless claims then NFP tomorrow. We may not see to much action today as the market will wait for the NFP numbers. But given the recent volatility it could still be very whippy action.

End of day review 6-23-11 Thursday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) The market gapped down and sellers continued to sell but it was slow and choppy. Buyers took market back up almost filling the gap.

(Trade plan)

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Range trade

(Technical) We poked above the IBH on a balanced day. I saw some rejection so I decided to take a short. I was a little early and we popped up and I was stopped out for -2 points. The market did go my way right after the pop but I had to keep it tight because I didn’t know if it was going to reverse or not.

(Corrections) The market was in a trending move up and there was strong buying coming into that IBH area. I shouldn’t have been looking at shorts at that time. Better shorts were after we broke back inside the IB or the break of the trend line.

(Emotional) I fell as if I jumped into this trade. So I will consider this an impulse trade. I should have not got short in front of a strong up move. It was trending clear as day.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -2 points

2^st trade: Type of Set up: Range trade

(Technical) We broke back inside of the IBH and I tried to take a short back into the IBH. The market popped back above and into the resistance level just above the IBH and I was stopped to the tick and the market reversed back lower hitting my target

(Emotional) I think I was pissed about the first trade and I jumped back in to quickly.

(Corrections) I will have to say that this was a revenge/impulse trade. The IBH wasn’t a clean level to trade off of because of the way the market opened this morning.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -1.5 Points

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: What a day and week it has been. I am going through the same shit I went through a few months ago with my emotions and work. It seems as I get distracted with work I start to do bad in trading. And I’m realizing that trading is mostly a mental process that cannot be done while there are distractions that constantly pull you out of the zone so to speak. I need to realize that and adjust accordingly.

BSO Points for the day: -3.50 points

Winners: 0

Losers: 2

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: F

Following my rules: F

Emotions in check: F

Pre market analysis 6-23-11 Thursday

Been busy with work the past week so trying to keep up as much as possible. Has a few losing days but very small relative to past performance. I realize that work is screwing me up again so i have backed off a little bit as per my observations the last time i started doing bad when work interfered.

News: Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, New home sales @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday ES traded up into 1292-1294 resistance area which was the top of the balance area. After the Fed announcement the market sold off showing that the sellers were active at the top of the balance area. Value established higher but the sellers took control and closed the day on the lows and below the day's value. Globex has since traded lower showing that the sellers are still in control.

(Trade plan) We have new home sales out after the open and we could get some balancing before the release. Sellers have taken back control and im expecting resistance to hold. We are set to open below value so it could attract responsive buyers so i will be watching for that on the open swing. As long as we stay below the 1286 area i will be bearish. Above that and i expect a push above the recent highs.

Pre market analysis 6-16-11 Thursday

News: housing starts @ 8:30AM, jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Philly fed survey @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES sell off to the lower end of the balance area we have recently been in. We broke lower and consolidated at the bottom of the range. Responsive buyers were active below the range and we held this area throughout the rest of the session and into globex as well. Globex has placed value in the same area as the majority of the value was placed in yesterday's session. Buyers are active at the 1256 area for now. The weekly IB was bullish but i have turned to neutral due to the big sell off yesterday. The macro structure is bearish with globex value placed at the lower end of the previous day's session. We have news releases out at 8:30 AM that could give ES a move in either direction so i will wait fro them to hit the market and see the reaction before finalizing my analysis for the day.

(Trade plan) The plan is to wait for the econ release to hit the market at 8:30 and 10AM then go from there. We are at the lower end of the balance area we are in and the expectation is for responsive buyers to be active here. So i will be looking for support to hold and will look for longs back up into the range. In the case we break down below support levels on my chart i will be looking to join the selling and will look for the buyers at 1243-1245 area and possibly lower if the selling is strong.

End of day review 6-2-11 Thursday

Im going to try and get these out quicker but some time its hard with the job and all. So some times i have to do it at home and then i still find it hard to find the time.

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened at the lows of yesterday range and the price action was pretty jumpy for the first hour. We traded down to the 1307-1309 level of support and bounced from there back up to the 1317 area then pulled back into the 50% retrace and went for a stab at the IBH. Sellers were active there and we got the full rotation back down breaking IBL and testing the 1305.50 level where buyers were active. After a few small rotation ES broke back above the IBL and buyer were active on any PBs as they tried to push back up into the IBH. Sellers were still active and we rotated back down

 (Trade plan) I was expecting a balanced session today after the big move down and the NFP number tomorrow. So my plan was pretty much right on with the markets action today. We balanced mostly in the IB.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: (Technical) I tried to get long here on a FB of the previous day’s lows. We popped back above the level and I got long and was quickly stopped out for – 6 ticks. A short here would have been better. After it broke down it retraced up to that area where I had a level, so selling 12.25 was the ticket.

(Emotional) I felt like I was trying too hard on this trade because I clearly jumped the gun and tried to get long. I was obviously trading with fear of missing out here.

(Grade) F-

2^nd trade: (Technical) This time I got short on the move back up into that same level and I took a scratch because price wasn’t acting correct for me. Good call because I would have been stopped out.

(Emotional) I think on this one I was better on executing and I was quick to scratch and both were the correct thing to do. I forgot why exactly I scratch. Tomorrow I’m going to keep better per trade records throughout the day so when I review at the end of the day I’m not drawing a blank.

(Grade) B-

3^rd Trade: (Technical) On this trade I took a little break on the loser this morning and got my head straight. I walked through the set up with my friends in the chat room and took a long based on the buying that came in and rejection below the 1313.00 area off the lows and the 50% retrace PB into my level. The trade was clean and nice with minimal heat.

(Emotional) This was my best feeling trade all day. I took my time and analyzed it nicely and pulled the trigger and took 3 points.

(Grade) A+

4^th trade: (Technical) Market tested the highs and sellers were active in front of the IBH so I took a short on a technical break and little retrace. This was the trade to look for more points on because of the probabilities of a IBL test was high. But I stuck to my trade plan and took 3 points on first and 4 on second which was more than my set target of 2 points so good trade.

(Emotional)I felt really good with this trade. My analysis was spot on.

(Grade) A+

5^th trade: (Technical)Market was breaking down and we broke the IBL so I took the quick retrace and was only targeting the 1305.50 level as i felt the market wanted to test this area so it was a likely place to close the trade.

(Emotional)I was a little nervous selling so low on the day and after the big move we already had but I took it any way and was glad I did. Just need to be cautious on trades like this because they can fly up in your face quickly but I had momentum behind me.

(Grade) A

6^th trade: (Technical) Market bounced off the 1305.50 level as expected and I went long with target at IBL which was good. The only problem is that I should have held for more as it was likely the market would test back up into the range. See 15 min chart.

(Emotional) I felt good on this trade because I was confident the bottom was in for the time being and the risk was on the short side.

(Grade) A

7^th trade: (Technical) Now here’s where I get stupid and start taking stupid trades that eat into my profits. I tried a short at 50% retrace and previous day’s lows. The buyers had stepped in and we just came off the 1305.50 level which was significant. The buyers were in control of the market and the context wasn’t saying to get short just yet. A better short would have been the test of the 1311.50-1313.50 level I had on the chart. Over all the buyers were active on any PBs so selling right in that spot wasn’t good risk control I needed to see more of a stall in price and a reaction from the sellers before trying a short on a move controlled by the buyers.

(Emotional) At the time I felt good about this trade but I was also still on my high from this morning. As the market moved against me I started to realize that I was wrong but I wanted the market to take me out and it did lol.

(Grade)F

8^th trade: (Technical) Thank you sir may I have another!!! This one seemed ok because we failed at the highs on the move up so I was looking to get short for a move lower. I took a short of the trend line break but buyers were active on the other side. At the time the market was driven by news of ECB stuff and Greece. I should have checked the wires to see what was happening so im chalking this one up to not paying attention. The set up and context looked good other then the market not testing the IBH before moving lower. At the time the book was thin which was a sign traders were on the side lines for the moment.

(Emotional) I felt good on this one and I liked the set up I think it was just because of the news releases out at the time

(Grade)B

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was a little off guard this morning but was able to get back in the saddle. Over all I think my trading was good. I should have locked in some more profits on the day but hey what can I do … I m still learning. I did do to many trades today also. I had 8 trades today and I think I should have had only 4 at the most so I over traded a little today but still ended the day up.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: B