Pre market analysis 6-21-11 Tuesday

News: FOMC meeting begins, Existing home sales @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday was a low vol up day and remained inside of the balance area and most recent past few days balance area as well. The market isn't in a hurry to get out of this area. Globex has traded higher in the overnight session showing that buyers are still in control. Globex tested the 1281 level that had been a target for a while now.

(Trade plan) Today we have FOMC meeting begins and I'm not expecting too much to develop today. I believe the boarder market will be waiting for the FOMC announcement tomorrow and this could give us another low vol day. We do have existing home sale today but i don't think that release will have any impact on the market. We are still in a balance area and the market has been chopping back and forth inside of it. Globex has traded higher testing the 1281 area. The control is still in the bulls hands and we could see higher prices today but like i said i believe this will be limited action. I will be looking for opps at my support and resistance levels on the chart as I'm expecting a balanced session today.

End of day review 4-27-11 Wednesday

So there was one set up for me that i waited a little too long for confirmation on. It was at the globex lows area which was a perfect long opp. I was ready for it but we got a little pop of buying and i put my order in just below a block of buy7ing and it never filled it so i let it go. So no trades for me today. The most important thing for me today is i followed my rules not breaking any of them. The market acted as i expected today with ES balancing before the FOMC announcement at 12:30PM. After that Ben Bernanke spoke for about an hour starting at 2:15PM and that was pretty much the day. Buyers are still firmly in control and it will be interesting to see what tomorrow and the rest of the week brings.

Pre market analysis 4-27-11 Wednesday

News: FOMC meeting announcement @ 12:30 PM

Trade plan: ES yesterday broke the top of the bigger balance area making new highs on the year. We spent the day establishing value above the 1337-1338 previous high of year. Globex has now traded in a range before the cash open. My expectation today is for ES to balance in a range before the FOMC release at 12:30PM. I will evaluate the reaction at that time to decide the direction i want to trade in. Over all ES is very bullish at the moment and buyers are in full control still. If the buyers can't manage to keep ES above the 1338 level we could see a FB type scenario and a possible retest of areas inside the range. I will be patient and follow my rules and if nothing sets up then i don't trade.

End of day Review 3-15-11 Tuesday

The market open and responsive buyers were active off the open. there were a few nice pullbacks along the way to join the move but for some reason i scratched my long. Mostly due to the uncertainty of what could happen. ES moved higher throughout the day and chopped a little it ahead of the FOMC at 2:15 pm. Buyers came in any chance they could and pushed ES to new highs on the day. I was waiting for a reversal at some point but it never came and i sat bored mostly all day. What else is new lol. Levels traded well today im happy with them. Need to focus more on reading the open of the market i should have tried longs more aggressively instead of waiting for a reversal. Read what the market is telling me don't make assumptions based off of what i think will happen. That's all folks ...

Pre Market Analysis 3-15-11 Tuesday

News: Empire state Mfg Survey @ 8:30AM, Housing market index @ 10AM, FOMC announcement @ 2:15PM

Daily chart notes:  Es has traded down to the 1254 area in the overnight session. So we will have a big gap down to deal with today. We are in a confirmed downtrend and i will be monitoring the bounces for strength.

30 Min Chart notes: The 30 min chart has been in a down trend and Fridays action seemed to be a pullback in the down trend. We have a massive selloff in globex session and this confirms we are in a down trend. I will monitor for weak bounces.

Trade plan: yesterday ES traded around the key support level chopping it all up. So i assumed we were going to have a range extension. We closed back up into the range by the end of the day erasing most of the day's losses. In globex we have had a massive move lower (40 +/- points) due to the Nuclear uncertainty in Japan. Its hard to say if we keep moving lower or not because this is a news driven event. We could snap back up at the open. We have FOMC out today later in the afternoon. So i usually would expect choppy price action leading up to that. But in light of globex action i really don't know what to expect today. What i do know is that ES was starting a new down trend and has sold off down to strong support at 1252-1254 so i will have to see if this area holds or not. If this area holds then i will be looking for selling opps around the resistance areas above as we start to put in a bounce. If we do break lower i will be looking for long opps after we have found some exhaustion selling and start to chop for a bit. So i will stay patient and wait for the open to see how the market reacts to the news.

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

So today was a good day with ES opening and trying to go lower then bouncing up into the highs of the balance area. This is where i got short and traded back down into 50% retrace level which ended up being a good target (see trades chart). Then we had FOMC announcement at 2:15PM and the market was dead leading up to that. So i waited till after the release to put on another trade but couldn't find anything to trade other than selling the top and i dint want to sell their due to the bullish context.

1st Trade: Took a short at the resistance zone which is the top of the balance area 1295-1268. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active up there due to the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Responsive sellers did step in and push ES down into a retrace level where i exited for 3 points. Felt good with this trade and was confident holding it for second target. I was patient and waited for the market to tell me when to get short. Most heat i took was 2 ticks.