End of day review 6-2-11 Thursday

Im going to try and get these out quicker but some time its hard with the job and all. So some times i have to do it at home and then i still find it hard to find the time.

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened at the lows of yesterday range and the price action was pretty jumpy for the first hour. We traded down to the 1307-1309 level of support and bounced from there back up to the 1317 area then pulled back into the 50% retrace and went for a stab at the IBH. Sellers were active there and we got the full rotation back down breaking IBL and testing the 1305.50 level where buyers were active. After a few small rotation ES broke back above the IBL and buyer were active on any PBs as they tried to push back up into the IBH. Sellers were still active and we rotated back down

 (Trade plan) I was expecting a balanced session today after the big move down and the NFP number tomorrow. So my plan was pretty much right on with the markets action today. We balanced mostly in the IB.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: (Technical) I tried to get long here on a FB of the previous day’s lows. We popped back above the level and I got long and was quickly stopped out for – 6 ticks. A short here would have been better. After it broke down it retraced up to that area where I had a level, so selling 12.25 was the ticket.

(Emotional) I felt like I was trying too hard on this trade because I clearly jumped the gun and tried to get long. I was obviously trading with fear of missing out here.

(Grade) F-

2^nd trade: (Technical) This time I got short on the move back up into that same level and I took a scratch because price wasn’t acting correct for me. Good call because I would have been stopped out.

(Emotional) I think on this one I was better on executing and I was quick to scratch and both were the correct thing to do. I forgot why exactly I scratch. Tomorrow I’m going to keep better per trade records throughout the day so when I review at the end of the day I’m not drawing a blank.

(Grade) B-

3^rd Trade: (Technical) On this trade I took a little break on the loser this morning and got my head straight. I walked through the set up with my friends in the chat room and took a long based on the buying that came in and rejection below the 1313.00 area off the lows and the 50% retrace PB into my level. The trade was clean and nice with minimal heat.

(Emotional) This was my best feeling trade all day. I took my time and analyzed it nicely and pulled the trigger and took 3 points.

(Grade) A+

4^th trade: (Technical) Market tested the highs and sellers were active in front of the IBH so I took a short on a technical break and little retrace. This was the trade to look for more points on because of the probabilities of a IBL test was high. But I stuck to my trade plan and took 3 points on first and 4 on second which was more than my set target of 2 points so good trade.

(Emotional)I felt really good with this trade. My analysis was spot on.

(Grade) A+

5^th trade: (Technical)Market was breaking down and we broke the IBL so I took the quick retrace and was only targeting the 1305.50 level as i felt the market wanted to test this area so it was a likely place to close the trade.

(Emotional)I was a little nervous selling so low on the day and after the big move we already had but I took it any way and was glad I did. Just need to be cautious on trades like this because they can fly up in your face quickly but I had momentum behind me.

(Grade) A

6^th trade: (Technical) Market bounced off the 1305.50 level as expected and I went long with target at IBL which was good. The only problem is that I should have held for more as it was likely the market would test back up into the range. See 15 min chart.

(Emotional) I felt good on this trade because I was confident the bottom was in for the time being and the risk was on the short side.

(Grade) A

7^th trade: (Technical) Now here’s where I get stupid and start taking stupid trades that eat into my profits. I tried a short at 50% retrace and previous day’s lows. The buyers had stepped in and we just came off the 1305.50 level which was significant. The buyers were in control of the market and the context wasn’t saying to get short just yet. A better short would have been the test of the 1311.50-1313.50 level I had on the chart. Over all the buyers were active on any PBs so selling right in that spot wasn’t good risk control I needed to see more of a stall in price and a reaction from the sellers before trying a short on a move controlled by the buyers.

(Emotional) At the time I felt good about this trade but I was also still on my high from this morning. As the market moved against me I started to realize that I was wrong but I wanted the market to take me out and it did lol.

(Grade)F

8^th trade: (Technical) Thank you sir may I have another!!! This one seemed ok because we failed at the highs on the move up so I was looking to get short for a move lower. I took a short of the trend line break but buyers were active on the other side. At the time the market was driven by news of ECB stuff and Greece. I should have checked the wires to see what was happening so im chalking this one up to not paying attention. The set up and context looked good other then the market not testing the IBH before moving lower. At the time the book was thin which was a sign traders were on the side lines for the moment.

(Emotional) I felt good on this one and I liked the set up I think it was just because of the news releases out at the time

(Grade)B

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was a little off guard this morning but was able to get back in the saddle. Over all I think my trading was good. I should have locked in some more profits on the day but hey what can I do … I m still learning. I did do to many trades today also. I had 8 trades today and I think I should have had only 4 at the most so I over traded a little today but still ended the day up.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: B

End of day review 3-3-11 Thursday

Es grinded higher all day with only on chance to get on at 1321.00 area. For some reason i scratched there maybe it was because i am a little scared to hold a trade after yesterday. but lesson learned. The next area is the top of the balance area around 1336.50 area. Tomorrow i will wait and see what happens with the NFP release and will more than likely be looking for responsive sellers at the top of the range.

 

Pre Market Analysis 3-3-11 Thursday

News: ECB announcement @ 7:45AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, ISM Non MFG Index @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been balancing in a recent balance area  1293-1336 an the expectation is for ES to continue to balance until we get a catalyst to move us out of this area. Es almost hit the bottom of the balance area and is now making its way back to the top area. We are mid range right now.

MP Notes: ES placed value higher up yesterday and globex is now trading higher placing value higher up as well. the expectation is for ES to continue its move higher up to the top of the range area.

Trade plan: With ES placing value higher up i have to expect ES to continue its move back to the other side of the bigger balance area (1336). We are pretty much neutral on the week in terms of a bias based on the weekly IB. So a rotation back up to the highs is not out of the question. I will be looking to buy support areas on my 30 min chart for moves up into resistance. As for the down side i will be a seller at resistance areas above but i will not initiate shorts to early. I will wait to see how the market reacts to the figures out before placing any trades in either direction.

End of day review 2-3-11 Thursday

So the market played out again as expected. I tried getting long twice on that move down to 1290s area only to be left in the dust. Market traded at my price twice and no fill both times and i wasn't about to go chasing the market. My morning plan called for me to be a buyer if we traded down into 1297-1295 area. As price approached that area momentum picked up and bids were disappearing so i had no interest in trying to get long at that level. My line in the sand was 1290-1291.75 area and after the prod into that level the market quickly rejected it showing me the buyers were active there. So that's where i tried getting long but no go. There was a little scalp trade at 50% retrace after the sell off but i was more interested in getting long and was expecting the market to move back through that retrace level. there was a long playing that range at 1298s but i was busy with work a didn't notice it till later on. Always tomorrow...

Pre Market Analysis 2-3-11 Thursday

News: Factory orders @ 10AM, ISM NON mfg index @ 10AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM

 Daily Chart notes:  We still have a break out situation and ES has been putting in value yesterday and in globex so we need to see ES hold above 1296.50 area to stay bullish.

MP Notes: ES is building value above recent balance area value and we have a 2 week POC at 1293 area giving market support. Globex has been in a small light volume balance area and has built out slightly lower than yesterday session. So we still have a bullish to neutral macro.

Trade Plan: With ES holding above 1296 area my bias will remain bullish. We have a few catalyst out today after market opens that could provide some movement out of this area in either direction. In the case of a bullish reaction i want get long around support at 1296 or 1290s area. I don't like getting long above that unless we break the highs and come back for a retest after building out a little bit of value up there. In the case of a bearish reaction i will look to short around the highs of the range or might be more aggressive at globex highs.  If we break below 1295-1297 area i will look to be a seller on a retest of that area and will target areas below for exits. Over all i will be patient and wait for the releases at 10AM and see how the market reacts to them and let the day set up before taking anything if im not sure about the set up.