End of day review 5-17-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action). Today was a down day and value was established lower and the vpoc shifted lower once again. The market opened below value attracting responsive buyers and we pushed up into yesterdays range a little bit. We had a little rotation down to the open price and buyers were still active pushing up into yesterday’s vpoc and my level at 1327.25-1328.75. The market stalled here for a few minutes and sold off breaking the IBL and testing the clvn at 1316.00 area. This area was rejected and buyer pushed back up into the day’s range where we had small rotations down as we trended higher in to the close.

(Trade plan) I kind of had to rush my morning trade plan because I was running late this morning. But basically I wanted to be a buyer at support and seller at my resistance areas. I was expecting more of a move today as we were at the lows of the balance area but the market just balanced in a decent range.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) The black circles are the hypothetical trades I could have taken.

(Actual) I had 2 trades today. See below.

1^st trade: I was short at 1328 even. I got this one perfectly. I was patient and waited for the right time to sell. And it paid off because the market followed through quickly. I couldn’t hold for more because I had to go back outside because of work. I would have left it to run if I had been a little more at ease and not felt rushed.

2^nd trade: I was long at 1324.75 after a big move up and a retrace. The trade quickly went in my favor but I moved my target up because I was expecting the market to rally into the close. But the buyers never followed through and I was stopped for BE. It was getting late in the session and I didn’t want to let the stop work because of a possible move against me late in the day. It would have been a quick clean 2 points and would have given me 4 points on the day.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the second trade got me thinking today. I really need to leave my targets alone. Because like I have said before I only need them 2 point trades to make it in trading. If I trade a 2 lot or a 20 lot I have to take the first 2 points to put some money in the bank. I can’t keep risking the 2 points that im up in hopes for more follow through. It’s not very good money management. I have to focus on consistency right now. As long as I can get in and get out with 2 points I will build consistency. And with consistency I will build my size up. Here is how I see it. I take a trade with 2 lots and I get filled for 2 points. That’s $200.00 bucks. If it keeps going oh well i made my target. On a 10 lot that 2 points is $1,000.00 bucks. It’s all about consistency and then size. Now I can choose to take 5 lots off for 2 points and let some ride to extended targets that would be $500 bucks in the bank and at least I can make something.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A

Pre market analysis 5-17-11 Tuesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower with vpoc established lower on the session compared to Fridays. Value shifted a little bit lower giving us a bearish tone to the market. We are still inside of the balance area but we are at the lower extremes of it. The market is sitting at an area where it is very vulnerable to a sell off. Globex established value lower down as well so we have bearish sentiment heading into the days trading.

(Trade plan) The plan today is to watch the open and let the day set up to gauge the control. If buyers step in down here we could see higher prices and in which case i will be looking for longs at my support levels. In the case of a bearish move I will not be looking for longs until we get down around 1313-1315 or the cvpoc at 1309-1311 area. 

End of day review 4-15-11 Friday :)

Today was an alright day as far as action is concerned. I had a loser in the morning after the strong buying came in. I was trying to catch a PB into support only to have the market shoot down and stop me out. I was a little afraid to get long at the retest of the level at 1309-1311 area so I was being cautious and waiting for a retest of the LOD. The market traded right up into the upper extreme of the recent value area and I didn’t really catch that in my morning analysis. Otherwise I would have been looking to get short around 1315.75 level test to be a responsive seller and take the market back into value around 1309-1311 area. I ended up catching a good long after the break down around 3 PM. First I tried a short on the retest of IBH and got jerky and ended up getting in a little early so I bailed for +2 ticks. Then the market retested the IBH level and sold down 2 points so that would have been a good trade. Then I wanted to get long after the market tested the 50% retrace area which was also the globex highs and a LVN on the day. So I just bought as close to the 50 % retrace level as I could and I ended up being a point early again but my stop of 6 ticks kept me alive by 3 ticks. I ended up taking 3 points and ended the day up but down $200 for the week. I am break even for the month so far.

   I have noticed a few things this week one is that I have a problem with trying to guess what the market is trying to do. And the other is I trade with fear. Fear of losing money and fear of missing out on something. And I think that the fear in my trading is what is making me try and guess what the market is trying to do. So I was considering trading on SIM for the week and see how this effects my trading decisions. Then I will have confirmation on whether or not my trading is driven by fear instead of logic.

Pre market analysis 4-15-11 Friday :)

News: Consumer price index @ 8:30AM, Empire state Mfg survey @ 8:30AM, Treasury international capital @ 9AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, Consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM

Trade plan: ES had some good buying come in off of the 50 % retrace level at 1299.00 area yesterday and then bounced up into the CVPOC at 1311 area. Globex formed value higher up on yesterdays value so the short term we are bullish with the bullish macro in place. There are a few news releases out today most importantly is the consumer confidence number at 9:55AM. I'm expecting buyers and sellers to be active at the support and resistance levels today. And im expecting a balanced session unless we get some initiative action on the release of the figures.

Pre Market analysis 3-17-11 Thursday

News: CPI Index @8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15 AM, Leading indicators @ 10AM, Philadelphia Fed survey @ 10AM

Daily Chart notes: The market has been sliding down pretty hard on the back of the Japan crisis. We are in a down trend and have hit strong support. I will watch for a bounce to set up.

30 Min chart Notes: We are in a down trend on the 30 min as well and putting in nice rotation in a falling wedge type pattern.

MP notes: It looks like we have a range setting up on the profile. Globex has been trending higher most of the session. We are mid range and could retest the 1282-1285 area today. We also have a P shape on the vol profile.

Trade plan: ES sold off yesterday down to strong support around 1240-1242 area and we bounced from there showing us that the responsive buyers were active. We traded back up into the day's range and closed around 1252 area. The sellers are still in control but we are wedging lower so i will keep an eye on a bounce forming. On the profile i can see ES trading back up into resistance at 1280-1285 area were there may be responsive sellers active. Over all the sellers are in control and i will look to take short opps around the resistance levels. I may look for long setups back up into the highs of the developing balance area.

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.