Pre market analysis 7-26-11 Tuesday

Been very busy with work and have been having a tough time trading as a result. Back to my routine with a few changes. I will see how it goes.

News: New home sales @ 10AM , Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) recently ES has pulled back from its big move up and balanced for a few days. We saw initiative buying break the balance area above the 1325s area. Thursday and Friday balanced in a range and Monday balanced in that area as well. Value shifted lower Monday and the sellers closed in control at lower value area and the vpoc at 1333.50. Globex initially moved lower testing the lows of Monday at 1326.75 and has bounced back above the 1333 area cvpoc. The buyers need to see this market above the 1333-1335 area to maintain short term control.

(Trade plan) I have 1333.1335 area as the short term line in the sand and buyers will want to see the market above this level to stay in control. A break below would bring the 25-27 area and globex lows into play. Any pushes below the 25-27 area will likely attract responsive buyers and I'm expecting this area to hold as support on first test. If the market holds above the 33-35 area I'm expecting test of the 1340-1342 area /globex highs and a possible break above to test the clvn area at 1344 and the 1347-1349 level where i expect responsive sellers to be active. Over all buyers are in control above the 33-35 area and i will focus on longs at support for test back up into 41-44-46.50. There are a few news releases out after the open and this could give a catalyst to move and test either area.

End of day review 6-28-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) The day opened right at the value high of the previous day. The context and structure was bullish going into the session. Buying came in and we traded higher throughout the day in a slow chopping manner with small rotations at my resistance levels. The market didn't offer any opps for me today so i had no trades.

(Trade plan) My plan was to be bullish today and i said if we break above the 1279s area it would confirm the buyers in control and i would look for higher prices which is what we got. I was to only wait for solid set ups and none came around so i didn't trade.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) see charts

(Actual) None

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was pretty boring and im sure there will be more of them days coming ahead due to summer trading. i was waiting for solid set ups because the market is in a tough spot here and is trying to work out which way it wants to go. My trade plan was in line with the market scenario today and it provided a great guideline to the day's action. My levels were good as well and i was happy with the reactions i got in my areas. The only opp i saw to get long this morning was the retest of the trend line that broke in globex session just before the market opened. It was also a rejection of the OS low that was the signal to get long with the responsive buying below the OSL.

BSO Points for the day: 0

Winners: 0

Losers: 0

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Emotions in check: A

Pre market analysis 6-27-11 Tuesday

no time to post this morning

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterdays action saw ES trade in a trending fashion back up. We retested the highs at 1279s of the past few days and found sellers there. Globex has traded back up to the 1279s area and that level capped the upside. We traded down to the VPOC area at 1272.50 of yesterday's session and the has shut of the selling for now. Value is established in the upper half of yesterdays value so this show the buyers still have control. The market is trying to find a direction to go in as we are stuck in a range that keeps getting tighter. Eventually the market will break out as balanced areas always lead to imbalanced moves. The question is which way will it break?

(Trade plan) Globex was capped by the 1279 area above and traded down to the 1272.50 VPOC of yesterday profile which has shut off the selling for now. We have consumer confidence out at 10AM and the market may balance heading into that release. The buyers are in control for now and i will use the 1269-1270.50 level as my line in the sand short term. If we start breaking below that it would show the sellers are stepping back in and may take control again. If we break above the 1279s and globex highs area it would tell me that the buyers are still in control and we will likely move higher. Over all like i said this area is tricky as the market works out what it wants to do. So i will mostly sit on my hands and will only take solid set ups.

End of day review 5-31-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened above value and sellers were active pushing ES back into Fridays value highs where buyers were active and pushed ES back up into the highs of the day for a full rotation. Price action today was painfully slow and choppy. It was certainly not a good trading environment at least for me. If anyone else saw any opps please let me know where i was wrong at. There was a good long at support at Friday highs and i was at lunch when this happened so no go for me.

(Trade plan) The news releases didn't give any real action today and the big gap up didn't give any good opps as no volatility came from the move higher. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active and they were but they took their sweet ass time doing it. My focus was on the long side today at my support areas and the 1333-1334.50 area was good for a long. I wasn't expecting the market to make it down to the globex lows at 1330, we bounced at the 1333 level. So over all my plan was in line with what took place in the market today.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) Good long opp at 1333.00-1334.50 area. And another good long to join the rotation back up at 1337 double bottom at support.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I had one short today at 50% retrace of move down. This was counter to the context. So i wasn't gonna hold it for long in the chop. i was looking for a quick reaction of at least a few points and then was looking to get long at the 50% retrace of the little move higher from the lows. The market only pulled back to the 38% retrace and honestly i couldn't stand the chopping so i went out side. the trade was a BE scratch.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the market unfolded the way i expected today and i personally didn't see anything worth trading other then the long at support and the PB at 1337. I feel like i did well following my plan and i didn't get to anxious while watching the market chop around. If i were at my computer at lunch time im sure i would have taken the long at 1333s.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: C should trade with the context

Pre market analysis 5-31-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Last week saw ES gap down and consolidate at the lows of the bigger balance area and the cvpoc at 1310 at the time. Buyers held their ground at cvpoc and tried to put a rally together for a move up. Buyers stepped in on Thursday and pushed ES up into the range, breaking the 3 day balance area we were in. On Friday value established higher above Thursday’s value and vpoc shifted up as well. Buyers are in control at the moment and need to see this market stay above the 1323.50-1325.00 area very short term. A break below that could bring in a quick move down to the 1319-1320 area. Over all im bullish above the cvpoc at 1313.00 and a move below that could bring in more liquidation on the higher time frames. On the daily chart this recent downward consolidation can be viewed as bullish because the daily and weekly have not given any real reason to be bearish yet. I would need to see a break and hold below the 1313 level to shift my midterm bias to bearish. Globex has trended higher all night. Im not quite sure what that about but the buyers are clearly still in control.

(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out after the open that could give some movement after they hit the market. With the big gap up this morning we could see some good opps today. I will be looking for responsive sellers up here as we are opening way above value and ES could try and close the gap. If no sellers are present then we could see ES try and make a move up. My focus will be on the long side into support areas on my 30 min chart. The market is currently trading at 1342 area around the globex highs. I will be looking for support to hold but will be cautious up at these levels as the risk is more on the long side. Below i have the 1336- 1337.50 level i expect buyers to be active there. A break below that will bring Fridays range into play and im expecting buyers there as well. Im not expecting the market to get below the globex lows area and if it does this will be a sign of weakness buy the bulls.

End of day review 4-26-11 Tuesday

The day gapped up above the previous 2 days balance and balanced in a range between my 2 levels. I can't remember why i didn't go long at support this morning but either way i didn't take the trade then ES took off to the upside breaking to new highs on the year. We didn't see a pullback until around 12 noon. So i waited for the PB to get to something strong and looked for a 1 min volume spike to get into the trade and that happened right at support so worked out well for 3 points. Over we spent the day establishing value above the recent balance area we have been in the past few weeks making new highs. Tomorrow i will be looking for longs to go with the move up but i need to see how globex trades over night.