Pre market analysis 7-26-11 Tuesday

Been very busy with work and have been having a tough time trading as a result. Back to my routine with a few changes. I will see how it goes.

News: New home sales @ 10AM , Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) recently ES has pulled back from its big move up and balanced for a few days. We saw initiative buying break the balance area above the 1325s area. Thursday and Friday balanced in a range and Monday balanced in that area as well. Value shifted lower Monday and the sellers closed in control at lower value area and the vpoc at 1333.50. Globex initially moved lower testing the lows of Monday at 1326.75 and has bounced back above the 1333 area cvpoc. The buyers need to see this market above the 1333-1335 area to maintain short term control.

(Trade plan) I have 1333.1335 area as the short term line in the sand and buyers will want to see the market above this level to stay in control. A break below would bring the 25-27 area and globex lows into play. Any pushes below the 25-27 area will likely attract responsive buyers and I'm expecting this area to hold as support on first test. If the market holds above the 33-35 area I'm expecting test of the 1340-1342 area /globex highs and a possible break above to test the clvn area at 1344 and the 1347-1349 level where i expect responsive sellers to be active. Over all buyers are in control above the 33-35 area and i will focus on longs at support for test back up into 41-44-46.50. There are a few news releases out after the open and this could give a catalyst to move and test either area.

End of day review 6-23-11 Thursday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) The market gapped down and sellers continued to sell but it was slow and choppy. Buyers took market back up almost filling the gap.

(Trade plan)

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Range trade

(Technical) We poked above the IBH on a balanced day. I saw some rejection so I decided to take a short. I was a little early and we popped up and I was stopped out for -2 points. The market did go my way right after the pop but I had to keep it tight because I didn’t know if it was going to reverse or not.

(Corrections) The market was in a trending move up and there was strong buying coming into that IBH area. I shouldn’t have been looking at shorts at that time. Better shorts were after we broke back inside the IB or the break of the trend line.

(Emotional) I fell as if I jumped into this trade. So I will consider this an impulse trade. I should have not got short in front of a strong up move. It was trending clear as day.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -2 points

2^st trade: Type of Set up: Range trade

(Technical) We broke back inside of the IBH and I tried to take a short back into the IBH. The market popped back above and into the resistance level just above the IBH and I was stopped to the tick and the market reversed back lower hitting my target

(Emotional) I think I was pissed about the first trade and I jumped back in to quickly.

(Corrections) I will have to say that this was a revenge/impulse trade. The IBH wasn’t a clean level to trade off of because of the way the market opened this morning.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -1.5 Points

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: What a day and week it has been. I am going through the same shit I went through a few months ago with my emotions and work. It seems as I get distracted with work I start to do bad in trading. And I’m realizing that trading is mostly a mental process that cannot be done while there are distractions that constantly pull you out of the zone so to speak. I need to realize that and adjust accordingly.

BSO Points for the day: -3.50 points

Winners: 0

Losers: 2

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: F

Following my rules: F

Emotions in check: F

Pre market analysis 6-23-11 Thursday

Been busy with work the past week so trying to keep up as much as possible. Has a few losing days but very small relative to past performance. I realize that work is screwing me up again so i have backed off a little bit as per my observations the last time i started doing bad when work interfered.

News: Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, New home sales @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday ES traded up into 1292-1294 resistance area which was the top of the balance area. After the Fed announcement the market sold off showing that the sellers were active at the top of the balance area. Value established higher but the sellers took control and closed the day on the lows and below the day's value. Globex has since traded lower showing that the sellers are still in control.

(Trade plan) We have new home sales out after the open and we could get some balancing before the release. Sellers have taken back control and im expecting resistance to hold. We are set to open below value so it could attract responsive buyers so i will be watching for that on the open swing. As long as we stay below the 1286 area i will be bearish. Above that and i expect a push above the recent highs.

End of day review 5-23-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) The day opened and we pretty much chopped around all morning. The market tested up into the 1322 chvn and the globex highs just before the figure released. We traded down breaking the IBL and started trading into the previous day's range and bounced off of the vpoc at 1315.50 back up into the IBH where sellers were active once again and they pushed down into the 1314.1316 level where the market went into chop mode for a few hours. We broke down a little bit testing the globex lows at 1312 where we bounced. This was a good area to look to get long. The bounce was weak but we were able to trade back up into the IBL were sellers were active once again pushing ES down below the day’s value area and closing below value. Vpoc stayed in the same area as yesterday and the sellers seem to still be in control of this market.

(Trade plan) As per my plan the market did balance in front of the econ release that was really not a surprise. Sellers were active on the push up into the 1322 level I have on my chart. I identified the 1310-1312 level as strong support and was looking to be a buyer there. The buyers were there and I wasn’t around lol. Maybe next time.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: I went short on a break but price wasn’t acting the right way for me to stay in the trade so I bailed. The market did follow through to my target but when its choppy I don’t like sitting in a trade.

2^nd trade: I went long but I was a little bit early. Perhaps I jumped the gun a little bit. I got out of one lot for +5 ticks and BE on the second. I had to go outside otherwise I would have held it longer because the 15.75 level was offering good protection for my stop. Market ended up hitting my target at 1318.25 (61.8% retrace level).

3^rd Trade: I got short at the IBL and the 61.8% retrace level. Price was acting right and I was at my level and we had already rejected that area a few times so I took it. I got out of 1 lot at first target of +2 points and the second I let run to +3.5 points. Nice trade.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: The day was really choppy once again so I stayed patient and was prepared to not make a trade at all if need be. I waited for the opps to come to me. There was a few opps in the morning but the figure was due out at 10AM and I didn’t want to enter a trade in front of a release. I stuck to my plan and I got paid for it. I think I have finally made the turn. I am starting to see trading in a different light now. I’m realizing that it’s just a matter of discipline and having a plan and following it but at the same time being flexible with it. The market can do whatever it wants but that doesn’t mean that you can’t be prepared to react no matter what the direction is that it wants to go.

   I need to see how I will react to a few bad trades. That will be the real test.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+

Following my rules: A+

Trade execution: C+