End of day review 4-14-11 Thursday

ES found support at the 50 % retrace of the initial move higher which was the 1299.00 level. I tried a short here after the level broke by a few points because of the momentum in the market at the time but I quickly scratched it for + 2 ticks as I saw the buyers coming in and I didn’t feel comfortable holding this trade any longer. I couldn’t find an entry to get long at that price so I passed it by being that my analysis was bearish and I was expecting more downside. Any way I tried a long at 1305 area on a pull back and ended up scratching that trade as well. After that I missed my short at my pre planned area at 1309-1311 level and it was good for 3 points. I need to stay at my computer more or at least monitor where the market is at better. Although the market was a little boring today and I needed to get lunch. The journaling of the market price action is helping me a lot with pre planning my trade Ideas so I will continue doing this. Tomorrow I’m expecting to see some more buyers come into the market. I will monitor the globex session and go from there.

Pre market analysis 4-14-11 Thursday

News: Producer price index @ 8:30 AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM

Trade plan: The [past few sessions saw ES balancing after an initial move lower. We have been building out value on the bigger composite profile POC area at 1311.00 area trading back and forth around it. I have noticed that this is common behavior around big VPOCs. Globex has built value above that 1305 level and has since broken down to 1299.50-1301 area building out value further and shift POC lower down. This tells me that people are interested in trading lower because value is building lower (acceptance at lower prices) and i will be looking for so follow through as the morning unfolds. I will be looking for short opps on pullbacks into resistance. I have the 1305-1306 area which is still in play as pre market resistance above that is the 1310.50-1312.00 pre market resistance and big CVPOC where i expect sellers to be active on first test. If we break above that then that would confirm buyers are back in control and i will be looking for higher prices. As for longs Im not really focused on the long side today as it would be a counter trend set up and i will have to feel it out when the time comes. Otherwise we could get small rotations at support areas below

End of day review 3-16-11 Wednesday

ES opened and chopped around for some time. We started chopping higher than some news about Japan and the nuclear issues over there came out and ES sold down 20points retesting yesterdays lows. We then put in a few bounces into resistance and proceeded to chop around a little longer. After testing resistance at lunch time we sold off hard again find new levels of support at around 1241s which was quickly rejected and snapped back up 20 points back into the range of yesterday. My levels worked well today I'm happy with them. I just missed some good opps due to work and lunch time. But that's ok i will catch them next time. Going to start keeping a list of "stuff to work on" and review every day and night to ingrain it into my subconscious mind. 2 trades today 1 for +2 points and 1 for -2 points so BE day for me.

Stuff i need to work on:

1.       Stop trying to guess what is going to happen. I find that i say something like "the picture was bullish yesterday so wecould trade back up into so and so area" Instead of reading my charts and taking a trade based on that.

Pre Market Analysis 3-16-11 Wednesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM

Daily chart notes: The market is still in a down trend and bounced off of the 50% retrace level from the beginning of the last move up on 12-1-10.

30 Min chart notes: The 30 min chart still is in a down trend and needs to be monitored for follow through in either direction.

Mp Notes: The profile has been building value lower down. Globex has stayed inside of yesterday value area giving me no real indication of a change in sentiment.

Trade plan: ES traded higher yesterday after being down 40 points before cash open. we managed to regain alot of ground lost. Its hard to say what i think could happen we are still in an down trend and that could be just a pullback in the down trend. Im going to wait for the market to open to get an idea of what to expect today. Only a few news release out today so not expecting much from them.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.