End of day review 6-24-11 Friday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Market opened up and completely took back all the gains from yesterday. This was possible going into the day because we opened above value and the b shape profile said the market was happy at the lower prices. The day turned into a trend type day and we kept putting in lower lowers throughout the day. Nothing has really changed this week as we are still inside the balance area on the chart (1253-1293).

(Trade plan) My trade plan going into the day was complete SHIT!!! It lacked focus and expectations. I need to outline levels where i can be bullish above or below and expectations if price goes one way or another. Not having the time in the morning has really hurt my routine and i can't get here any earlier than i am. I could start doing more at home after work but damn when will i ever have a life. I guess i have to make sacrifices for now if i want to get this shit going full time. I need to also have my developing trade plan going throughout the day as well. I have stopped doing it because of work and not having the time. I really need to keep doing that so i can keep developing my market feel and reads.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual) Not gonna waist my time going over these trades. They were so bad that I would just prefer to forget them lol. Any way I tried to get long when I saw a perfect short on the first trade. On the second trade I tried a long again and was stopped. We weren’t even at the bottom… The third trade I tried a long again after we bounced off the bottom and I got in front a little bit but we reversed and I was stopped again. Man what a bad day. Hopefully that will be the worst of them for a while.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: OK so this week was my worst week in months. I did really bad this week and I can only conclude that I didn’t follow my rules. I didn’t analyze correctly and I took trades that I usually don’t take. I have no answer for the reason why other than my work issues. I don’t want to blame work and I’m not because ultimately it is my decision to pull the trigger. So that means if work is interfering then I have to recognize that and adjust my mindset accordingly. Will do better next week.

BSO Points for the day: -8

Winners: 0

Losers: 3

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: F

Following my rules: F

Emotions in check: F

Pre market analysis 6-24-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Durable goods @ 8:30AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterdays new event around 2PM caused a lot of buying to come in and ES shot up to the 1279-1281 resistance area. Globex has traded higher initially hitting the 1285-1287 area of resistance but has since pulled back to the 1275 area MCLVN. There is a lot of news coming out of the EU so the market have been jumpy all globex session.

(Trade plan) Buyers have seemed to step back inside the market and we are still inside of the balance area of 1293-1253. With all the news coming out of the EU it's hard to have a bias going into the day. I will stay alert and wait for solid set ups if they occur. Im still expecting S/R to hold in certain areas. Over all i will wait to see how the market sets up before taking any trades.

End of day review 5-25-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Market opened below value and responsive buyers were active off the open. We pushed up into 1314-1316 resistance area and rotated down to the 1310-1312 area where it was the perfect entry for longs to trade back up into the balance area. Especially after the O.D. opening type. The market shot up into the previous day’s range with small pull backs. We consolidated for a while and then broke out testing the previous days highs. Sellers were active at the extremes and sold ES back down into the balance area. The day was still balanced and vpoc shifted up to 1318.75 with bulls in control on the day.

(Trade plan) So my trade plan called for a balanced market today and even though we somewhat trended higher we still balanced in the recent balance area. All we did is rotate to the other side today. This morning I stated that this was a good area for responsive buyers to be active and we could get a little relief/short covering rally back up into the range and that’s exactly what we got. I wish I could have traded it like I planned. Over all my planning is working well and it helps me to form expectations of different scenarios that im looking to play out. My only problem is im rushed in the morning to find my levels and solidify my plan. It’s the reason my trade plan is sometimes fragmented and doesn’t flow.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart

(Actual)

1^st trade: I tried a short at 1317.75 and was looking for a PB of 2 points or so. I knew it was a counter trend trade and I was ok with that. But looking back shorts was a bad idea because of the context. We were at the bottom of the balance area and we had an open drive open type. No reason to get short at all. But honestly I was pissed I missed my 2 long entries in the morning and was looking to trade. I have to remember that its not about placing trades but following a plan and being right with my ideas.

2^nd trade: I’m going to print this chart out and staple it to my forehead because it is the perfect example of a amateur trader lol. I bought the freaking high of the day… Enough said lol. Honestly I was bored and I saw the market moving and I jumped in thinking it was going to go up to 27.00 area. The risk was on the long side and I knew it. I need to cut that impulse shit out if I’m ever going to be a professional trader. That not professional behavior so no need for it.

3^rd Trade: Another impulse trade. Man im breaking rules left and right here today WTF Mike… Get it together buddy. Unless of course you like sitting under a stair well hiding all day listening to people take a shit 10 times a day and pretending you’re a professional trader than go ahead and keep buying the high of the day and keep on with them impulse trades let’s see how far you can get.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So today I did really bad. Not as bad as I have done before but bad enough relative to how I have been doing. I need to stay focused and disciplined. I need to follow my rules and remember that impulse trades will cause me to fail. I missed my 2 long entries, so what, it’s not like there isn’t going to be tomorrow to trade. I found that it was good for me to have this losing day as it helped me to refocus myself and not let my reality get to far away from me. I learn the most from my loser trades and last week I did really well so I didn’t want to lose touch with the fact that I can lose everything I have worked so hard for on any trade if I don’t control my emotions.

Grades:

Following my plans: F-

Following my rules: F-

Trade execution: F-

Pre market analysis 5-25-11 Wednesday

News: Durable goods @ 8:30AM,

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday closed below value with sellers in control but we are still in the same area as yesterday. Globex sold off last night finding support at 1302 area and has bounced from there. Globex has moved back up into the 1314 vpoc of yesterday. We have aq P shape on the overnight profile which is showing sort covering at the lows here. Es keeps drifting lower on the daily and I'm starting to wonder if the bulls area ever gonna step in and try to push back up.

(Trade plan) Without any substantial news releases today we could just balance in this area again today. The macro structure is bearish with globex value establishing lower on the previous day and its possible to see some follow through to the down side today. At the same time this is a good area for the bulls to start pushing back up for a little relief/short covering rally. So the risk is really on both sides of the market. If we start to take out the lows of the 2 day balance area and break the cvpoc at 1312.75 we could get a flush move down into next support areas. On the upside if we get above the 1318-1320 level that could open the door for a gap fill back up into 1327-1329 area where i expect sellers to be active. Over all im expecting balanced trade and will look for long and shorts at my levels unless the market tells me it wants higher of lower prices.

End of day review 3-24-11 Thursday

So today was another straight up day after the initial selling into support. It was the same day as yesterday. I tried a short after the open drive opening type and i was looking for the follow through but it never came so i ended up taking a scratch for break even. I missed the 1 good set up i saw today due to lunch and work on the second test. Tomorrows another day but i will only be around half a day. Going to Miami for the week end :)

Pre market analysis 3-24-11 Thursday

News: Durable goods @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been putting in a pretty good bounce and we could see higher prices above 1300 area

30 Min chart notes: ES is still in a uptrend type move from the lows established last week. We have a H&S pattern forming and this will be monitored for follow through.

MP notes: MP shows a big balance area from a few weeks ago and lower value established from last week. We have  been recently establishing value higher and above 1300 would likely see higher prices in ES as this would negate the recent balance areas scenario that i talked about yesterday. So being where we are today responsive sellers could step in or buyers could keep control and push ES to new highs.

Trade plan: ES bottomed last week and has been putting in a bounce that showed pretty good strength yesterday. I can see the 1300 area as the line in the sand for ES and above that could see higher prices below that sellers could regain control. Buyers are in control short term and sellers on the intermediate term. Above 1300 the buyers remain in control and will start to take full control of the market once again which could lead to new highs on the year. The market is in a tricky area right now and could go in either direction. There are no catalyst out after the open and it looks like ES is gonna open above value so we can see responsive sellers active.