Showing posts with label Business Inventories. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business Inventories. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

End of day review 6-14-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action)ES opened above value after gaping up in globex session. Buyers were active pushing up into resistance areas and grinding higher throughout the day with a few PBs along the way.
(Trade plan) The focus was on the long side at support. We opened right at support and buyers pushed up and broke the globex highs area. We pulled back into the 50% retrace and the support level also the globex highs and buyers were active pushing ES back making new highs. There were a few opps to get long with the buyers toady. My plan seemed to be in line with the general market behavior today.
Trades review: (Hypothetical)
(Actual)
1st trade: Type of Set up: Reversal resistance
(Technical)I was short at 81.25 and looking for the sellers to close the gap. This was counter to my analysis but the set up was clean it just didn't follow through to my expectations so i scratched for + 2 ticks.
(Emotional) I felt confident taking this trade. It wasn't ideal for my analysis because it was counter trend trade but the stars aligned so i took it.
(Execution Grade) A no heat and i was able to scratch without a loss
(BSO Points) +.50 points
Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I still had some interference with work today so wasn't pushing my trading as much as i would have liked. There was a few opps i missed but I'm OK with it. My morning plan was in line with the market and i felt good going into the day. Just need more time to concentrate on trading without the work issues. But time will tell if i am on the right track.
BSO Points for the day: +.50 points
Winners:0
Losers:0
Scratches:1
Grades for the day:
Following my plans: C I traded counter to my pre  market analysis
Following my rules: A No issues there.
Emotions in check: A I didn't feel like i was missing anything today.




Pre market analysis 6-14-11 Tuesday

News: Business inventories @ 10AM
Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday balanced in a range and placed value in the same area as Fridays trade. We had one interesting development happen though. ES sold off and tried to break the lows of the previous day balance area and the market quickly rejected that push down and responsive buyers were active below and pushed ES back into the balance area. We were left with a P shape profile which is indicative of short covering. Globex has traded higher in the overnight session showing that buyers are in control for now. Globex has a P shape profile again and value is establishing above the previous 2 day balance area.
(Trade plan) With buyers stepping into the market my focus will be on the long side at support areas. The market is due for some kind of a bounce and i see signs of support holding. We have business inventories out at 10AM and could see some reaction at that time. We also have a few econ release out before the open that could give some movement also.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

End of day review 4-13-11 Wednesday


Today i traded my plan for the most part but i still am struggling with the same issue i have been having over the past few sessions. And that is thinking i know what the market is trying to do and not letting the charts tell me. I need to trade what i see and not what i think. That issue kept me out of a few good trades today and i should have been up at least 6-8 points had i taken all the trades that were a part of my plan. Instead i only took one and it worked out well. The others would have all been good trades as well. The long at 1305.50 area i missed because i was at work. So tomorrow i continue writing in my hand written journal and coming up with trade ideas and trading what i see. It has been very helpful doing this and i can only see good things come from it.



Pre market analysis 4-13-11 Wednesday


News: Retail sales @ 8:30AM, Business Inventories @ 10AM, Beige book @ 2PM
Trade plan: Yesterday saw ES trade down to the 1304-1306 area CLVN and bounced there. It seems we have put in a short term bottom at that price. Globex has been trending  higher all night showing that the buyers are coming back into the market. At this point im looking to buy pull backs into support areas. I have support at 1314.25-1315.75 and i expect buyers to be active there if they are to stay in control. If we start to trade back into yesterdays range then the CVPOC will come back into play although im not looking to use that area as a level for longs. I will use the 1307.50-1309.00 level to get long from which is also globex lows. In case we break below them areas i expect the 1305.25-1306.50 level to hold as i believe buyers will be active there. For shorts i will be looking at the 1319.50-1321.00 area as this is the lower balance area of the recent range a break above that will confirm buyers in control and i will only be looking for small rotations at the resistance areas above unless we get really extended above recent value.


Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Pre Market Analysis 2-15-11 Tuesday


News: Retail sales @ 8:30 AM, Empire state Mfg Survey@ 8:30AM, Business Inventories @ 10:00AM
Daily chart notes: We are still moving higher on the daily making new highs again on the year. The big rising wedge is still in play and hasn't broken the trend line yet. Yesterdays vol was really light and we still made new highs so caution up here is needed.
MP Notes: Sunday and Monday were perfectly balanced sessions and globex is in value with the past two session leaving us with a neutral macro structure. Friday broke out of the balance area making new highs on the year so the bigger picture remains bullish with buyers in control. This picture can change pretty quickly tho so cation needs to be taken on the long side.
Trade Plan: ES had a balanced session yesterday as expected. We are consolidating above the previous balance area which is good for the bullish context. We have a rising wedge that may play out on the daily so i will be cautious on the long side as support areas might break on the way down to find more buyers. Im still looking for the first test of the previous balance area high and will look for long opps there. If we break the 1320-1322 level with momentum i will look for a small pullback to get short off of for a quick trade. If we get back below 1320 we could see lower prices down to around 1316-1314 then possible 1310-1308 this would be an extreme and i expect selling to shut off by then. I am only going to concentrate on the long side at the previous balance area highs around 1320-1322 area. If we break the highs i will wait for value to build before playing the long side above the yearly highs. To have a heads up of the first signs of weakness we need to break globex low and see how price trades at 1320-1322 area. A break below 1320-1322 is a red flag for buyers.