End of day review 7-1-11 Friday

Havent had time to do a morning post

Pre market analysis 7-1-11 Friday

News: consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM, ISM Mfg index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES Trade higher continuing the big move up from the balance area last week. We shot up and consolidated the rest of the day holding the gains from the morning. We closed a P shape day with buyers in control. Globex has traded inside of yesterday value showing that the bullish sentiment has held overnight. There are a few news release out after the open that could give some movement on the release.

(Trade plan) With the neutral to bullish macro this morning and the big move in the past few session ES could just balance for the day. There are a few news release out after the open and this could give the market a catalyst to move but im still expecting a mostly balanced session today. Also it the friday before a long week end. Buyers are still in control and i will focus on both the long and short side today depending on how the open sets up. Im still expecting buyers to be active at support but im also expecting the market to start to PB so will be cautious at support that is close to the top areas.

End of day review 7-1-11 Friday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action)Market opened and shot up on the release of the news out at 10AM. This sparked some short covering and drove the market up into the 1336 area. We had no PB into support just a parabolic move up.

(Trade plan) My plan called for a balanced session mostly and we got the opposite. We grinded higher with no PBs and really low volume. I was still looking for longs into support but as mentioned we didnt get any PBs to trade off of so i mostly sat out.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: counter trend trade at resistance.

(Technical) market was moving up fast and we seemed to be stalling at resistance. I knew this was counter trend but i also was looking for a reversal at some point today.

(Corrections) dont counter trend unless everything is perfect.

(Emotional) I knew inside it was a bad idea but i took it any way. I figured we were at resistance so i gave it a go.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -1.5

2^st trade: Type of Set up: retrace back into IBH

(Technical) Same old set up except that the market is in denial lol. It keeps wanting to go higher.

(Corrections) Traded this one good

(Emotional) was a little uneasy because of the uptrend in place but i kept it tight.

(Execution Grade) A

(BSO Points) BE

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was totally unexpected. I have never seen 4 trend up days in a row. This type of market action is rare and we should see some balancing soon. Any way i feel like im back on top again. I have a grasp on my emotions and i have been waiting for the good trades this week. I have only had 6 trades this week because that's all i have seen and i was away from my screen a lot. Im anxious to trade next week and keep my routine going.

BSO Points for the day: -1.5

Winners:0

Losers:1

Scratches:1

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: D

Following my rules: F need to trade with the trend

Emotions in check: A

End of day review 6-17-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Market opened above value this morning after the big move up in globex session. Responsive buyers stepped in and sold ES down to support area below on my chart. We ranged and built out a triangle pattern that broke down. There were reaction at the IBL and my levels on my chart and the buyers finally stepped in at1263.50 which was gap fill and the uptrend line on the higher time frame. Es bounced up and made a higher low which was a sign that there was more upside possibly to come. Sellers were active at the retest of the previous day’s lows and vwap. We sold down and broke the lows at 1263.50 but buyers were active below this area as we pushed down into my 1261.75-1263.25 level which was yesterdays vpoc and the daily PP. ES closed below the IBL but value was placed higher up compared to yesterday.

(Trade plan) Today was OPEX and we had a few reversal moves as expected. Even though the day was a selling day my focus was still on the long side and this was a good plan going into the day. There were a few good opps to get long at support and buyers were active at support as expected. As I stated in the morning plan I was also looking for short opps at resistance levels. There weren’t really any selling opps at my resistance areas but there were a few trend lines that could have been sold. Overall my plan was in line with the market expectations today and would have provided a good guide to the day’s action.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart and 15 min chart with black circles.

(Actual) No trades today.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was very busy with work once again today and didn’t have any time to really get comfortable with the market. So being it was a Friday and OPEX I didn’t really try and trade today. I didn’t place any trades today at all as a matter of fact. I think that with work getting busy it is the best thing I could do for now. I must keep balancing work and trading and I have to favor work unfortunately. Im break even for the week which is ok because I had a lot of work issues that caused me to miss trades that I lied and out lined in my morning trade plans during the week.

BSO Points for the day: 0

Winners: 0

Losers: 0

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A I didn’t have any time to trade today

Following my rules: A  I didn’t take any trades out of haste

Emotions in check: A  I let trading take a back seat while I was busy with work.

Pre market analysis 6-17-11 Friday :)

News: Consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM, leading indicators @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES spike up and down in a volatile session. It is OPEX week so the moves weren't a surprise. ES tried to make new highs from the lows of the balance area but sellers were to strong and we sold off down to retest the lower balance area where responsive buyers were active pushing ES back up into the days value area. Globex has now traded higher building acceptance up around 1273 area. So the control is in the buyers hands.

(Trade plan) Being that we are in a balance area and buyers are in control from the bottom for now my focus will be on the long side. Today is OPEX and we could have a volatile session again. We have a few news releases out after the open and we could get some movement from that so i will be waiting for them to hit the market. Over all i will be on my toes today and will focus on the long side at my support areas but will also look for selling opps at resistance.

End of day review 5-27-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened above the value of yesterday and buyers were active on the open. They pushed ES up a few points into the 1331-1333 resistance area and sellers pushed back down to 1327-1328.50 support and yesterdays highs where buyers were once again active. I was long here but got scared out of the trade and took a BE scratch. ES shot back up into the resistance level and we tried to break above the IBH but responsive sellers were active pushing ES back into the day's range where we chopped for the rest of the afternoon which was expected because of the extended weekend. As of writing this ES is at 1329.7 @ 2:15PM.

(Trade plan): So i said that because of the holiday weekend that we could just chop around after the news release and that's exactly what we did... Nothing. I was expecting support to be bought on any PBs and the buyers were active at the 1327-1328.50 level yesterday highs. I wanted to see more of a PB into the globex lows area but the reaction at the first level is a bullish sign that the buyers are in control. So over all my analysis was correct and my expectations played out accordingly.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: I was long at 1327.25 and i got scared out of it for some reason. Not quite sure why but i remember that it was all emotions that was driving that decision. I started looking for reasons to get out instead of reasons to stay in and the reason i decided to take the trade in the first place. 

2^nd trade: I took a short at 1332.75 because we were trading into resistance at 1331-1333 and 60 min trend line. Buyers gave it one last push and we had div on ticks and VB so i took it as i was expecting a balanced session anyway. I was shooting for 3 points to catch the rotation down but buyers were active at 50% retrace which is where i should have exited in the first place so i ended up taking 6 ticks on it.

3rd Trade: I sold the trend line in this choppy market for +2.5 points and got out at 61.8% retrace of the lows on the morning. It was a good straight forward trade and a nice way to end the week.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I did well today but so so for the week. I was able to tell we had a different type of trading market this week after that big gap down on Sunday night. We mostly chopped around in the beginning and had small limited moves mostly in this balance area. We broke out of the balance area and the market started moving a little bit more which was a relief. I was only down a 100 bucks for the week so not so bad. I'm realizing that once a trader gets comfortable with the technical aspects of trading that it's just a matter of overcoming ones emotional waves of highs and lows. When you're doing well you are filled with positive emotions and you get a little bit to confident and then bam you get knocked back a few steps. And when things are going bad you never feel like you will get back up on top. Its these waves of emotions that cause a trader that is still learning to have the swings in their PnL. Trading is about staying level headed and not letting the highs get out of touch with reality and not letting the lows keep you from having the motivation to get back up again.

Grades:

Following my plans: C

Following my rules: B

Trade execution: C

Pre market analysis 5-27-11 Friday :)

No post last night i just didnt have the time. Down day for me anyway. im going to have to start doing my analysis at night again because i just dont have the time ion the AM at work. I mean doesn't work start at 8AM ... So why does the boss think that because im here at 7AM that he can just get me to start doing shit before 8AM. Maybe i should do my pre market analysis at home in the AM. FML at work lol

News: Personal income @ 8:30AM , consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM, Pending home sales @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday action saw ES move higher off of the 1313 cvpoc area and breaking the highs of the previous day. This is bullish short term and im expecting higher prices to follow as the bulls are back in control of this market. Globex has placed value higher up on yesterday giving us a bullish macro structure. The 1330 level held on the up side and the 1324 level held on the down side.

(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out today that could provide some movement in the morning. Today is the Friday in front of a holiday weekend and we could just chop around after the initial reaction on the release. With the overall price action the past few sessions im expecting support to be bought and on any PBs. We have the 1323-1324.50 level which is also globex lows and i expect buyers to be there on first touch a break below that could bring in a fast move down to the 1318.1319 level were i still expect buyers to be active. Im bullish above the globex lows area at 1323 very short term and bearish below the 1313 area. Over all i will focus on the long side into support areas.

End of day review 5-13-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened in yesterday vpoc value area and we initially moved a little higher on the open and found sellers at the top of yesterdays range. ES moved lower and bounced off of the globex lows and my support level at 1343-1344. We bounced back up into the 1345.50-1346.50 level and rotated lower. Buyers were active at the 1339.50-1340.75 level and we got a strong bounce back above the globex lows and the 1343-1344 level. We had a small retrace and bounced again back into the 1345-1346 level and it was all downhill from there. We kept moving lower with small rotation at each level and then trend follow through. The selling picked up and we had exhaustion volume selling into the 1330.25-1331.50 level where we bounced and ranged for a bit.

(Trade plan) Although i was in the bullish camp this morning i was also expecting some down side action. I wasn't expecting this much but it didn't matter. I still had a plan for either way the market went. We did get the fast move down below the 1343 number. So trade plan looked good.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) 1st aggressive traders could have sold the move up into the yesterdays high range. 2nd there was a long at globex lows support at 9:55am but we had econ number release at same time. 3rd another long into the 1340.75 level at 10:10AM. 4th long at 10:30AM off of the FB of globex lows area. 5th If you were looking at the overnight action we had a 50% retrace at 1346.50 and i had level at the area as well for a PB in a down trend type move. 6th Selling the 1340.25 level after breaking in strong trade.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I was short at 1342.75 at 10:06 AM after the break below the globex low and level i had. Market hit my 2 point target but it didn't fill. I went to break even and was stopped for a flat trade. Good call because market steamed up.

2^nd trade: Was long at 1343.75 after the rush of buying and a retrace into the level i had there. I got out of one for 2 points and left the other for 1351 target to play the bullish macro structure. It ended up stopping me out for BE on second lot.

3rd Trade: I was long again at 1340.25 once again market hit my target but no fill so took a BE trade.

4th Trade: Wanted short at 13:25 pm at 1326.25. Boss called and had to leave computer. Nice trade tho...

Conclusion of the day/week and thoughts going forward: So i feel like today was one of my better days of trading. It sounds funny to say that because i wasn't up on the day at all. But i felt really good about my market read and my trade execution. The only problem with the 3 trades i took is i didn't get filled for my target of 2 points. On the trade i had extended target on i should have left it for 2-3 points. I was feeling a little ambitious there. I feel like im getting better at them two issues. I will keep doing the same routine i have been doing for the past few weeks. Next week i will concentrate on leaving my target at 2 points. The reason is that trading is a game of size not points. If i can consistently take 2 points on every trade i can increase my size. If i can get on a 4 lot in a short amount of time then them 2 points will add up quick. No reason to go for more than that. Ok till next week...

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A+

Pre market analysis 5-13-11 Friday :)

Blogger was down this morning so posting this late

News: Consumer price index @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) So yesterdays price action was bullish as we were close to the bottom of the recent balance area. We have been trading in a balance area and have been rotating up and down. We are likely to break out of this area sooner or later, it's just a matter of time. (Globex) In the overnight session we have put in a pretty big range of almost 10 points. We rotated down to the 1343 cvpoc level and bounced up into the 1351-1353 level and have since traded down from there. We have CPI and consumer sentiment out today and this could give us a reason to see some action.

(Trade plan) We are in a ranging type market on the higher time frame and the market is just rotating up and down within that area. Yesterday the market shot up but value was stilled formed in the bigger value area not making any real progress. I'm still in the bullish camp and will be looking to be a buyer at support and also a seller at resistance. Globex formed value higher up on yesterday so over night sentiment is bullish. We have 1343 balance area vpoc and if we remain above that we could see higher prices up into the extremes of the bigger range. If we take out the globex highs i have strong resistance at 1356-1358 area and expect sellers to be active there on first test. If we break below the 1343 area we could see another fast move lower down into support areas below. I expect selling to shut off by 1327 area if we get there but that will be an extreme. The past few Fridays have been pretty slow so I'm expecting a move in the morning and then the market to shut off later in the day.