End of day review 7-1-11 Friday

Havent had time to do a morning post

Pre market analysis 7-1-11 Friday

News: consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM, ISM Mfg index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES Trade higher continuing the big move up from the balance area last week. We shot up and consolidated the rest of the day holding the gains from the morning. We closed a P shape day with buyers in control. Globex has traded inside of yesterday value showing that the bullish sentiment has held overnight. There are a few news release out after the open that could give some movement on the release.

(Trade plan) With the neutral to bullish macro this morning and the big move in the past few session ES could just balance for the day. There are a few news release out after the open and this could give the market a catalyst to move but im still expecting a mostly balanced session today. Also it the friday before a long week end. Buyers are still in control and i will focus on both the long and short side today depending on how the open sets up. Im still expecting buyers to be active at support but im also expecting the market to start to PB so will be cautious at support that is close to the top areas.

End of day review 7-1-11 Friday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action)Market opened and shot up on the release of the news out at 10AM. This sparked some short covering and drove the market up into the 1336 area. We had no PB into support just a parabolic move up.

(Trade plan) My plan called for a balanced session mostly and we got the opposite. We grinded higher with no PBs and really low volume. I was still looking for longs into support but as mentioned we didnt get any PBs to trade off of so i mostly sat out.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: counter trend trade at resistance.

(Technical) market was moving up fast and we seemed to be stalling at resistance. I knew this was counter trend but i also was looking for a reversal at some point today.

(Corrections) dont counter trend unless everything is perfect.

(Emotional) I knew inside it was a bad idea but i took it any way. I figured we were at resistance so i gave it a go.

(Execution Grade) F

(BSO Points) -1.5

2^st trade: Type of Set up: retrace back into IBH

(Technical) Same old set up except that the market is in denial lol. It keeps wanting to go higher.

(Corrections) Traded this one good

(Emotional) was a little uneasy because of the uptrend in place but i kept it tight.

(Execution Grade) A

(BSO Points) BE

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was totally unexpected. I have never seen 4 trend up days in a row. This type of market action is rare and we should see some balancing soon. Any way i feel like im back on top again. I have a grasp on my emotions and i have been waiting for the good trades this week. I have only had 6 trades this week because that's all i have seen and i was away from my screen a lot. Im anxious to trade next week and keep my routine going.

BSO Points for the day: -1.5

Winners:0

Losers:1

Scratches:1

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: D

Following my rules: F need to trade with the trend

Emotions in check: A

End of day review 6-1-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Wow nice sell off today lol. I saw so many people trying to catch the bottom of this move I was starting to wonder if these people should call them self’s traders. Anyway. The market was trying to put together a rally and price action yesterday was very bullish. Today changes everything on a few different levels. If we can’t find buyers down here then the 1313 level becomes very important on a higher time frame. We could see a sustained move down and even a new down trend start to develop. Either way I am a day trader (I hate that label lol) and I will look at the shorter term trend and trade with it. But it is always good to know what’s going on around you. If you don’t it’s like flying a plane without a radar system. You will be able to see what’s going one right in front of you but will not know what’s happening just around the mountain. On to the price action. We had a bearish reaction to the ADP employment report which came in a lot worse than expected and caused the initial move lower in globex. We had a little bounce into the 1340-1341 level and the market consolidated in a range until the econ release at 10 AM. Both news releases were worse than expected and the market never looked back. I had nice reactions at all my levels today and they all broke except for the 1311-1313 level which is the cvpoc and where the selling shut off at the end of the day. Today was a perfect trend day down and it needed to be treated just like it was a trend down day. There was no reason to try for longs anywhere as at each level the market never gave any reason to get long. The easy trades were looking to sell the rallies into resistance. You were either on in the morning and held for the ride or you sat on your hands. The only good area to join the move was selling the IBL retest which was also the C period poc and the retest of the down trend line on the break back inside of it.

(Trade plan) On to my trade plan. I posted it before the ADP release at 8:30AM. Context was bullish before that and I was looking for support to hold. After seeing the reaction to the news release I changed my bias to bearish and was looking to sell into resistance somewhere.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart

(Actual) I had a few trades today i didn't write them down so im not gonna take the time to go back and figure them out. Over all i missed the pull back in the down trend to join the move lower so i mostly sat out for the day. i ended the day down 1 point and they are just scratch trades. I didn't take any full stop outs.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: It was a trend down day and i am happy with my trading for the day. I didn't get a jumpy and try to get on somewhere. I stayed calm and relaxed and if i didnt see a safe place to get on board i didn't do anything. Over all I'm a little pissed that i didn't get anything at all but like i said i followed my game plan and i wasn't down big because i did.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: C

Pre market analysis 6-1-11 Wednesday

News: ISM Mfg index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday ES gapped up and had a slow decline down to support. The context was bullish and buyers were expected at support areas. Buyers drove price back up to the opening prints and closed at the highs above value and shifting the vpoc up from friday. The upside was capped in globex at the 1347.75-1349 level and has traded lower down to the 1340-1341 level. Globex is placing value at the top portion of yesterday value area showing that buyers are still in control.

(Trade plan) With globex trading in the upper part of the Tuesday value area the context remains bullish and the trend is pointing up. We have 2 important news releases out after the open at 10 AM and we could just balance before they are released. The expectation is for support to hold today and my focus will be on the long side at support areas. Depending on the market's reaction to the news releases i will be looking for the globex lows and the 1340-1341 area to hold first. A break below that will bring the 1336-1337.50 area into play where im expecting to see buyers active as well. I remain bullish above the 1333 area. a break below that will turn me neutral short term but still bullish longer term above the 1313 area. Over all i will wait for the market to set up and look for the releases to hit the market before taking a trade unless something really nice sets up.

End of day review 5-2-11 Monday

Today I didn’t have any time to post my pre market analysis and I decided to do my end of day review when I got home. At work it is difficult for me to have that little bit of time I need to do post market review. The market closes at 4PM and I still have an hour of work left so I need to go outside and wrap my work day up as well. I will do a post on some changes I decided to make to my routine.

   ES opened above Friday’s value area and responsive sellers stepped in to test some areas in Friday upper range. We found buyers and rallied back up to 1367.25 making new highs again on the year and which was also a low volume area back in May of 2008. ES had put in its IBH by that time and we rejected the break above the IBH a few times which was a red flag for buyers. We traded back inside the IB by 6 ticks and retraced back up into the IBH which is a set up that I like taking. I didn’t take this because the price action was so slow and choppy that I decided to pass but I was fully aware of it unfolding. We traded back down to LOD at 1361.75 which was IBL as well and bounced off the 1359.50-1361.50 level I had on the chart. Plus at these levels I would expect some selling to come in eventually. This was a good area for exiting shorts from IBH and to look for longs but you would have had to keep it tight and possibly scratch if need be because the move down left a 15 min momentum candle stick and more down side was likely to come. The market traded lower closing the naked vpoc from Friday and trading into Fridays range. I tried a short at 1358.50 to sell against the LVN from Friday to ride with the momentum but the market just shut off and I was stopped out for -1.5 points. I should have waited for the better 50% retrace of the entire move lower. I tried shorting again at globex low at 1360.00 and was stopped again because the market was just grinding higher. So I gave it one more shot at 1360.50 38% retrace of move lower and this one worked. I did take some heat as the market went to the 50% retrace level and IBL retest but it finally worked out for me. The 50 % retrace and IBL level would have been much better to short against but the fear of missing the move kicked in and I had to try early. Logically I was trying to go with the momentum so I was looking for something to sell against but like I said the market did one of them slow grinds higher on me. My target was the lows of the day at 1356.50 for 4 points and target was achieved. So I had 2 stops totaling -3 points and 1 winner totaling +4 points. Good example of money management there.

     I’m really happy with the way I traded today. I had a plan and a bias to go long on pullbacks. And I had to change my hypothesis to look for shorts and I didn’t give up on the idea and look for longs at all after the market changed its face from being bullish to bearish. I came into the day bullish and the market showed me why I needed to change my bias. I didn’t take longs after the rejected highs of the IB and I became more interested in the short side as we moved lower.

     Then ES proceeded to trade lower down to the 1354-1355 area I had on my chart and this also provided a long trade set up. With the recent bullish action buyers are just waiting around for an opp to get in. But it was too late in the day for me to want to take anything so I passed on it.