End of day review 6-16-11 Thursday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Es opened in value and the buyers stepped in pushing Es up into the 62.50-64.50 resistance level. The econ number was released and Es sold off down to the low of yesterday and buyers were active pushing back up to make new highs on the day. We had a little bit of trending action and a retest of the highs of the day on a buying div into resistance at 1268s. The market ticked off then chopped for a bit then began to break lower. We had a nice retrace back to the VPOC at 1266 and it was all downhill from there. The market had a full rotation to test the lows of the IB and tested below the bigger balance area from the past few days. I had level at 1252.50-1254.00 and buyers were active there pushing ES back up into the days value almost 10 points before closing the session. The morning trading caused a P shape profile and it was likely that the buyers would return the market back into value at some point in the day.

(Trade plan) So as far as my trade plan is concerned I was looking for buyers to be active at the lows of the balance area and they were. The trick was timing the entry to join the move. I had good reaction at my support levels and longs were the right trades to make there. Honestly I was expecting a little more buying to come in earlier. But when the 1268 resistance area held and we ticked off from there it was a red flag that the buyers weren’t strong enough to take the market higher. The buyers ended up being active at the lower end of the range around the 1252s area where we got a bullish reversal off that level.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade

(Technical) The market rejected the lows of the balance area and buyers stepped in pretty quickly so i bought 1265 on a break of A period. My plan was to ride the momentum up. But the market hit a wall and stalled out which is when i should have gotten out of the trade. I have to remember that i took the trade for a reason momentum. When it started stalling i should have dumped it. Anyway the market pulled back and i was stopped out for - 6 ticks. It did continue on to my target after going 3 more ticks past my stop.

(Emotional) I think i have been getting a little over confident lately so in a way its good i was stopped out. I think i needed to be humbled a little bit.

(Execution Grade) D I chased a few ticks

(BSO Points) -1.5 points

2^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade.

(Technical) Market topped out at 1367 area resistance and i wasnt around for the short opp. So as the market was trading lower it broke the 1262.75 swing lower and i took a short. I was way early on this and i was anticipating the selloff. We only broke the level by 3 ticks and buyers were waiting on the other side to get long. I was stopped for - 1.75 points on that one.

(Emotional) I was way to eager to get short. There was defiantly fear of missing the trade and that's what made me jump the gun.

(Execution Grade) F I chased the trade and anticipated the break lower.

(BSO Points) -1.75 points

3^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade.

(Technical) The market was selling lower and got short in anticipation of the continued sell off. The market popped against me and luckily i had my stop on the other side of resistance so i stayed in. As soon as the market got back to my entry i bailed for a BE scratch. The market made it to my target but regardless it was a bad entry location on that one.

(Emotional) This was a total impulse trade. I came back to my seat and saw the market going lower and just sold into the move lower. A better entry would have been on the retrace back up into the 1259.25 VPOC If i was looking to sell. It would have been a fast clean 3 point trade. My entry was 1258.50 a point from where i should have gotten in.

(Execution Grade) F i chased it 4 ticks...

(BSO Points) BE

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: For some reason my emotions got the best of me today and it shows in my PnL. The first trade seemed ok because my plan was for the buyers to be active at balance area lows. But with the bad econ release out today maybe longs was a bad idea. Im not sure if i would have sold 1268 area i had outlined on my chart but i wasn't around for that test so it's hard to say. Work is really cramping my trading but i have to stay balanced with work and trading or i will never be able to trade full time. So i have to live with the fear of missing out on a trade and not let it bother me.

BSO Points for the day: - 3.25 points

Winners: 0

Losers: 2

Scratches: 1

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A     I had a bias in the morning and I traded it accordingly. The trade didn’t work and that’s ok.

Following my rules:  C    I stuck to my MM rules. But I chased a few trades

Emotions in check: D    I was chasing a few and jumped in early on al 3 today.

Pre market analysis 5-31-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Last week saw ES gap down and consolidate at the lows of the bigger balance area and the cvpoc at 1310 at the time. Buyers held their ground at cvpoc and tried to put a rally together for a move up. Buyers stepped in on Thursday and pushed ES up into the range, breaking the 3 day balance area we were in. On Friday value established higher above Thursday’s value and vpoc shifted up as well. Buyers are in control at the moment and need to see this market stay above the 1323.50-1325.00 area very short term. A break below that could bring in a quick move down to the 1319-1320 area. Over all im bullish above the cvpoc at 1313.00 and a move below that could bring in more liquidation on the higher time frames. On the daily chart this recent downward consolidation can be viewed as bullish because the daily and weekly have not given any real reason to be bearish yet. I would need to see a break and hold below the 1313 level to shift my midterm bias to bearish. Globex has trended higher all night. Im not quite sure what that about but the buyers are clearly still in control.

(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out after the open that could give some movement after they hit the market. With the big gap up this morning we could see some good opps today. I will be looking for responsive sellers up here as we are opening way above value and ES could try and close the gap. If no sellers are present then we could see ES try and make a move up. My focus will be on the long side into support areas on my 30 min chart. The market is currently trading at 1342 area around the globex highs. I will be looking for support to hold but will be cautious up at these levels as the risk is more on the long side. Below i have the 1336- 1337.50 level i expect buyers to be active there. A break below that will bring Fridays range into play and im expecting buyers there as well. Im not expecting the market to get below the globex lows area and if it does this will be a sign of weakness buy the bulls.

Pre Market Analysis 3-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP employment report @8:15AM, Beige book @ 2 PM

Daily chart notes: ES sold off hard yesterday showing that we may be starting a new down trend. We stopped right at the major uptrend line from the lows back in august.
We have strong support at 1293 area a break and hold below this would confirm a down trend. We also have 50 MA right below the 1293 area that could act as support. We may also just stay and chop in this bigger range area of 1293-1342. Bottom line is we are still in a strong uptrend.

MP Notes: ES traded almost to the top of the range and sold off hard in yesterday's trading. We had a big trend day down and globex is forming value below yesterdays lows giving us a bearish macro structure. It is a strong possibility that we continue to move lower but usually after such a big move we will consolidate.

Trade plan: For today i will be looking to sell any resistance levels as i believe that responsive sellers will be active on first touch of these areas. I will stay cautious on the long side and will not be looking to be a buyer so quickly. If we do continue to move lower i will be more inclined to be a buyer at support areas below yesterday's trading. In the event we move higher the first area i will be looking at is the globex highs to play the bearish macro structure. Be patient and relax :)

End of day review 2-2-11 Wednesday

   So Es played out as expected today trading in a range from 1304-1298. There were a few good opps to trade today but other than that it was pretty dead. We only traded just less than 1 million contracts which is very light. Any way i was glad to get 3.5 points today. With ES in this new area of the market and putting in value all day along with the bullish weekly IB  its a good sign for the market to move higher. I would like to see ES test the previous value area at 1298 during RTH so i can get long for a swing trade and hold it for a few days as we make new highs. I may keep an eye on it tonight to see if we get down there and maybe put on  a trade for a few lots and hold on. We shall see...

  1st Trade: I took this trade because the market was in range mode and i was expecting a balanced session. After ES topped out at resistance level at 1304.25 I started looking for a place to get short. I waited for order flow to signal a short and i used the book to lean on an order to position myself in the book. What i saw in the book was offers chasing the market down after the bounce off of resistance so that was the green light for me to get short. Also VB was diverging. (see chart)

2nd Trade: I got long for a scalp trade off a trend line. I used the book to get into this one and watched for bids to firm up as price approached the trend line. When i saw the bids stick i got long in front of one and i only took 1 tick of heat. It took some time for the market to follow through. Price hit my target several times but didn't fill so I just took 1.5 and called it a day.