End of day review 4-5-11 Wednesday

ES opened above value and i was expecting responsive sellers to be active. The sellers did come in and pushed ES back into the range and i missed my entry to get short which was a retrace back into the previous day's highs. It was a good location to get short to play out my hypothesis of the market being in a range and trading back down to the bottom of the range. Anyway ES balanced for the session which i had expected due to the BOE rate decision release tomorrow. I will wait till tomorrow to see how the market reacts to the news release. See trades chart for trade explanation. 

Pre market analysis 4-6-11 Wednesday

News: No notable news releases today.

Daily chart notes: The daily chart has been in a nice short term up trend and is showing signs of ending. We are at the top of the balance area and could see some selling up here.

Trade plan: Yesterday ES traded in a range that has been in for the past few sessions showing balance trade. I'm assuming it is due to the BOE rate decision out on Thursday. I'm sure the market will watching this decision closely. Yesterday ES found support at the 1324-1326 level and traded higher into the 1332-1334 level where we sold off back down to the bottom of the range. Globex has been putting value in lower down but has recently shot up breaking the top of the range and sitting above the 1332-1334 level. Buyers appear to be in control and we could get a break of the highs of the year today although I'm not expecting it. If ES opens above the 1332-1334 level we can expect responsive sellers to be active at the open and i will be watching for this. I have initial resistance at 1337-1338 level which is the high of the year and it's an area i expect responsive sellers to be active. If we open above the 1332-1334 level this will now be pre market support and it may hold if the buyers are really active. In the case we break below that level the next support is the globex lows and MCVPOC area at 1327.50. A break below this will bring the 1324-1326 level into play then the gap fill and level at 1320.75-1322.75. Over all the game plan is to look for responsive sellers at initial resistance unless we open with an OD opening type and responsive buyers at support. I prefer the initial support area for longs. Volume is thin up here and we could see a nice correction play out soon. If we break down fast i will not be so quick to get long at support. And the risk is on the long side at the top of this bigger range.

Pre Market analysis 3-9-11 Wednesday

New: No news out today

Daily chart notes: Market still in this balance area with acceptance at 1317 area.

Mp Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and globex stayed in that value area over night as expected. We formed a p pattern telling us the market wants to trade higher so i will monitor for follow through.

Trade plan: Es globex stayed between 1318 vpoc and 1325 Tuesday highs with acceptance at 1320.75 just below Tuesdays area of acceptance. I want to see ES stay above the big vpoc at 1318. If we break below that that could open the doors for a test of the 1310 area then 1303 area below that. Above that we have resistance at 1325-1327 area and strong resistance at 1334-1336 area where i expect buying to shut off. With no news out today I'm expecting a balanced session to play out and looking for selling opps at resistance areas and buying opps at support areas.

Pre Market analysis 3-7-11 Monday

News: Consumer credit @ 3PM

Daily chart notes: Daily chart has been in a range recently. I still need to be mindful of a continuation of the bigger up trend.

MP Notes: Fridays session moved lower initially and then moved back up into its value area high and closed there. Globex placed value slightly higher up giving us a balanced session going into today's trading. Most of the volume has taken place higher up on the range.

Trade plan: We are in the middle of the recent range and globex has been balanced. With the lack of news catalyst out today im expecting the market to balance. I will wait for the market to set up is IB before taking any trades. Because i like to see where the sellers and buyers are going to make a stand for the session. We have a big VPOC area below the market around 1315-1318 area as long as we can stay above this im looking at a test of the top of the balance area around 1332 and then 1343. Be patient and relax.

Pre Market Analysis 3-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, Factory Orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been moving up the past few days and is approaching the top of the range and down trend line.

MP Notes: Market has been forming value higher up in the past few sessions. We are getting to the top of the balance area and need to monitor for responsive sellers around there. We have a bullish macro structure with globex and need to be careful of follow through to the up side.

Trade plan: We had a balanced session in globex leading up to the release of the NFP number. Im not expecting much to happen until the release of the number so i will wait for that to hit the market and look at the reaction. I will be looking to be a responsive seller at the extreme area of 1334-1336 if we get a bearish report. In the case of a bullish report i will be more cautious about selling up here and will rather be a buyer above value after a break and retest. Over all I'm going to wait to see how the market reacts to the news and go from there.