End of day review 3-18-11 Friday

We had an OAOR opening type and ES just chopped for a little bit after that. We continued to rotate. Bias was to the up side today and i was looking for opps to buy. The day was a balanced day with a downside bias so it was hard to find areas to buy at. Over all we mostly just chopped around.

Over all emotionally a rough week . I'm still struggling with consistency. Im realizing that if im ever gonna going to be a consistently profitable trader i have to make some changes. If i don't then i have no one to blame as to why im not making any money trading. Some important things i realized this week is that i need to have a set of rules that applies to me and my trading. I had rules but i never really made them mine. So i have a copy of them and i keep them by me and read them all the time so i don't forget tem and i need to get to the point where i can recite them by heart . Till next week ...

Oh i took 2 trades today see trades chart for details.

Pre Market analysis 3-18-11 Friday

News: No news out today

Daily chart notes: The daily chart has been moving lower but the days are trading back and forth inside of each other showing the market can't make up its mind. The trend is down shorter term and i need to keep an eye on this PB to see how far we retrace.

30 Min chart notes: The shorter term trend appears to have changed we bounced off of support 2 days ago and consolidated pulled back and now are moving higher in globex. I will look to buy support and will be carful at resistance areas above but will still look for rotations at the resistance zones.

MP notes: Globex has been building a value area with all this volatility. the top of the recent range is the 1280-1285 area were i expect responsive sellers to be active. Globex has formed a p shape over night and i need to mindful of a possible break to the upside. The macro structure is bullish.

Trade plan: Yesterday ES balanced in a range building acceptance higher up. The selloff has been putting in over lapping value and not really making any progress on the down side. Each time we shoot lower it is quickly rejected back up into the range. We have broken the wedge also so im expecting a move higher. Globex shot up over night on some good news i assume out of Japan. We are coming into an area of strong resistance around 1280-1285 and i will monitor if this area will hold or not. I will be cautious on selling around here as i expect a move higher up. If the 1280-1284 area break it will open the doors for a move up into resistance zones above. I will be looking for buying opps into support and selling into resistance. 

End of day review 3-4-11 Friday

It was a rough week my PNL was up and down a few times. I was busy with work so missed a few good trades today. I managed to end the week down only 100 or so. I learned a few things this week and i want to do a few post about them. But i have to run right now the beach is waiting for me. I will update later.

Pre Market Analysis 3-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, Factory Orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been moving up the past few days and is approaching the top of the range and down trend line.

MP Notes: Market has been forming value higher up in the past few sessions. We are getting to the top of the balance area and need to monitor for responsive sellers around there. We have a bullish macro structure with globex and need to be careful of follow through to the up side.

Trade plan: We had a balanced session in globex leading up to the release of the NFP number. Im not expecting much to happen until the release of the number so i will wait for that to hit the market and look at the reaction. I will be looking to be a responsive seller at the extreme area of 1334-1336 if we get a bearish report. In the case of a bullish report i will be more cautious about selling up here and will rather be a buyer above value after a break and retest. Over all I'm going to wait to see how the market reacts to the news and go from there.

End of day review 2-25-11 Friday

So ES pretty much went straight up off the open. We had OTD opening type from the previous day’s high and the market shot up giving no real opps to join the move. We traded right into 1316 poc on the composite and shut off for a while. The expectation for the open was for ES to test lower then move higher. Im assuming that when the market opens above value I need to watch for responsive seller/buyers at the open to get an idea of who will take control of the open. I didn’t really see any good opps today and I only had 2 scratch trades.

   During the last 2 weeks I have been having a hard time with trading, mostly to do with my emotions. Some of it had to do with work but I don’t want to blame work for making me feel the way I did. I have a choice in the way I approach trading. I can either choose to let trading and my job make me feel bad when things aren’t going as planed which effects my results. Or I can choose to not let it affect me at all which is one of the most difficult things to do. But it will allow me to detach myself from being too emotionally invested in trading which I think is a very important trait for traders to have. Over all I didn’t do to bad this week im only down $175 bucks so not a big deal. I believe I have a better grasp on my emotional state and I learned a few good lessons this week. Lessons that I believe are far more important to trading then learning about the technical stuff. I’m going to enjoy the beautiful south Florida sunshine this weekend and hang out with my wife and furry kids. Till next week…

Pre Market Analysis 2-25-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @ 10:00AM

Daily Chart Notes: ES Traded down to 1292 area and was quickly rejected back above the 1297-1299 level which was also the 61.8% fib retrace level of the bigger move down from the highs. The recent action can still be viewed as a pullback in the bigger uptrend. I will now monitor the downtrend pullback to see if it will reverse and go lower and continue the move down or if we start to range and move back up to the highs.

MP Notes: The profile has been placing value lower all week and finally over lapped yesterday. Now Globex is forming value higher up on yesterday’s session giving us a macro structure. We tested the 1297 area and formed a p structure on the day indicating short covering on the lows.

Trade plan: With ES overlapping value yesterday and gobex forming value higher it looks as if the market may be turning and a short term bottom is in place. We still have a bearish IB on the weekly profile and it possible we test lower. I’m expecting support to hold, and looking for the market to make a move higher up. The only catalyst out after the open today is the consumer sentiment number and depending on the market’s reaction to it we could go either way. The first area I will look at for longs is globex low area which is a level on the composite as well. I will also be looking for short opps into resistance area on my 30 min chart. I will be a little more cautious on the short side and will only look to take good solid set ups. The market looks like it is gonna open above yesterdays value so the expected open is OAOR and sellers to step in and push the market into support. Be patient and wait for the market to show its hand before jumping on to anything. RELAX :)

End of day review 2-18-11 Friday

So the market traded as expected by balancing in a range for the session. At the open we grinded higher into the resistance zone at 1342-1344 where i took a short for 3 points. The situation hasn't changed this week we continue to grind higher and higher on low volume making it a very difficult area to trade. Caution really needs to be taken here and a lot of discipline will keep you out of harm's way. Kev always told me cash is a position and you have to know when NOT to trade. And that is the most difficult part of trading. I had a bad week this week and dug myself into a unnecessary hole if i would have just not traded when i was having them issue with work this week i would have been fine. I did some stupid things and i paid for it. I didn't have to trade especially with me knowing there was nothing to trade with ES being so dead. So next week hopefully ES will be tradable and i will be able to get back what i lost and end the month up. I learned an important lesson this week. In trading you have to except that you will not always be up and when your down you can't let it get to you, once you do it begins to deteriorate your confidence and it seems like you will never be ok again and the end of the world is right around the corner. But this is when you have to dig in and really fall back on your discipline and stick to MM rules. If i was to take one more loser i would have gone on SIM this week till i was able to be confident again. I will see how i do next week and i will be careful and only trade when im not upset about work issues and when the market has something to do. All in all im still pretty new at the game and i know i have a lot to learn. So the journey continues...

1St trade: See trades chart.

Pre Market Analysis 2-18-11 Friday

News: No News out today

Daily chart notes: Same old situation. Big daily wedge and ES grinding higher.

MP Notes: ES closed in the upper part of value yesterday on a P shape day. We had breaking value yesterday and we need to monitor for continued vertical development. Globex has formed value in the upper part of yesterdays range giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: As of yesterday ES is starting is starting to show signs of vertical development and we need to monitor for continuation of this. We broke out of the weeks range and consolidated at the highs and globex has consolidated in yesterdays upper value area giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure. The expectation for today is for Es to trade higher into resistance and look for sellers. We have 1340.50-1342.50 level above and we should see a test of this area giving us a rotation to play to the down side. Without any news out today i expect ES to balance in a range most of the day giving little opps to trade. Buyers are still in control and need ES to stay above 1336-1334.50 level to stay in control. If we break down below that we could see ES trade back down to 1325.75-1327.75 level and then 1322.25 which is the lower part of the range that has recently developed.

End of day review 2-11-11 Friday :)

No trades today

WE had an OAIR opening type this morning. ES went higher in a trend type day today. We opened above globex and didn't test any support and buyers moved in right away and the market never looked back. We didn't get any pullbacks into support until lunch time and i was out for lunch. The market pulled back into 1320-1322 level which was also 38% and 50% retrace area which is a good trade set up for going with a trend type day. So no trades for me today. But i am still up for the week (see PNL pic) The market has made new highs on the year and that was expected due to the bullish context. I stayed out of selling resistance at 1320-1322 because of the bullish context. That is a great example of how watching the context and not set ups will help a lot in trading. Before i would just wait for set ups and i would have sold that level without even thinking twice. But now that i have incorporated context into my trading it helped me to pick my trades more wisely and not get caught up in just looking for set ups. So i continue my journey next week and hopefully will not get side tracked to much with work. It is very difficult to try and trade while working at the same time. I constantly have to step away from my computer or i will not be able to complete my pre market analysis before market open. But hey i have to give when i have to because the truth of the matter is i get to spend a lot of time on the computer to learn how to trade while i am at work. And i get paid a nice 6 figure paycheck to do it lol :) Tonight I'm going to the beach for the week end and will clear my head and enjoy my wife and dogs. Till next week...

Pre Market analysis 2-11-11 Friday :)

News: Consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been pulling back the last few days as expected this week. The pullback has been light and every dip has been bought so need to keep bigger picture in mind. The trend is still up.

MP Notes: ES has been consolidating in the recent balance area of 1310-1322 this week. Yesterday's session saw ES trade down to 1310-1308 level of support and bounce from there. We have a neutral weekly IB and it seems to be playing out. Yesterday ES closed at the top of value on a p shaped profile indicating short covering at the bottom of the range at support which confirms the area and the neutral weekly IB. Globex session has placed value lower down on yesterdays value giving us a slightly bearish macro going into today's session. Over all we are still range bound and need to look at the extremes.

Trade plan: Today we have consumer sentiment out at 9:55AM. I will wait to see how the market reacts off of this report and go from there. In the case of a bearish reaction i will look at 1310-1308 level and look for responsive buyers there. If we take out that level i will be looking at 1304-1306 level where i expect selling to shut off and will be looking for longs back up into resistance areas above. In the case of a bullish reaction i want to be a buyer at support level 1310-1308 or above 1314.50-1316 level. If we break the highs i will wait for value to form above the highs and look for a retest to get long at. Over all we are balancing in a range and i will look to play the extremes. We have strong support at the 1310-1308 level and i expect buyers to still be active there.