End of day review 6-16-11 Thursday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Es opened in value and the buyers stepped in pushing Es up into the 62.50-64.50 resistance level. The econ number was released and Es sold off down to the low of yesterday and buyers were active pushing back up to make new highs on the day. We had a little bit of trending action and a retest of the highs of the day on a buying div into resistance at 1268s. The market ticked off then chopped for a bit then began to break lower. We had a nice retrace back to the VPOC at 1266 and it was all downhill from there. The market had a full rotation to test the lows of the IB and tested below the bigger balance area from the past few days. I had level at 1252.50-1254.00 and buyers were active there pushing ES back up into the days value almost 10 points before closing the session. The morning trading caused a P shape profile and it was likely that the buyers would return the market back into value at some point in the day.

(Trade plan) So as far as my trade plan is concerned I was looking for buyers to be active at the lows of the balance area and they were. The trick was timing the entry to join the move. I had good reaction at my support levels and longs were the right trades to make there. Honestly I was expecting a little more buying to come in earlier. But when the 1268 resistance area held and we ticked off from there it was a red flag that the buyers weren’t strong enough to take the market higher. The buyers ended up being active at the lower end of the range around the 1252s area where we got a bullish reversal off that level.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade

(Technical) The market rejected the lows of the balance area and buyers stepped in pretty quickly so i bought 1265 on a break of A period. My plan was to ride the momentum up. But the market hit a wall and stalled out which is when i should have gotten out of the trade. I have to remember that i took the trade for a reason momentum. When it started stalling i should have dumped it. Anyway the market pulled back and i was stopped out for - 6 ticks. It did continue on to my target after going 3 more ticks past my stop.

(Emotional) I think i have been getting a little over confident lately so in a way its good i was stopped out. I think i needed to be humbled a little bit.

(Execution Grade) D I chased a few ticks

(BSO Points) -1.5 points

2^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade.

(Technical) Market topped out at 1367 area resistance and i wasnt around for the short opp. So as the market was trading lower it broke the 1262.75 swing lower and i took a short. I was way early on this and i was anticipating the selloff. We only broke the level by 3 ticks and buyers were waiting on the other side to get long. I was stopped for - 1.75 points on that one.

(Emotional) I was way to eager to get short. There was defiantly fear of missing the trade and that's what made me jump the gun.

(Execution Grade) F I chased the trade and anticipated the break lower.

(BSO Points) -1.75 points

3^st trade: Type of Set up: Break trade.

(Technical) The market was selling lower and got short in anticipation of the continued sell off. The market popped against me and luckily i had my stop on the other side of resistance so i stayed in. As soon as the market got back to my entry i bailed for a BE scratch. The market made it to my target but regardless it was a bad entry location on that one.

(Emotional) This was a total impulse trade. I came back to my seat and saw the market going lower and just sold into the move lower. A better entry would have been on the retrace back up into the 1259.25 VPOC If i was looking to sell. It would have been a fast clean 3 point trade. My entry was 1258.50 a point from where i should have gotten in.

(Execution Grade) F i chased it 4 ticks...

(BSO Points) BE

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: For some reason my emotions got the best of me today and it shows in my PnL. The first trade seemed ok because my plan was for the buyers to be active at balance area lows. But with the bad econ release out today maybe longs was a bad idea. Im not sure if i would have sold 1268 area i had outlined on my chart but i wasn't around for that test so it's hard to say. Work is really cramping my trading but i have to stay balanced with work and trading or i will never be able to trade full time. So i have to live with the fear of missing out on a trade and not let it bother me.

BSO Points for the day: - 3.25 points

Winners: 0

Losers: 2

Scratches: 1

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A     I had a bias in the morning and I traded it accordingly. The trade didn’t work and that’s ok.

Following my rules:  C    I stuck to my MM rules. But I chased a few trades

Emotions in check: D    I was chasing a few and jumped in early on al 3 today.

Pre market analysis 6-16-11 Thursday

News: housing starts @ 8:30AM, jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Philly fed survey @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES sell off to the lower end of the balance area we have recently been in. We broke lower and consolidated at the bottom of the range. Responsive buyers were active below the range and we held this area throughout the rest of the session and into globex as well. Globex has placed value in the same area as the majority of the value was placed in yesterday's session. Buyers are active at the 1256 area for now. The weekly IB was bullish but i have turned to neutral due to the big sell off yesterday. The macro structure is bearish with globex value placed at the lower end of the previous day's session. We have news releases out at 8:30 AM that could give ES a move in either direction so i will wait fro them to hit the market and see the reaction before finalizing my analysis for the day.

(Trade plan) The plan is to wait for the econ release to hit the market at 8:30 and 10AM then go from there. We are at the lower end of the balance area we are in and the expectation is for responsive buyers to be active here. So i will be looking for support to hold and will look for longs back up into the range. In the case we break down below support levels on my chart i will be looking to join the selling and will look for the buyers at 1243-1245 area and possibly lower if the selling is strong.

End of day review 5-17-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action). Today was a down day and value was established lower and the vpoc shifted lower once again. The market opened below value attracting responsive buyers and we pushed up into yesterdays range a little bit. We had a little rotation down to the open price and buyers were still active pushing up into yesterday’s vpoc and my level at 1327.25-1328.75. The market stalled here for a few minutes and sold off breaking the IBL and testing the clvn at 1316.00 area. This area was rejected and buyer pushed back up into the day’s range where we had small rotations down as we trended higher in to the close.

(Trade plan) I kind of had to rush my morning trade plan because I was running late this morning. But basically I wanted to be a buyer at support and seller at my resistance areas. I was expecting more of a move today as we were at the lows of the balance area but the market just balanced in a decent range.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) The black circles are the hypothetical trades I could have taken.

(Actual) I had 2 trades today. See below.

1^st trade: I was short at 1328 even. I got this one perfectly. I was patient and waited for the right time to sell. And it paid off because the market followed through quickly. I couldn’t hold for more because I had to go back outside because of work. I would have left it to run if I had been a little more at ease and not felt rushed.

2^nd trade: I was long at 1324.75 after a big move up and a retrace. The trade quickly went in my favor but I moved my target up because I was expecting the market to rally into the close. But the buyers never followed through and I was stopped for BE. It was getting late in the session and I didn’t want to let the stop work because of a possible move against me late in the day. It would have been a quick clean 2 points and would have given me 4 points on the day.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the second trade got me thinking today. I really need to leave my targets alone. Because like I have said before I only need them 2 point trades to make it in trading. If I trade a 2 lot or a 20 lot I have to take the first 2 points to put some money in the bank. I can’t keep risking the 2 points that im up in hopes for more follow through. It’s not very good money management. I have to focus on consistency right now. As long as I can get in and get out with 2 points I will build consistency. And with consistency I will build my size up. Here is how I see it. I take a trade with 2 lots and I get filled for 2 points. That’s $200.00 bucks. If it keeps going oh well i made my target. On a 10 lot that 2 points is $1,000.00 bucks. It’s all about consistency and then size. Now I can choose to take 5 lots off for 2 points and let some ride to extended targets that would be $500 bucks in the bank and at least I can make something.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A

Pre market analysis 5-17-11 Tuesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower with vpoc established lower on the session compared to Fridays. Value shifted a little bit lower giving us a bearish tone to the market. We are still inside of the balance area but we are at the lower extremes of it. The market is sitting at an area where it is very vulnerable to a sell off. Globex established value lower down as well so we have bearish sentiment heading into the days trading.

(Trade plan) The plan today is to watch the open and let the day set up to gauge the control. If buyers step in down here we could see higher prices and in which case i will be looking for longs at my support levels. In the case of a bearish move I will not be looking for longs until we get down around 1313-1315 or the cvpoc at 1309-1311 area. 

End of day review 4-19-11 Tuesday

On a side note I'm gonna make the EOD post more about how the day met my expectation and the trades that i should have or i did take as opposed to what the day did. I keep a hand written journal now for my market reads and expectations for the day. I will keep doing the Pre market analysis as this sets up my morning so i am prepared for the open. So for me today was pretty boring. I'm trying to look back and see where i messed up and where i should or could have traded. I took a short this morning that hit my target of 2 points but i didn't fill so that sucked. See the 3 min trades chart for the rest of the trades. As for my expectation on the day compared to my morning analysis i came in neutral to bearish and was expecting sellers at the 1304-1306 area which we got so nice call there. then we rotated down to support where i was expecting buyers to be active due to the balanced day unfolding. We ended up testing the 1309 level at the close and this was a possibility as well.