Pre market analysis 7-12-11 Tuesday

News: international trade at 8:30AM, FOMC minutes at 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower and globex has followed through once again. The overnight session was volatile swinging up and down. The market is currently in a DT and trying to find a bottom. And we are floating around the 50% retrace level from the move up and could see some buying come in around here.

(Trade plan) ES has been in a DT with sellers in control yesterday and the globex session as well and the expectation is for resistance areas to hold. We have no news release out after the open except for FOMC minutes at 2 pm and we could likely see a balanced market heading up to the release. With the big up trend over the last week we could be seeing a PB now as we are at the 50% retrace level and buyers may begin to step in if this uptrend is to stay intact. The 1294 area could be the line in the sand for the buyers and they would want to see the market close above that area today. If we break back down into that area then we are likely to see lower prices and the new rally would be void for now. Over all my focus will be on the short side at resistance areas but i will be mind full of buyers getting active and will look for opps to buy good support after i see signs of the market gaining support.

End of day review 5-18-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened and tested the globex lows area on a bullish macro structure. That was the entry of the day to ride out to at least to the globex highs. Responsive buyers were active on that push lower and they took the market up above the previous day’s highs where I tried my long but ended up taking BE scratch. We found support at the previous day’s highs and the market took off breaking the IBH and consolidating above it for a little bit. The market ranged with the low of the range at globex highs which was another good area for longs after that we kept making a series of higher highs and higher lows so no need to fight the trend up. Value shifted higher with the vpoc shifting up throughout the day and placing higher above the past 3 sessions. The bulls are back in control and I expect PBs into support areas to be bought by responsive buyers. We are still in the bigger balance area of the past few weeks and the bigger picture is still bullish with the recent action being a consolidation in an up trending market.

(Trade plan) As for my trade plan review I was looking to be a buyer/seller at my levels. I was expecting a mostly balanced session and instead we got a trend day lol. That’s ok can’t win them all. I was looking for rotation above globex highs and was going to trade them as scalps and that would have worked a few times. The biggest expectation I had today and the biggest reason I’m a little upset is that I completely missed what I put in my morning trade plan and that was the bullish macro structure set up. The market tested the globex lows perfectly and shot up from there. That is a perfect example of the macro structure playing out. But the set up also has to be in context as well and today was a great day to trade that. I have to read my trade plan once again before trading after I sit down when the cash market opens. Work is my biggest issue right now. I have been tied up a lot the past week or so and I find myself not having the time to relax and concentrate on what I want to do for the day or what I expect to see happen for the day. Anyway I guess its better than trying to trade full time and not being consistent yet…

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with the black circles.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I tried a long this morning after the buying came in and broke above the previous day’s high. I was a little too early on this trade so I took a little heat but the trade ended up going for me and hit my 2 point target but didn’t fill. That really sucked ass. So I took the break even stop because it’s one of my rules to go to BE after 2 points in front. It has saved me more time than it has hurt me. Perhaps I will change that rule later on because I saw a clear reason to add to my long or at least keep my stop where it was at. The reason was the buyers were in control after testing the globex lows area on a VB div and pushing back above the open print. It was a good reason to stick with the trade.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: There was a few opps to join the trend day that developed today. I was mostly busy with work stuff so I didn’t have the time I needed to concentrate on the day. It was a little frustrating to see the market go higher without me but today is a great example of how I need to detach myself from what the market is doing. In other words I shouldn’t care one bit what the market does without me in it other than for analysis reasons. Also my entry on my one trade was a little early. It was clear as day to wait for a min or two longer and bought on the PB into the previous days highs.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: C

Pre market analysis 5-18-11 Wednesday

News: FOMC minutes @ 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES put value in lower yesterday testing  the lower balance area we have been in recently. It seems as if responsive buyers stepped in and we may be heading back into the range. We had a bullish U-turn candle stick which is a reversal candle at the lows of the range. On the higher time frame charts price is just floating around in the middle of a channel not really giving any clue as to where it wants to go. Globex has put in value higher up on yesterday's session giving us a bullish tone to the market before the cash open. We are currently trading back up into the bigger balance area at the moment. The bottom line is we are at the bottom of a balance area and could see higher prices today.

(Trade plan) The plan for today is to be a buyer / seller at my levels as im expecting a mostly balanced session. We have FOMC out at 2PM and im not expecting too much to happen before that is released. With the bullish macro structure we currently have in globex session we may see higher prices today. If we can manage to take out the globex highs i will be less inclined to get short at my levels above but i will still be on the lookout for rotations and will take these trades as scalps at best. I will be patient and wait for the market to set up in the AM open before i take any trades. I want to see who is in control off the open. I am still busy with work so i will try and trade as much as i can today but i will not trade if i am stressed out.

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.