Pre Market Analysis 2-17-11 Thursday

News: Consumer Price Index @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @8:30AM, Leading indicators @10AM, Philly fed survey @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: What can i say the picture is still the same. We grind higher on low volume. We are still in thi8s rising wedge pattern and the weeks range is only 12 points. How much worse can it get...

MP Chart Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and at the top of the weekly range. Globex is in a tight balanced area and inside yesterdays value area. giving us a neutral macro and no real bias going into today.

Trade plan: Today's trade plan is to wait for the market to move out of this area for the most part. I fell as if we are going to rotate back to the lows of the weekly range. Today should be the day for the wedge to play out which might give us the rotation back to the lows. So what i see in the context is that buyers are in control (what else is new) and need to stay above 1325-1327 to keep control. A break below 1330.50-1331.50 would be an early sign of weakness. And if we break and hold below 1325-1327 will be a heads up of the sellers possibly taking control. We have a few reports out today at 10AM so we could balance leading up to the release and i will decide what i want to do after seeing the market reaction. Over all im still a buyer of support and i will concentrate on the long side around 1321-1323 a break below that and i will look at 1314-1316

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.

End of day Review 1-28-11 Friday

Well as expected the market sold off in a hard way. I had the expectation of a complete rotation to test the lows of the week at 1278 area because of the neutral weekly IB (see Thursday 1-27-11 end of day review post) . We have been trading around the top of this range most of the week and we were building out value for a few session so i was expecting a break out but GDP wasn't that great and i think that's what the market was waiting for. Consumer sentiment came out a little better than expected and the market reacted well at first trying to make new highs and there was no initiative activity above the range highs so this was the golden ticket that the market was waiting for. Then the responsive sellers were more than willing to sell the crap out of it giving us a clean long liquidation type day closing at the low tick of the day.

1st Trade I took this trade on the back of the momentum that was entering the market. I wanted to sell higher up at 1294 area which was an area of small support that turned into resistance on the break but i was pulled away due to having a full time job. So when i got back to my seat i saw the market down another 6 points and break globex lows where i got short i had first target at 1286.75 for 3 points and second at 1283 for 6 points. But the market started bouncing and i had to go outside to check on something so bailed for 3 on the second one. Damn i wish i held it longer LOL. All kidding aside 1278 the 1275 were the real targets i had in the back of my mind and both were hit without a problem. As i get to increase my size i will be able to target take off a couple for 2 or 3 points and have extended targets for the rest. Because i know that one of the keys to trading is to maximize your profits. Remember the old saying "let your winners run and cut your losses short" well that is so true and it is crystal clear today.

2nd trade: I took this trade after ES made it low for the day. And i remember Kevin taught me that you don't want to go long after and big trend down until you se the market chop around for a while indicating a change in trend. That along with a few other things is what got me long for 2 points. My target was 4 points at 1278 which market hit my order but didn't fill so i locked in 2 and moved on.

End of day Review 1-27-11 Thursday

With ES trading at the top of the range which is the high of the year as well it made for really choppy session. The context is bullish and ES has been balancing since yesterday session and all day today. ES tried to break out a few times only to be meet with R. sellers. I had 1 trade today and scratched a few minutes to early (See trade 1). Over all ES is still bullish above 1290 area which is the bottom of this little range we are in. A beak of that would be a heads up of a possible move lower to test for more buyers or a possible trend change. We are still working with the balance area of 1296-1268 and have a neutral weekly IB and could see a full rotation tomorrow back down to the lows of the week at the 1278 area.

1St Trade: I took this trade because we are at the top of the balance area and was waiting to see responsive sellers above the range which we got when that figure release came out at 10AM. The market traded above then quickly rejected so i started looking for an entry for a short. I got into the trade and market started chopping and i ended up scratching for break even. In hind sight this was a bad idea because the market ended up going to my target of 3 points pretty quickly. Looking at the order flow on MD i realized that it still looked good and that would have given me the confidence to hold.

Pre Market Analysis 1-27-11 Thursday

News: Durable goods orders @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM and Pending home sales @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES Daily chart is been in an uptrend and has been balancing lately between 1268-1296 area. ES is currently at the top of the balance area with buyers still in control.

MP Notes: Yesterdays session was mostly neutral with neither the bulls or the bears taking control. We are trading at the top of the balance area with heavy acceptance at 1282 area also we have put in a P shape profile at the top indicating that the market still wants to trade higher. ES closed in the middle of value yesterday showing no real bias for any control. We are neutral on the macro with globex putting in value in the same area as yesterdays value. We also have a neutral weekly IB and we should be expecting support and resistance to hold up.

Trade plan: ES has been trending higher in this recent range and yesterday saw ES try a few times to break out of the highs of the balance area only to be meet with responsive buyers. It also looks as if this area is being accepted and i need to monitor for a possible break out. So the game plan for today is to look for shorting opps around the top of the balance area to trade back into value around globex and yesterdays lows at 1289 and 1288 then down to poc at 1282 area. If we break out above 1296 i want to be a seller above value at the resistance levels above on the 30 chart. On the long side i only will look to buy if ES pulls back to support areas around 1289-1288 and 1285-1287 area a break below that would be a red flag for buyers and a test of VPOC is likely but i may still look for long opps around there as well. It all depends on the price action and how we get there.  A break below 1282 VPOC and i would be really cautious on the long side till we establish some support. As of writing this ES globex is at 1295.50.

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

So today was a good day with ES opening and trying to go lower then bouncing up into the highs of the balance area. This is where i got short and traded back down into 50% retrace level which ended up being a good target (see trades chart). Then we had FOMC announcement at 2:15PM and the market was dead leading up to that. So i waited till after the release to put on another trade but couldn't find anything to trade other than selling the top and i dint want to sell their due to the bullish context.

1st Trade: Took a short at the resistance zone which is the top of the balance area 1295-1268. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active up there due to the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Responsive sellers did step in and push ES down into a retrace level where i exited for 3 points. Felt good with this trade and was confident holding it for second target. I was patient and waited for the market to tell me when to get short. Most heat i took was 2 ticks.