End of day review 2-25-11 Friday

So ES pretty much went straight up off the open. We had OTD opening type from the previous day’s high and the market shot up giving no real opps to join the move. We traded right into 1316 poc on the composite and shut off for a while. The expectation for the open was for ES to test lower then move higher. Im assuming that when the market opens above value I need to watch for responsive seller/buyers at the open to get an idea of who will take control of the open. I didn’t really see any good opps today and I only had 2 scratch trades.

   During the last 2 weeks I have been having a hard time with trading, mostly to do with my emotions. Some of it had to do with work but I don’t want to blame work for making me feel the way I did. I have a choice in the way I approach trading. I can either choose to let trading and my job make me feel bad when things aren’t going as planed which effects my results. Or I can choose to not let it affect me at all which is one of the most difficult things to do. But it will allow me to detach myself from being too emotionally invested in trading which I think is a very important trait for traders to have. Over all I didn’t do to bad this week im only down $175 bucks so not a big deal. I believe I have a better grasp on my emotional state and I learned a few good lessons this week. Lessons that I believe are far more important to trading then learning about the technical stuff. I’m going to enjoy the beautiful south Florida sunshine this weekend and hang out with my wife and furry kids. Till next week…

Pre Market Analysis 2-25-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @ 10:00AM

Daily Chart Notes: ES Traded down to 1292 area and was quickly rejected back above the 1297-1299 level which was also the 61.8% fib retrace level of the bigger move down from the highs. The recent action can still be viewed as a pullback in the bigger uptrend. I will now monitor the downtrend pullback to see if it will reverse and go lower and continue the move down or if we start to range and move back up to the highs.

MP Notes: The profile has been placing value lower all week and finally over lapped yesterday. Now Globex is forming value higher up on yesterday’s session giving us a macro structure. We tested the 1297 area and formed a p structure on the day indicating short covering on the lows.

Trade plan: With ES overlapping value yesterday and gobex forming value higher it looks as if the market may be turning and a short term bottom is in place. We still have a bearish IB on the weekly profile and it possible we test lower. I’m expecting support to hold, and looking for the market to make a move higher up. The only catalyst out after the open today is the consumer sentiment number and depending on the market’s reaction to it we could go either way. The first area I will look at for longs is globex low area which is a level on the composite as well. I will also be looking for short opps into resistance area on my 30 min chart. I will be a little more cautious on the short side and will only look to take good solid set ups. The market looks like it is gonna open above yesterdays value so the expected open is OAOR and sellers to step in and push the market into support. Be patient and wait for the market to show its hand before jumping on to anything. RELAX :)

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday

News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM

Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.

MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.

Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.