Pre Market analysis 3-18-11 Friday

News: No news out today

Daily chart notes: The daily chart has been moving lower but the days are trading back and forth inside of each other showing the market can't make up its mind. The trend is down shorter term and i need to keep an eye on this PB to see how far we retrace.

30 Min chart notes: The shorter term trend appears to have changed we bounced off of support 2 days ago and consolidated pulled back and now are moving higher in globex. I will look to buy support and will be carful at resistance areas above but will still look for rotations at the resistance zones.

MP notes: Globex has been building a value area with all this volatility. the top of the recent range is the 1280-1285 area were i expect responsive sellers to be active. Globex has formed a p shape over night and i need to mindful of a possible break to the upside. The macro structure is bullish.

Trade plan: Yesterday ES balanced in a range building acceptance higher up. The selloff has been putting in over lapping value and not really making any progress on the down side. Each time we shoot lower it is quickly rejected back up into the range. We have broken the wedge also so im expecting a move higher. Globex shot up over night on some good news i assume out of Japan. We are coming into an area of strong resistance around 1280-1285 and i will monitor if this area will hold or not. I will be cautious on selling around here as i expect a move higher up. If the 1280-1284 area break it will open the doors for a move up into resistance zones above. I will be looking for buying opps into support and selling into resistance. 

End of day review 3-4-11 Friday

It was a rough week my PNL was up and down a few times. I was busy with work so missed a few good trades today. I managed to end the week down only 100 or so. I learned a few things this week and i want to do a few post about them. But i have to run right now the beach is waiting for me. I will update later.

Pre Market Analysis 3-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, Factory Orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been moving up the past few days and is approaching the top of the range and down trend line.

MP Notes: Market has been forming value higher up in the past few sessions. We are getting to the top of the balance area and need to monitor for responsive sellers around there. We have a bullish macro structure with globex and need to be careful of follow through to the up side.

Trade plan: We had a balanced session in globex leading up to the release of the NFP number. Im not expecting much to happen until the release of the number so i will wait for that to hit the market and look at the reaction. I will be looking to be a responsive seller at the extreme area of 1334-1336 if we get a bearish report. In the case of a bullish report i will be more cautious about selling up here and will rather be a buyer above value after a break and retest. Over all I'm going to wait to see how the market reacts to the news and go from there.

Pre Market Analysis 3-3-11 Thursday

News: ECB announcement @ 7:45AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, ISM Non MFG Index @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been balancing in a recent balance area  1293-1336 an the expectation is for ES to continue to balance until we get a catalyst to move us out of this area. Es almost hit the bottom of the balance area and is now making its way back to the top area. We are mid range right now.

MP Notes: ES placed value higher up yesterday and globex is now trading higher placing value higher up as well. the expectation is for ES to continue its move higher up to the top of the range area.

Trade plan: With ES placing value higher up i have to expect ES to continue its move back to the other side of the bigger balance area (1336). We are pretty much neutral on the week in terms of a bias based on the weekly IB. So a rotation back up to the highs is not out of the question. I will be looking to buy support areas on my 30 min chart for moves up into resistance. As for the down side i will be a seller at resistance areas above but i will not initiate shorts to early. I will wait to see how the market reacts to the figures out before placing any trades in either direction.

Pre Market Analysis 3-1-11 Tuesday

News: Bank of Canada announcement @ 9:00 AM, ISM Mfg Index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: ES has been trading higher and building acceptance higher up as well. We are at a possible turning point here and could see ES trade back down to a support level or make it back up to the top of the recent range. We should still view the recent action as a pull back in an uptrend and need to be careful of continuation to the upside. We have broken the 61.8 % retrace from the move down and it looks like it wants to go higher.

MP Notes: Sunday Monday and last night globex has been putting value higher up. We have a P shape structure on yesterday's session and globex has been forming value higher up on yesterdays value giving us a bullish macro structure. So i will be looking for opps to get long.

Trade plan: With value forming higher i will be looking for opps to get long. I will wait for pull backs into support to join the buying back up into the top of the range. If we move back up to globex highs i will be looking for shorting opps. We have support at 1328.75-1330 and then 1326-1327 if we break those areas to the down side i will be looking at 1319-1320 as a strong area of support below that would be a red flag and i will become less aggressive on longs and will be a seller below 1315-1317 area. Over all i will be looking for rotation at my levels and im expecting a balanced session today. We have Obama's report card out on Friday (NFP) so im expecting the market to be somewhat quite this week leading up to that release. Be patient and relax :)

End of day review 2-25-11 Friday

So ES pretty much went straight up off the open. We had OTD opening type from the previous day’s high and the market shot up giving no real opps to join the move. We traded right into 1316 poc on the composite and shut off for a while. The expectation for the open was for ES to test lower then move higher. Im assuming that when the market opens above value I need to watch for responsive seller/buyers at the open to get an idea of who will take control of the open. I didn’t really see any good opps today and I only had 2 scratch trades.

   During the last 2 weeks I have been having a hard time with trading, mostly to do with my emotions. Some of it had to do with work but I don’t want to blame work for making me feel the way I did. I have a choice in the way I approach trading. I can either choose to let trading and my job make me feel bad when things aren’t going as planed which effects my results. Or I can choose to not let it affect me at all which is one of the most difficult things to do. But it will allow me to detach myself from being too emotionally invested in trading which I think is a very important trait for traders to have. Over all I didn’t do to bad this week im only down $175 bucks so not a big deal. I believe I have a better grasp on my emotional state and I learned a few good lessons this week. Lessons that I believe are far more important to trading then learning about the technical stuff. I’m going to enjoy the beautiful south Florida sunshine this weekend and hang out with my wife and furry kids. Till next week…

Pre Market Analysis 2-25-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @ 10:00AM

Daily Chart Notes: ES Traded down to 1292 area and was quickly rejected back above the 1297-1299 level which was also the 61.8% fib retrace level of the bigger move down from the highs. The recent action can still be viewed as a pullback in the bigger uptrend. I will now monitor the downtrend pullback to see if it will reverse and go lower and continue the move down or if we start to range and move back up to the highs.

MP Notes: The profile has been placing value lower all week and finally over lapped yesterday. Now Globex is forming value higher up on yesterday’s session giving us a macro structure. We tested the 1297 area and formed a p structure on the day indicating short covering on the lows.

Trade plan: With ES overlapping value yesterday and gobex forming value higher it looks as if the market may be turning and a short term bottom is in place. We still have a bearish IB on the weekly profile and it possible we test lower. I’m expecting support to hold, and looking for the market to make a move higher up. The only catalyst out after the open today is the consumer sentiment number and depending on the market’s reaction to it we could go either way. The first area I will look at for longs is globex low area which is a level on the composite as well. I will also be looking for short opps into resistance area on my 30 min chart. I will be a little more cautious on the short side and will only look to take good solid set ups. The market looks like it is gonna open above yesterdays value so the expected open is OAOR and sellers to step in and push the market into support. Be patient and wait for the market to show its hand before jumping on to anything. RELAX :)