Pre market analysis 8-3-11 Wednesday

Trying to get into my routine...

News: ADP employment report @ 8:30AM, factory orders @ 10AM, ISM non Mfg orders @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Trade plan) Globex stayed in a small range most of the night and popped back up above the 1252.25 previous swing low from the balance area. Es traded up to 1257 resistance and rotated back down to the 1252 area and is currently in that small range. Sellers are in control and the expectation is for them to be active on any push up into resistance. I have 57-59 area a break above that will bring the 65-67 (strong area) area into play a break above that would signal buyer strength and shift short term control back to the buyers. Then the 1270 nvpoc from yesterday. On the down side i have 1243 where globex lows stopped at and 1235-1237 area. We could see buyers active there except for a news release that is really bearish. Over all we are at some previous swing low areas and the sellers will either keep pushing down or the buyers will step in hard and move the market back up into value. I will look for shorts at resistance and possible longs at support after i see signs of sellers exhausting at support. This HS neckline break could be a fake out and i will need to see follow through today from the sellers in order to validate the pattern.

End of day review 6-3-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened below value on the NFP release and buyers were active pushing ES back up into the previous days range lows. Sellers were active and ES had a PB into support level 1299-1301 and the 50% retrace as well and we trended higher making new highs. ES hit the 1309 trend line from a few day and we sold down from there breaking the days uptrend line and breaking back below the IBH which was a red flag for buyers. ES rotated all the way back to the lows and closed at the low tick of the day which is bearish considering the current context we are in. The day was balanced and we closed at the lows of day’s value and below vpoc.

(Trade plan) My trade plan was waiting for the NFP release and going from there. So I was just going to plan the day from there.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: (Technical) I tried a short at my resistance area 1304.50-1306.00. I entered at 1305.25 looking for a short back down into the range (IB). Buyers were still active and pushed up to 1307.50 and i was stopped at 1307.00 for -2 points. Technically it looked good but i think i need to work on my timing a little bit. I obviously bought to early because the market ticked off that level after the buying dried up. Momentum was up on the 5 min chart as well so no need to look for shorts just yet. There was no sign of sellers yet. We also had a big VB div at the level. -2 points

(Emotional) At first i felt little bit like i was rushing into the trade. And i obviously did. I need to not fell like im going to miss something and let the market tell me when to pull the trigger. Currently the market reversed off that level and is at 1303.50 back below IBH...

(Grade) F Bad timing

2^st trade: (Technical) I went short on a break back under IBH and the 1303.50 level that formed. I was a bit early so i added 2 more on the retrace keeping the stop the same. So i was willing to risk a little bit more on the add. My risk was a around $300 but i was expecting a rotation lower. We got the initial move but there was bullish news from the ECB that caused a little bit of a move up. So i got out of 3 for +2 points and took BE on the forth. +2 points

(Emotional) I felt i was early once again and i was so need to work on that issue. It all a matter fear. Fear of missing something so i need to try and remove that from my trading.

(Grade) C +

3^st trade: (Technical) The market was in a uptrend and we hit the 1309 trend line and globex vpoc. The session was having a hard time trying to hold above the previous day’s lows. So when the uptrend line broke I took a retrace back into the TL. I’m only upset that I only took 3 points out of this move but it was still a nice trade. ES broke back below the IBH and a rotation to the lows was in the cards at that point. I almost got filled at 1302.25 for 4 points but it bounced a tick in front of my order. I had to go outside so I just took 3 and stuck to my plan.

(Emotional) I was a little hesitant on selling in front of the IBH but I felt good about a rotation lower so I took it.

(Grade) A Execution was perfect just needed to hold a few minutes longer but still good.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was a lot better than yesterday trade wise. I only had 3 trades and still made the same as I did yesterday. I ended the week up and it feels great. I think I just need to keep doing what I’m doing with my journaling and reviewing Etc...

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: B

Emotions in check: C Still dealing with fear of missing something and it forces trades

Pre market analysis 6-3-11 Friday :)

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, ISM non Mfg @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES balanced in yesterday session building a P shaped profile with most acceptance at 1312 area. Yesterday ES took a dive down after putting most of its value at the top of the mornings range. The move lower was to find the buyers and they came in around the 1305.50 area as expected. We bounced from there closing in value on the day. Globex has balanced over night but placed value on the lower part of yesterday value. This is slightly bearish but we are at the bottom of this move and a likely place for buyers to hold their ground and try and put together another rally attempt. Globex move up was capped by the 1312 level and yesterday VPOC and the down side shut off at 1305.50 once again. We have a small bounce right now (7:30AM EST) and i will monitor this throughout the morning and into the NFP number. Update.. The number is alot worse than expected and we traded below the 1305.50 down to 1298 area.

(Trade plan) With NFP out today i plan on waiting to see the market's reaction to the release at 8:30AM. In the case of a bearish reaction we could trade below the 1305.50 key level and in which case i will be looking to get short on any PBs into my resistance areas below. I would need to see the market trade below that level for a little bit to confirm the break. In the case of a bullish reaction i will be looking to be a buyer on any PBs into support as i am expecting buyers to be active down at these levels and above the 1305.50 area. Yesterday was a short covering day on the lows at key support so buyers are active around here.

End of day review 5-4-11 Wednesday

Price action review: Ok so today ES sold off a little bit but the day was still balanced. Value was established lower with vpoc shift from 1353.00 down to 1343. Sellers have taken control short term but I think this may be short lived. I’m still looking at this as a PB in a bigger uptrend. And will continue to do so as long as we don’t break below 50% area around 1329 area which is also the big vpoc from the recent balance area. Below that I’m bearish longer term. Otherwise I’m still bullish above on strong support areas.

   For today’s price action we opened below yesterday poc at 1353 and sellers were in control off the open. They pushed down below the open price several times. I had level at 1351-1353 and there was a few opps to sell there but I wasn’t at my computer to take advantage of the great sell opps there. In my morning plan I wanted to sell this area on first touch. ES pushed lower to my next level at 1345.50-1347.50 and with the momentum and the sellers in full control I didn’t want to buy this area so I waited for the break and retrace. The previous day’s lows gave a good level to short at with using a 6 tick stop. The market quickly followed through and we had all the making of a trend down day so I held for lower prices. Market bounced at my next level at 1342-1340 and then sold lower making new lows again. Then we bounced again at same level but made lower high. We had one more flush down breaking IBL and breaking the level finally. I had strong support at 1338 area and this is where the market shut the selling off and where I exited. Came back for a retest with tick and ADD and VB divergence at the 1338 lows and the market bounced back up into vwap and back above the 1342-1340 level and a quick retrace gave a long opp for a push back up into 1345-1347 area level and ON lows. We sold off 4 points to 50 % retrace of move from the lows and bounced back up closing on the day at 1342.50 right at vpoc on the day. The buyers are still active on these pushes down.

Trades review: I had 2 trades today 1^st one was perfect. The second trade I jumped the gun and went short to early. I have to work on my patients when looking to take a trade. I need to let the market show me that is going to make a turn or that the probabilities of it making are turn is increasing. Where I went short at 1345.25 was way too early. Better positioning would have been in the level and after the tick div happened and the rejection on the 5 minute sticks and the 15 min reversal stick lol. A lot of confirmation was there of when to get in. Instead I sold right in front of the area I was watching and had a 8 tick stop and the market went 9 ticks and then reversed. Still happy today and will continue to work on my entrys and timing.

Pre market analysis 5-4-11 Wednesday

News: After open is ISM Non-Mfg index @10AM

Price action analysis: This recent action is a pullback in a bigger down trend and im looking for buyers to step in soon. I don’t think the bottom is in today and I will not anticipate it being in. We had a decent bounce at good support yesterday but we can still see more downside into a fib retrace level. Globex balanced in a range last night and im still expecting a range bound day. Globex traded up into yesterday vpoc and back down to the lows of yesterday then broke above vpoc and stopped at HVN of yesterday at 1355.00 and has traded back into the vpoc of globex session at 1350.75 area. Depending on where we open ES could just range for the day at these prices building out more value in this recent little balance area. I'm expecting buyers and sellers to be active at s/r levels today and will adjust accordingly when price action unfolds. See scenarios below.

Bull scenario: I will be looking to be a buyer at support. The market is currently trading at 1350s and i  have initial support at 1345-1347 area and i will be looking for longs there on first test. A break below that could bring in more sellers. I will still be looking for longs below and will be looking at the 1340-1342 area for a bounce. Below that i will be looking at the previous balance area high at 1338 for responsive buyers to be active and will take longs there as well. Below 1338 i have strong support at 1334.50-1335.00 and expect selling to shut off by here but this would be an extreme.

Bear scenario: I will be looking for shorts at resistance areas with a balanced session. I have initial resistance at 1351.25-1352.75 and i expect sellers to be active there on first touch. A break above that will bring the ON highs area and 1355-1357s into play where i also expect sellers to be active. A break above that and i will be more cautious selling and more inclined to be a buyer on PBs as i will be expecting a retest of areas above..