News: After open is ISM Non-Mfg index @10AM
Price action analysis: This recent action is a pullback in a bigger down trend and im looking for buyers to step in soon. I don’t think the bottom is in today and I will not anticipate it being in. We had a decent bounce at good support yesterday but we can still see more downside into a fib retrace level. Globex balanced in a range last night and im still expecting a range bound day. Globex traded up into yesterday vpoc and back down to the lows of yesterday then broke above vpoc and stopped at HVN of yesterday at 1355.00 and has traded back into the vpoc of globex session at 1350.75 area. Depending on where we open ES could just range for the day at these prices building out more value in this recent little balance area. I'm expecting buyers and sellers to be active at s/r levels today and will adjust accordingly when price action unfolds. See scenarios below.
Bull scenario: I will be looking to be a buyer at support. The market is currently trading at 1350s and i have initial support at 1345-1347 area and i will be looking for longs there on first test. A break below that could bring in more sellers. I will still be looking for longs below and will be looking at the 1340-1342 area for a bounce. Below that i will be looking at the previous balance area high at 1338 for responsive buyers to be active and will take longs there as well. Below 1338 i have strong support at 1334.50-1335.00 and expect selling to shut off by here but this would be an extreme.
Bear scenario: I will be looking for shorts at resistance areas with a balanced session. I have initial resistance at 1351.25-1352.75 and i expect sellers to be active there on first touch. A break above that will bring the ON highs area and 1355-1357s into play where i also expect sellers to be active. A break above that and i will be more cautious selling and more inclined to be a buyer on PBs as i will be expecting a retest of areas above..
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