End of day review 6-3-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened below value on the NFP release and buyers were active pushing ES back up into the previous days range lows. Sellers were active and ES had a PB into support level 1299-1301 and the 50% retrace as well and we trended higher making new highs. ES hit the 1309 trend line from a few day and we sold down from there breaking the days uptrend line and breaking back below the IBH which was a red flag for buyers. ES rotated all the way back to the lows and closed at the low tick of the day which is bearish considering the current context we are in. The day was balanced and we closed at the lows of day’s value and below vpoc.

(Trade plan) My trade plan was waiting for the NFP release and going from there. So I was just going to plan the day from there.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: (Technical) I tried a short at my resistance area 1304.50-1306.00. I entered at 1305.25 looking for a short back down into the range (IB). Buyers were still active and pushed up to 1307.50 and i was stopped at 1307.00 for -2 points. Technically it looked good but i think i need to work on my timing a little bit. I obviously bought to early because the market ticked off that level after the buying dried up. Momentum was up on the 5 min chart as well so no need to look for shorts just yet. There was no sign of sellers yet. We also had a big VB div at the level. -2 points

(Emotional) At first i felt little bit like i was rushing into the trade. And i obviously did. I need to not fell like im going to miss something and let the market tell me when to pull the trigger. Currently the market reversed off that level and is at 1303.50 back below IBH...

(Grade) F Bad timing

2^st trade: (Technical) I went short on a break back under IBH and the 1303.50 level that formed. I was a bit early so i added 2 more on the retrace keeping the stop the same. So i was willing to risk a little bit more on the add. My risk was a around $300 but i was expecting a rotation lower. We got the initial move but there was bullish news from the ECB that caused a little bit of a move up. So i got out of 3 for +2 points and took BE on the forth. +2 points

(Emotional) I felt i was early once again and i was so need to work on that issue. It all a matter fear. Fear of missing something so i need to try and remove that from my trading.

(Grade) C +

3^st trade: (Technical) The market was in a uptrend and we hit the 1309 trend line and globex vpoc. The session was having a hard time trying to hold above the previous day’s lows. So when the uptrend line broke I took a retrace back into the TL. I’m only upset that I only took 3 points out of this move but it was still a nice trade. ES broke back below the IBH and a rotation to the lows was in the cards at that point. I almost got filled at 1302.25 for 4 points but it bounced a tick in front of my order. I had to go outside so I just took 3 and stuck to my plan.

(Emotional) I was a little hesitant on selling in front of the IBH but I felt good about a rotation lower so I took it.

(Grade) A Execution was perfect just needed to hold a few minutes longer but still good.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was a lot better than yesterday trade wise. I only had 3 trades and still made the same as I did yesterday. I ended the week up and it feels great. I think I just need to keep doing what I’m doing with my journaling and reviewing Etc...

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: B

Emotions in check: C Still dealing with fear of missing something and it forces trades

Pre market analysis 6-3-11 Friday :)

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, ISM non Mfg @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES balanced in yesterday session building a P shaped profile with most acceptance at 1312 area. Yesterday ES took a dive down after putting most of its value at the top of the mornings range. The move lower was to find the buyers and they came in around the 1305.50 area as expected. We bounced from there closing in value on the day. Globex has balanced over night but placed value on the lower part of yesterday value. This is slightly bearish but we are at the bottom of this move and a likely place for buyers to hold their ground and try and put together another rally attempt. Globex move up was capped by the 1312 level and yesterday VPOC and the down side shut off at 1305.50 once again. We have a small bounce right now (7:30AM EST) and i will monitor this throughout the morning and into the NFP number. Update.. The number is alot worse than expected and we traded below the 1305.50 down to 1298 area.

(Trade plan) With NFP out today i plan on waiting to see the market's reaction to the release at 8:30AM. In the case of a bearish reaction we could trade below the 1305.50 key level and in which case i will be looking to get short on any PBs into my resistance areas below. I would need to see the market trade below that level for a little bit to confirm the break. In the case of a bullish reaction i will be looking to be a buyer on any PBs into support as i am expecting buyers to be active down at these levels and above the 1305.50 area. Yesterday was a short covering day on the lows at key support so buyers are active around here.

End of day review 5-6-11 Friday :)

Price action review: So the NFP number came out and it was better than expected. The market reacted bullish on the release and we shot up to 1349.50 and pulled back. The market opened above Thursday value and responsive sellers were to be expected to bring ES back into value. We initially shot up and found some sellers and traded back into 1` tick in front of my support level at 1341-1343 area and bounced there back up into the middle of the range from the open. ES ranged for a little bit in a small area then broke out to the up side breaking the IBH and testing the 1351 level. This area was good for shorts as the market stopped and stalled there for a little bit. And we had a vol spike on the 1 min chart telling me that there were sellers into that move up into resistance. We also had a small divergence in VB indicator and also a 1000 tick reading. So it was a good risk to reward set up. If you wanted to wait for confirmation in price action then when we broke back into the IB it wa safe to get short on the little retrace back into the IBH for a rotation down. Es proceeded to trade lower for its rotation in balance and a retest of the lows of the day was in the cards which we got and then some. There was a nice short back into the break and retrace of IBL. ES sold off down to my 1338-1337.75 level were we bounced and on the retest of the level was a nice long opp for 3 point scalp. ES then sold off again and put in the low of the day at my 1330.50-1332.50 level. Aggressive traders cold have got long on the touch of this area because selling shut off at 1331.75 and the shift in vol came in right after and we had a delta div into the level. The market was pretty much done after this and the day ended with the bears in control and a vpoc shift down to 1336.50 same as yesterday’s vpoc

Trades review: I took 4 trades yesterday and I felt a little better today than I did on Thursday.                (1^st Trade)I tried getting long at the IBH break out but I had a bad read on price action and was looking at the market the wrong way. I should not have tried to get long with a big resistance area right in front but I figured we would get a little pop back up and I could have went to BE after it did. But it didn’t and I was stopped for -6 ticks. After we broke back below the IBH that was a red flag for me and I should have gotten out when I had the chance to for a BE scratch. Better to be flat then wishing I was flat. I should have tried to get short after the scratch but I had to go back out into the yard and missed the opp.

2^nd Trade: I got short after getting back to my office and seeing the market trade lower so I jumped in on the back of the quick move lower and took a little retrace at 1346.25 and targeted a few ticks in front of the lows of the day. Target hit.

3^rd trade: I got long at support area after market chopped for a little bit. I got stupid and moved stop up to close and was stopped out to the tick and the market went up 4 points to my target.lol.

4^th trade: I usually don’t do this type of trade but the market was selling off and we had bad news out of EU out so there was a high probability that we were going to sell off down to the next support level. So I got short for a quick 2 points.

Next week I’m going to write down how I felt before, during, and after the trade to try and see if there are any patterns I keep repeating. This way I can try and eliminate them. I will keep a log of the feeling and emotions I have before during and after each trade and I will structure the log in list form and put a date next to each issue that I find to see how often I have these emotions and which ones I have.

Pre market analysis 5-6-11 Friday :)

News: NFP @ 8:30AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Globex) The market had a pretty strong move lower but recovered a lot of the lost ground after bouncing hard off of the previous balance area vpoc at 1327-1328 area.  I have a level at 1331.50-1333.50 and if globex can stay above and then break the 1337-1338 level we can see higher prices over night. Next level above would be the 1342-1344 area where I expect buying to stop at in anticipation of the NFP number tomorrow. More than likely we will balance tonight ahead of the NFP figures.

(Cash) Globex balanced between 1331.50 and 1333.50 on the low side and 1337-1338 on the high side. And i mentioned that if we break above the 37-38 level we could see higher prices. We did break above 37-38 and traded up to 1341 and have since ticked off a few points. My expectations for today are kinda up in the air with NFP out at 8:30AM. Im expecting balanced trade up till the release and a sharp move in either direction depending on the outcome. Im the case of a bearish reaction we could see new lows this week so i will be cautious buying anywhere. And we are at the lows of the week. If we get a bullish reaction we could break higher. So I'm not gonna make any assumptions until after the news hits the tape.

End of day review 4-1-11 Friday

We didn't get much of a reaction on the NFP numbers. ES floated higher before the open then sold down to support and bounced from there. I was in a great trade just before lunch time and i ended up scratching it to go to lunch with an old friend. I didn't make anything on it but i consider it a good trade being that both of my targets were hit , it just took a while. Then at the end of the day i messed around and took 2 long trades as i was expecting support to hold which it didn't. The problem with them trades was that the market was selling off a little bit and i shouldn't have bothered with long at that particular location. then i got long again breaking my rule that after 2 stop out then done for the day. After I realized that the lows was a false break i bought 1326.00 and held for 3 points then when it retraced I bailed for 1 point lol. If i can't laugh at myself then WTF...

Any way i clearly have some mental issue that i need to work on with trading or i will never become a consistent trader.

1. The first bad trade i took i was like F it and took it so i guess that would be counted as an impulse trade which is a rule that i broke. So that's the reason for the loss. I guess what i was feeling was fear of missing something which is what caused the reaction to take the impulse trade.

2. On the second time i took the long trade i guess i was still feeling like i need to get into this before i miss it again. Instead what i should have done was nothing or waited for a better price. I should have planned it out a little better and i would have gotten a 2 or 3 point trade.

3. For the 3 rd trade i got in perfectly but i was looking for it to shoot to the moon. If i had stuck with my original plan i would have gotten my targets and been on my way. Instead i was greedy and ended up only taking 1 point when i was 3 point up. Otherwise i would have had my targets which was 2 points.

So i think i need to start another journal and i will use it specifically for my physiological thoughts.

I forgot to take screen shots before closing my charts down...