End of day Review 1-27-11 Thursday

With ES trading at the top of the range which is the high of the year as well it made for really choppy session. The context is bullish and ES has been balancing since yesterday session and all day today. ES tried to break out a few times only to be meet with R. sellers. I had 1 trade today and scratched a few minutes to early (See trade 1). Over all ES is still bullish above 1290 area which is the bottom of this little range we are in. A beak of that would be a heads up of a possible move lower to test for more buyers or a possible trend change. We are still working with the balance area of 1296-1268 and have a neutral weekly IB and could see a full rotation tomorrow back down to the lows of the week at the 1278 area.

1St Trade: I took this trade because we are at the top of the balance area and was waiting to see responsive sellers above the range which we got when that figure release came out at 10AM. The market traded above then quickly rejected so i started looking for an entry for a short. I got into the trade and market started chopping and i ended up scratching for break even. In hind sight this was a bad idea because the market ended up going to my target of 3 points pretty quickly. Looking at the order flow on MD i realized that it still looked good and that would have given me the confidence to hold.

Pre Market Analysis 1-27-11 Thursday

News: Durable goods orders @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM and Pending home sales @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES Daily chart is been in an uptrend and has been balancing lately between 1268-1296 area. ES is currently at the top of the balance area with buyers still in control.

MP Notes: Yesterdays session was mostly neutral with neither the bulls or the bears taking control. We are trading at the top of the balance area with heavy acceptance at 1282 area also we have put in a P shape profile at the top indicating that the market still wants to trade higher. ES closed in the middle of value yesterday showing no real bias for any control. We are neutral on the macro with globex putting in value in the same area as yesterdays value. We also have a neutral weekly IB and we should be expecting support and resistance to hold up.

Trade plan: ES has been trending higher in this recent range and yesterday saw ES try a few times to break out of the highs of the balance area only to be meet with responsive buyers. It also looks as if this area is being accepted and i need to monitor for a possible break out. So the game plan for today is to look for shorting opps around the top of the balance area to trade back into value around globex and yesterdays lows at 1289 and 1288 then down to poc at 1282 area. If we break out above 1296 i want to be a seller above value at the resistance levels above on the 30 chart. On the long side i only will look to buy if ES pulls back to support areas around 1289-1288 and 1285-1287 area a break below that would be a red flag for buyers and a test of VPOC is likely but i may still look for long opps around there as well. It all depends on the price action and how we get there.  A break below 1282 VPOC and i would be really cautious on the long side till we establish some support. As of writing this ES globex is at 1295.50.