Pre Market analysis 3-17-11 Thursday

News: CPI Index @8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15 AM, Leading indicators @ 10AM, Philadelphia Fed survey @ 10AM

Daily Chart notes: The market has been sliding down pretty hard on the back of the Japan crisis. We are in a down trend and have hit strong support. I will watch for a bounce to set up.

30 Min chart Notes: We are in a down trend on the 30 min as well and putting in nice rotation in a falling wedge type pattern.

MP notes: It looks like we have a range setting up on the profile. Globex has been trending higher most of the session. We are mid range and could retest the 1282-1285 area today. We also have a P shape on the vol profile.

Trade plan: ES sold off yesterday down to strong support around 1240-1242 area and we bounced from there showing us that the responsive buyers were active. We traded back up into the day's range and closed around 1252 area. The sellers are still in control but we are wedging lower so i will keep an eye on a bounce forming. On the profile i can see ES trading back up into resistance at 1280-1285 area were there may be responsive sellers active. Over all the sellers are in control and i will look to take short opps around the resistance levels. I may look for long setups back up into the highs of the developing balance area.

End of day review 3-3-11 Thursday

Es grinded higher all day with only on chance to get on at 1321.00 area. For some reason i scratched there maybe it was because i am a little scared to hold a trade after yesterday. but lesson learned. The next area is the top of the balance area around 1336.50 area. Tomorrow i will wait and see what happens with the NFP release and will more than likely be looking for responsive sellers at the top of the range.

 

End of day review 2-17-11 Thursday

ES opened and at first was below pre market resistance which gave me a bearish bias. Then we reversed and trended higher the rest of the day. Not crazy about trading in this area so will be very careful and will wait for something good to set up.

1st trade and only: This trade i took at resistance because i was expecting the market to reverse and rotate lower back to value instead ES decided to go higher and i was stopped for 8 ticks. This is ok for me because i had a plan today and i followed it. This was a case of ES just not rotating and the day turning into a trend type day.

Pre Market Analysis 2-17-11 Thursday

News: Consumer Price Index @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @8:30AM, Leading indicators @10AM, Philly fed survey @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: What can i say the picture is still the same. We grind higher on low volume. We are still in thi8s rising wedge pattern and the weeks range is only 12 points. How much worse can it get...

MP Chart Notes: ES closed in value yesterday and at the top of the weekly range. Globex is in a tight balanced area and inside yesterdays value area. giving us a neutral macro and no real bias going into today.

Trade plan: Today's trade plan is to wait for the market to move out of this area for the most part. I fell as if we are going to rotate back to the lows of the weekly range. Today should be the day for the wedge to play out which might give us the rotation back to the lows. So what i see in the context is that buyers are in control (what else is new) and need to stay above 1325-1327 to keep control. A break below 1330.50-1331.50 would be an early sign of weakness. And if we break and hold below 1325-1327 will be a heads up of the sellers possibly taking control. We have a few reports out today at 10AM so we could balance leading up to the release and i will decide what i want to do after seeing the market reaction. Over all im still a buyer of support and i will concentrate on the long side around 1321-1323 a break below that and i will look at 1314-1316

Pre Market Analysis 2-10-11 Thursday

News: Jobless claims 8:30 , Treasury budget 2PM

Daily chart notes: We are starting to see some selling in ES and this can be viewed as a pullback in the bigger up trend. How deep the pullback will go is anyone's guess.

MP Notes: ES has been putting in value at the highs and yesterday's session has closed at the top of value. Now globex is trading lower testing the 1310 area which is the weekly lows. We do have a neutral week ly IB and can expect ES to rotate back up to the highs. With globex value forming lower we have a bearish macro structure.

Trade plan: I am kinda rushing this today due to work. I didn't really have the time to do good analysis so I'm going to be cautious today and wait for the opps to come to me. With ES trading lower in the globex session we have a slight bearish bias going into the day. I still expect support to hold and will be looking for long opps into support. I'm expecting 1304-1306 area to be bought on the first test. In the case of any buying i will stay bearish below 1313-1315 level if we get above that i will be cautious at the highs but will be looking for selling opps above value back down into support. Be patient and wait for the day to set up the range then go from there.