Pre Market Analysis 2-10-11 Thursday

News: Jobless claims 8:30 , Treasury budget 2PM

Daily chart notes: We are starting to see some selling in ES and this can be viewed as a pullback in the bigger up trend. How deep the pullback will go is anyone's guess.

MP Notes: ES has been putting in value at the highs and yesterday's session has closed at the top of value. Now globex is trading lower testing the 1310 area which is the weekly lows. We do have a neutral week ly IB and can expect ES to rotate back up to the highs. With globex value forming lower we have a bearish macro structure.

Trade plan: I am kinda rushing this today due to work. I didn't really have the time to do good analysis so I'm going to be cautious today and wait for the opps to come to me. With ES trading lower in the globex session we have a slight bearish bias going into the day. I still expect support to hold and will be looking for long opps into support. I'm expecting 1304-1306 area to be bought on the first test. In the case of any buying i will stay bearish below 1313-1315 level if we get above that i will be cautious at the highs but will be looking for selling opps above value back down into support. Be patient and wait for the day to set up the range then go from there.

End of day Review 1-25-11 Tuesday

     So today the market confirmed the 1278 level as key support. Really dont like when the market trades around the CVPOC. So my levels played out pretty well today but for some reason i didnt make any good trades that resulted in being up on the day. I ended me day pretty much flat (see trades chart). I think its because we are not trading at an extrem and i found it difficult to have a bias on the day. Es opened today and tested the 78 support area offering a good long opp back into resistance above. It was ahead of the figure so i would have exited a little early but still a good trade. We traded back down 1282.50 then bounced from there back into resistance area at 1285.50-1287.00 which gave an opp to sell short but i didn't take it cause i wasn't sure. Then some momentum kicked in and ES sold off to test the 78 level below. I took a short on the break and retrace of globex level at 1281.75 . I jumped the gun a little on that one so need to be more patient but it was good for 1.5 points and i jumped out early as well. I tried to buy the bounce off of 1278 area and market traded at my price but i didn't fill so tough luck on that one. Then eS put in a nice bounce back above globex level and i took a long on the retrace back to it and got out for 1.5 then ES tanked and retested 1278 area once again where i got long and it looked good at first but stopped my for BE then took off. Perhaps i should have looked to get long again there. Over all todays action is bullish and i should expect a move higher tomorrow.

1st Trade: I took this trade on the back of the consumer confidence figure. It came out way better than expected and popped up then retraced back down where i tried to get long off of A session high. The market ended going a few ticks past my stop and i was taken out. In hind sight what i should have done was waited to see the buyers show there hand a little more and this would have given me a better trade location and could have scratched if i need to. Also could have stayed out of the way of the momentum push down. Over all should have waited and been more patient.

2nd Trade: I took a short off the break of the globex lows area on the back of that momentum that kicked in before lunch. The only problem i can point out is i got in a tad too early and sat through a few ticks of heat. I was short at 80.75 and should have waited for a bit more of a retrace up to globex lows. Also i exited for only 1 point because i saw a lot of buyers coming into the market. My original target was hit so i shouldn't have thought too much into it and waited for my target price.

3rd Trade: I missed this fill but wanted to high light it any way. I tried getting long at 79.50 and market traded down to my price but it didn't fill. Just a little unlucky there i guess. It ended up being a great trade.

4th Trade: Es traded down to 1278 key support (and i missed my long there) then bounced up during lunch hour. we broke back above globex lows which was a low volume area on the profile at the time. So i got long at globex lows and was looking for 2 points but the market shut off and started seeing sellers enter the market so i bailed on 1 lot for 1.5 points and left the other to run in case we went higher. Ended up getting stopped for BE on the second.

5th Trade: Market came back down to 78 support which is a key level for the ES. buyers stepped in at 1278 and i bought right in front of them i was up 2 points and went to break even cause i was expecting higher prices (1282ish) After topping out at 1280.50 ES whipped right around and stopped me out for BE... On to the next one. update this trade went on to hit my original target at 1282.25 for 4 points...

Trade plan and levels for Monday 1-24-11

News: No releases today

Daily chart notes: ES is still in an uptrend and the recent action can be viewed as a pullback in the uptrend. Es came down and tested the VPOC from the recent consolidation that was broken last week and put in a weak bounce. I will monitor for follow through to the upside.

MP Notes:  As of writing this Sundays session is at 1280.25 and putting in a b shape profile indicating people wanting to sell or long liquidation. We are still in the same area as Fridays value that built out over the session. We have support at 1273s and low of last week at 1268 which is also where the VPOC from the composite is at. On the profile we are sat in the middle of last week's range so not expecting much today

Trade plan: ES tested the POC last week and bouncing back above major support and off a trend line. Im expecting ES to trade higher if we can hold above 1274s. If ES breaks below globex low area at 1278 that would be a red flag for buyers and a possible test is likely of the 1274s area and the 1268s area. If 1268 fails then a test of the low volume area at 1258 which is the bottom of the recent balance area is likely. Over all being in the middle of the range last week and lack of catalyst out today im expecting a balanced session and will be looking to play at the extremes. We have a gap fill at 1276 and would be a good target if short from globex highs resistance zone.

  I will look to be a responsive seller at globex highs area around 1284s if we break above that i will look to be a responsive seller at the highs of the year around 1295s where i expect buying to shut off. On the down side i will look for long opps to go with the pull back at the 50% retrace level of the move from the lows if ES breaks globex lows at 1278s area it would be a red flag and leave the door open for a retest of the 1274s support and ultimately 1268 area. I will be cautious at the 1274s area and would rather look to be a buyer at 1258s. Overall i will wait for the open to set up and be patient.