News: FOMC meeting begins, S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9:00AM, Consumer confidence @ 10AM
Daily chart notes: Market has been forming a new range from 1268-1295 we are currently in the middle of that range and at the most excepted prices. Over all the market has been in an uptrend and no signs of changing as of yet. I want to see ES above 1268 and 1258 to keep longer term bullish bias going forward. We have broken out of a rising wedge and are retesting the back part of the bottom trend line so this could give a little bit of selling.
MP Notes: ES has been in the middle of the forming balance area. 1268-1295. Globex tried to move higher over night but has since sold down a little bit. Globex value is in the same area as yesterdays value indicating no real shift in sentiment from yesterday. ES did manage to close above established value and formed a P shape on the day showing signs of a continued move up is likely. ES has been filling in the low volume area on the 60 min chart that has the profile on it. ES is still around CVPOC at 1282
Trade plan: So we finally have a few figures out today (see above) We are in the middle of the developing balance area and at CVPOC which is an area of usually choppy price action. So with the catalyst out today hopefully we will be able to move out of this area. Im not to eager to get into any trades around this area. ES has tested the upper part of the value area last night at 1291.75 and was meet with responsive sellers pushing ES down to1282 as of writing this. A break and hold below 1277-1279 area could lead to a move lower to test 1273.50-1275.50 CLVN area. A move below that will be a red flag for buyers as a test of the lower end of the range at 1268 is likely in which case if we test the 1268 area i will look for long opps there as i expect selling to shut off around there. I will look to be a responsive buyer at the support areas below that are laid out on the 30 min chart because of the over ll context being bullish (daily uptrend). If ES manages to hold above 1277-1279 and the CVPOC at 1282 then the expectation is for ES to move higher. If ES moves higher i will look to be a responsive seller above value at the resistance levels on the 30 min chart around globex highs area. Over all in gonna be patient and see how the market reacts to the news release at 10AM EST
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