News: S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9AM, Consumer Confidence @10AM
Daily Chart notes: ES has been in a slow grind higher on really low volume. Recently we have seen ES break the daily wedge due to the political unrest in the Middle East.
MP Notes: WE sold off during Monday holiday trading and globex has seen ES trade down to the 1322 support level and this has held overnight giving ES a rotation back up. We have a bearish macro with globex value lower than Monday’s session. But given the holiday trade I need to wait for this to play out. Currently we are filling in the C pattern on the weekly profile and with only consumer confidence number released today we could trade around here for the session.
Trade plan: ES has been showing some signs of weakness the past 2 sessions. We have traded down to 1322 area of support and bounced there. The recent action can be viewed as a pullback in this big uptrend. The big picture buyers are still in control and they will not want to see this below 1319-1320 area. I expect the buyers to keep ES above this area and will look to play longs at support for a rotation back up into value high around 1342 area. If the selling continues on the back of a bad consumer confidence number or more Middle East unrest then a break of this support area is likely and I will look to be a seller on any retracements. I expect the 1310-1308 area to hold and the selling to shut off by then. Over all we are having some vertical development and could see ES trade lower today if the buyers can’t keep the market up. If they can then we could be working with the new developing balance are of 1319-1342 but this is yet to be seen.
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