End of day review 3-4-11 Friday

It was a rough week my PNL was up and down a few times. I was busy with work so missed a few good trades today. I managed to end the week down only 100 or so. I learned a few things this week and i want to do a few post about them. But i have to run right now the beach is waiting for me. I will update later.

Pre Market Analysis 3-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM, Factory Orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been moving up the past few days and is approaching the top of the range and down trend line.

MP Notes: Market has been forming value higher up in the past few sessions. We are getting to the top of the balance area and need to monitor for responsive sellers around there. We have a bullish macro structure with globex and need to be careful of follow through to the up side.

Trade plan: We had a balanced session in globex leading up to the release of the NFP number. Im not expecting much to happen until the release of the number so i will wait for that to hit the market and look at the reaction. I will be looking to be a responsive seller at the extreme area of 1334-1336 if we get a bearish report. In the case of a bullish report i will be more cautious about selling up here and will rather be a buyer above value after a break and retest. Over all I'm going to wait to see how the market reacts to the news and go from there.

End of day review 3-3-11 Thursday

Es grinded higher all day with only on chance to get on at 1321.00 area. For some reason i scratched there maybe it was because i am a little scared to hold a trade after yesterday. but lesson learned. The next area is the top of the balance area around 1336.50 area. Tomorrow i will wait and see what happens with the NFP release and will more than likely be looking for responsive sellers at the top of the range.

 

End of day Review 3-2-11 Tuesday

I will update this post later today.

Pre Market Analysis 3-3-11 Thursday

News: ECB announcement @ 7:45AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, ISM Non MFG Index @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been balancing in a recent balance area  1293-1336 an the expectation is for ES to continue to balance until we get a catalyst to move us out of this area. Es almost hit the bottom of the balance area and is now making its way back to the top area. We are mid range right now.

MP Notes: ES placed value higher up yesterday and globex is now trading higher placing value higher up as well. the expectation is for ES to continue its move higher up to the top of the range area.

Trade plan: With ES placing value higher up i have to expect ES to continue its move back to the other side of the bigger balance area (1336). We are pretty much neutral on the week in terms of a bias based on the weekly IB. So a rotation back up to the highs is not out of the question. I will be looking to buy support areas on my 30 min chart for moves up into resistance. As for the down side i will be a seller at resistance areas above but i will not initiate shorts to early. I will wait to see how the market reacts to the figures out before placing any trades in either direction.

Pre Market Analysis 3-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP employment report @8:15AM, Beige book @ 2 PM

Daily chart notes: ES sold off hard yesterday showing that we may be starting a new down trend. We stopped right at the major uptrend line from the lows back in august.
We have strong support at 1293 area a break and hold below this would confirm a down trend. We also have 50 MA right below the 1293 area that could act as support. We may also just stay and chop in this bigger range area of 1293-1342. Bottom line is we are still in a strong uptrend.

MP Notes: ES traded almost to the top of the range and sold off hard in yesterday's trading. We had a big trend day down and globex is forming value below yesterdays lows giving us a bearish macro structure. It is a strong possibility that we continue to move lower but usually after such a big move we will consolidate.

Trade plan: For today i will be looking to sell any resistance levels as i believe that responsive sellers will be active on first touch of these areas. I will stay cautious on the long side and will not be looking to be a buyer so quickly. If we do continue to move lower i will be more inclined to be a buyer at support areas below yesterday's trading. In the event we move higher the first area i will be looking at is the globex highs to play the bearish macro structure. Be patient and relax :)

End of day review 3-1-11 Tuesday

Pretty crazy day. It's nice to see ES moving again. Have to admit i started giving up hope. So today wiped out 2 days of gains, you gotta love a selling market. Any way ES was taking no prisoners today breaking a lot of key levels. Today was either your best friend or your worst enemy. Trend days will be like that. You will either kill it or cry on your way home from work. I have had both lol. Fortunately for me today i had a good day taking home 4 points. Not a lot for a 30 point range day but considering the work circumstance I'm happy and thankful. You can see my trades chart for details. I was a little suspicious of the big move up in globex this morning on no news so i was at first looking for PB to get long but after the market opened and headed south pretty quickly i started to change my bias to looking for selling opps. My first area i was looking for longs was globex lows being that we had a bullish macro structure. But with the econ figure out in a few minutes i waited to see the reaction of the market. After the release this area was pretty much trashed. Then the selling came in and i was looking for selling opps from then on. I was able to catch a quick retrace and join the move with only a few ticks of heat.