End of day review 2-2-11 Wednesday

   So Es played out as expected today trading in a range from 1304-1298. There were a few good opps to trade today but other than that it was pretty dead. We only traded just less than 1 million contracts which is very light. Any way i was glad to get 3.5 points today. With ES in this new area of the market and putting in value all day along with the bullish weekly IB  its a good sign for the market to move higher. I would like to see ES test the previous value area at 1298 during RTH so i can get long for a swing trade and hold it for a few days as we make new highs. I may keep an eye on it tonight to see if we get down there and maybe put on  a trade for a few lots and hold on. We shall see...

  1st Trade: I took this trade because the market was in range mode and i was expecting a balanced session. After ES topped out at resistance level at 1304.25 I started looking for a place to get short. I waited for order flow to signal a short and i used the book to lean on an order to position myself in the book. What i saw in the book was offers chasing the market down after the bounce off of resistance so that was the green light for me to get short. Also VB was diverging. (see chart)

2nd Trade: I got long for a scalp trade off a trend line. I used the book to get into this one and watched for bids to firm up as price approached the trend line. When i saw the bids stick i got long in front of one and i only took 1 tick of heat. It took some time for the market to follow through. Price hit my target several times but didn't fill so I just took 1.5 and called it a day.

Pre Market Analysis 2-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP Employment report @8:15AM, Challenger job cut report @ 7:30AM, MBA purchase applications@ 7:00AM, Nothing substantial after the open.

Daily chart notes: ES has broken out of the recent balance area of 1296-1267.50 and closed near the highs of the day making new highs on the year.

MP notes: ES had a big up day yesterday breaking the value established over the last few weeks. ES managed to close above the recent value area and within the value established on the day. With globex session trading in the same value area of yesterday. That gives us a bullish to neutral macro structure. We also have a bullish weekly IB so I'm expecting support to hold and looking for a move higher to search for more sellers. We could get another 16 point move to the upside which is half the weekly IB range.

Trade Plan:  Im expecting ES to balance for the day with no meaningful catalyst out today. We have a breaking of value type scenario with 1298 as the top of the previous value area. So i will be looking for a retest of this area for longs and also for a swing trade. For the swing trade i need to see ES build value here for 1 day then look for the retest to get long and hold for a few days. On the short side if ES forms a range i will look to sell the top and buy the bottom.

No post today, feeling sick.

Started to not feel to well over the weekend so decided not to trade today cause my mind isn't clear. So no post today hopefully will feel better tomorrow and back to my routine. Being sick today makes me realize a few things when it comes to trading. You have to be Physically, mentally, and spiritually fit to trade. Waking up every day and sitting behind a computer all day long will tear your body and mind to shreds. So i have decided that im gonna put my self on a health plan. Nothing drastic, something easy with small obtainable goals to help me reach my bigger goal. Just some lite cardio a few times a week a long with meditating at least 30 minutes a day to help shut the chatter off in my mind (and i have a lot lol). Im generally in good shape not over weight and i eat good and i try to stay active as much as possible. I haven't been sleeping to well over the last week because of getting up so early to be at work to have all my analysis done before 8:00AM.  So i will make sure i get plenty of sleep this week. I feel these are necessary things that a trader must do in order to really have control over you mind. And to help with the learning process.

End of day Review 1-28-11 Friday

Well as expected the market sold off in a hard way. I had the expectation of a complete rotation to test the lows of the week at 1278 area because of the neutral weekly IB (see Thursday 1-27-11 end of day review post) . We have been trading around the top of this range most of the week and we were building out value for a few session so i was expecting a break out but GDP wasn't that great and i think that's what the market was waiting for. Consumer sentiment came out a little better than expected and the market reacted well at first trying to make new highs and there was no initiative activity above the range highs so this was the golden ticket that the market was waiting for. Then the responsive sellers were more than willing to sell the crap out of it giving us a clean long liquidation type day closing at the low tick of the day.

1st Trade I took this trade on the back of the momentum that was entering the market. I wanted to sell higher up at 1294 area which was an area of small support that turned into resistance on the break but i was pulled away due to having a full time job. So when i got back to my seat i saw the market down another 6 points and break globex lows where i got short i had first target at 1286.75 for 3 points and second at 1283 for 6 points. But the market started bouncing and i had to go outside to check on something so bailed for 3 on the second one. Damn i wish i held it longer LOL. All kidding aside 1278 the 1275 were the real targets i had in the back of my mind and both were hit without a problem. As i get to increase my size i will be able to target take off a couple for 2 or 3 points and have extended targets for the rest. Because i know that one of the keys to trading is to maximize your profits. Remember the old saying "let your winners run and cut your losses short" well that is so true and it is crystal clear today.

2nd trade: I took this trade after ES made it low for the day. And i remember Kevin taught me that you don't want to go long after and big trend down until you se the market chop around for a while indicating a change in trend. That along with a few other things is what got me long for 2 points. My target was 4 points at 1278 which market hit my order but didn't fill so i locked in 2 and moved on.

Pre Market Analysis 1-28-11 Friday :-)

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Employment cost index @ 8:30AM, And Consumer confidence @ 9:55 AM Daily chart notes: Pretty much the same as all this week. Been trading at the top of the balance area and started hanging around there for a few sessions.

MP Notes: Same as all this week really. We have been building out value at the top of the range and like i said yesterday the longer we spend up here the stronger the case gets for the bulls.

Trade plan: With GDP out today at 8:30AM and Consumer confidence at 9:55AM we need to let these figures hit the market and see how the market reacts to them. A bullish reaction and ES could trade above the recent range and the uptrend will continue in which case i will wait for a retest of the recent balance area to look for longs. We have to wait for the market to establish a little value above a level before looking to join the move. General rule of thumb is if it is a daily level give it one day, 60 min level 60 minutes, 30 or 15 minute level give it 30 or 15 minutes to establish some value. This is something Kev taught me and it keeps me out of a lot of false breaks. If the market keeps steaming forward then i will look to be a responsive seller above value around the resistance areas at 1299 - 1300 and 1303-1305 area. If ES rejects the break out i will look to be a seller back in the range. I will let the market confirm the rejection by waiting for it to trade back into the range then look to catch a pullback to go with the move lower. In the back of my mind i will keep the weekly neutral IB  and expect a retest of the lows of the week. Patience is key... 

Sunrise and Friday

Im really glad i live so close to the beach. I have l lived close to the beach my entire life and never really appreciated it as much as i do know that im a little bit older. Often i get up before dawn and will go sit at the beach to clear my head of all the little chatter thats going on inside and watch the sunrise and just give thanks for being alive and being able to enjoy all the things we always take for granted. Concentrating so hard on a challenge will often get you off course and you will start to tip the balance of life in the wrong direction. this is important for you to realize and do what is necessary to regain your internal balance and put priority on the things that really matter in life.

 

End of day Review 1-27-11 Thursday

With ES trading at the top of the range which is the high of the year as well it made for really choppy session. The context is bullish and ES has been balancing since yesterday session and all day today. ES tried to break out a few times only to be meet with R. sellers. I had 1 trade today and scratched a few minutes to early (See trade 1). Over all ES is still bullish above 1290 area which is the bottom of this little range we are in. A beak of that would be a heads up of a possible move lower to test for more buyers or a possible trend change. We are still working with the balance area of 1296-1268 and have a neutral weekly IB and could see a full rotation tomorrow back down to the lows of the week at the 1278 area.

1St Trade: I took this trade because we are at the top of the balance area and was waiting to see responsive sellers above the range which we got when that figure release came out at 10AM. The market traded above then quickly rejected so i started looking for an entry for a short. I got into the trade and market started chopping and i ended up scratching for break even. In hind sight this was a bad idea because the market ended up going to my target of 3 points pretty quickly. Looking at the order flow on MD i realized that it still looked good and that would have given me the confidence to hold.