End of day review 2-9-11 Wednesday

We had an OAIR open type. And ES has moved up to resistance where i missed my short due to work. We moved lower with some momentum and sold down to 1313-1315 support. I wanted a long here but was waiting for the market to retest the lows which it did at lunch time so i missed this one because i went to lunch. ES continued to chop lower not offering any real opps to get long after trading back up to 61.8% retrace and then going back down to 1313-1315 level. We kept pushing lower in chopping trade showing the lack of conviction on either side. I didn't want anything long on the second move lower to retest the 1313-1315 level and glad i didn't because of the shitty trading action going on there. Im going to close up early because im done trading and i have to get home to my sick wife. So the charts will be missing the end of day trade from about 3:30 PM EST on.

No trades for me today...

Pre Market Analysis 2-9-11 Wednesday

News: No notable news release out today

Daily chart notes: ES is still moving higher making new highs on the year yesterday. With ES extended so far up I will begin to fell less confident on the long side as im expecting a pullback to start to develop. The trend is still up but i will be more cautious on buying the pullbacks into support. We are also breaking the rising wedge pattern on the 200 minute chart so need to keep that in my mind for development.

MP Notes: ES has been building value higher up but the last few sessions have been going sideways. We have a neutral weekly IB so expecting the extremes to hold. ES closed at the top of value on yesterday's session and globex session has put value in the same area as yesterday's session giving us a neutral macro structure.

Trade plan: Im expecting a balanced session once again without any catalyst out today. ES has been going sideways the past few sessions and we have a neutral weekly IB along with a neutral macro structure. With ES extended so far up i will become less confident of support holding because we could see a pullback in the daily uptrend that could see ES trade down to stronger support. The 200 minute chart rising wedge has broken in the globex session and this needs to be monitored for follow through. The daily chart is still in an uptrend so any selling could be viewed as a pullback in an uptrend and will more than likely be bought. So if ES sells down i will be looking for opps to get long around support areas on the 30 min chart. The first level is the 1313-1314 area. I will be cautious around here because of a possible pullback on the daily and will be looking for selling to shut off by 1304-1306 area. On the upside i will be looking for responsive sellers above value high at 1320-1322 area but will also be cautious here because of a possible continuation in the move up. We also have 1329-1331 resistance above that i expect the buying to shut off at. Over all be patient and wait for the market to set up the range and go from there.

End of day review Tuesday 2-8-11

So ES traded within a balanced area as expected. We just didn't get the rotations i thought we would get. I tried a short at the globex highs and this was good for 2 points and the long this morning i took was good for at least 4 points and i should have held this with a runner for the 4 point target. I described in 2nd trade i will only leave runners if the wind is at my back and will take both lots off for 2 points when the market doesn't support a runner. Just things i need to do to adapt to becoming a more efficient trader.

1St Trade: The context is bullish and first support was globex lows at 1314 area. We also had a neutral macro structure. So i was waiting for a move to get long into and when we tested globex lows the order flow shifted to the buy side and the book firmed up on the bid giving me the confidence to get long at 14.25. I felt good about this trade. I did take a point of heat. I don't think i jumped in to early we just had one more flush of the sellers before buyers took control. I took one off for 2 points and let the other run for 3 but i took second off for 2 when i saw the sellers keeping price at bay. In hind sight it wasn't a good idea to move my second target. But i want to keep with my plan of taking my position off at +2 so i can build up my size quicker. Once i am trading a 3 lot i will take 2 off for + 2 points and let other ride for extended targets.

2nd Trade: I took this trade after the rejection of globex highs. It was a counter trend trade but everything lined up for me so i pulled the trigger. I only took 1 tick of heat but it took forever to follow through. I had 1 target at 2 points and other at 3 and I'm starting to realize that is not such a good idea. The reason is the risk to reward for the runner. If i take one off for 2 points and let the other run for 3 points my risk to reward is 2:1 on the runner. So i would be risking the 2 points i already have to make 1 more point. That doesn't make too much sense to me especially on a counter trend trade when trying to get 2 points is hard enough. So what i will do for now on is take 2 points on both lots and will take full position off at 2 points in the future unless I'm going with the trend and context. In other words i need the wind at my back to leave a runner on for at least 4 points or more. Then i will have at least a 2:2 risk to reward for the runner.

Pre Market Analysis 2-8-11 Tuesday

News: No notable releases out today

Daily chart Notes: ES is still in an uptrend and showing no signs of changing any time soon. We have broken the previous range highs and have made new highs on the year yesterday. So the trend remains up.

MP Notes: We had a big week last week and ES should start ranging which is yet to be established. Sunday globex saw ES put value higher up and Monday followed through to the upside establishing value at new highs of the year. Last night globex has put value in the same area as yesterdays sessions. We have a neutral macro at the moment and I'm expecting a range bound session to set up today.

Trade plan: My bias in ES is bullish because we buyers have been in control for a little while now. The trend is up and no since in fighting it. So i will be looking for opportunities to buy pullbacks into support levels laid out on my 30 min chart. With the lack of catalyst out today i will be expecting a balanced session and will look to play at the extremes. In the case that ES trades lower i will be looking for long trades back into target areas above. The first level of support is globex lows around 1313-1314 and i will see what happens around there. Then below that is 1304-1306 area which is strong support and i expect buyers to be active there on first test of that area. In the case of some more buying coming into ES i will wait to see signs of the buying to exhausting at the highs of the year before i take any shorts down into target areas. 1321-1323 is resistance above high of day yesterday and globex high and this would be a great area for sellers to step in and try to push ES down into support. Also worth noting is volume has been really light up here making new highs.

2-7-11 Monday

Didn't have any time this morning to do pre market analysis or put together a trade plan for the day. I was very busy with work. Any how i did do some quick analysis and based on the over night structure setting up as a bullish macro type structure along with the open drive type open i started to look for pullbacks to get long on. I didn't sit down at my computer till 10:30 or so and i saw a long so i jumped on it and was in and felt good about it but because of all the commotion at work i wasn't really in touch with my mind and ended up scratching this one and going out side to tend to an issue. The trade would have been good for a few points. The next trade i took was another pull back into POC that developed in the C session on the MP chart. This is usually good for a nice move going with the trend. I took a few ticks of heat on this one at first then it went for me by 1.5 points and came back to my entry so i scratched. The scratch was good cause i had to go outside any how and the market has been chopping around the VPOC since then so what ever. I will wait for the next one. Last trade of the day was a long off of the retest of globex highs. I didn't like this area at first but after the market traded there for a few minutes and i was watching the book and order flow on MD i decided to jump in. At first i was looking for a move back into VPOC at 1318.25 and ended up taking 2 off for 2 points. I usually don't like taking trades around 3:30 or later because if i take a loss i wont have an opportunity to get it back . OK done for the day. Back again tomorrow to do it all over again...

End of day Review 2-4-11 Friday

 ES had a neutral reaction to the NFP number and the market didn't really move after the initial release. My expectation today was to wait and see how ES reacted to the release and being that it was neutral i shifted to a balanced session type scenario. ES tested the highs and provided a short opp at 1306 that i wasn't comfortable taking but in hind sight it was good risk to reward and i should have taken it. I also need to be comfortable with my levels that I want to trade. I originally had my levels at 1296.50-1298.50 and i liked them but changed them to 1301-1299 because of what someone else had. I hind sight my levels worked with my view of market context and i need to be comfortable with my analysis not someone else's. It's ok to have someone as a guide when you don't know what you are doing but it's also important to trust yourself or you will just be a follower though out trading career. And that won't cut it for me.

1st Trade: I took this trade to early. What can i say... I wanted to see it test lows of the day but i jumped the gun and got in to early and it cost me 2 points. I know where i messed up and i know what i did wrong so my fault.

2nd Trade: I took a short after market broke the lows of the day. It was a bad trade and i bailed and flipped long with a 2 tick loss. I usually wont flip positions but being where the market was i knew i was on the wrong side of the trade and wanted to get long quickly after i realized it. After getting short the market didn't follow through and bids firmed up in the book telling me to get long at this important support area.

3rd Trade: This was the trade i flipped long on and good thing cause the market followed through pretty quickly to the upside. I took 1 off for 3 points and held the other for original target of 6 points. Market hit 61.8% retrace and offers stuck in the book so i should have exited there on the other. I decided to hold out for the 1304.75 target giving me 6 points but on the little pull back into globex lows i was taken out for +2 points. ( I locked in 2 after being up 4). What i should have done was keep stop below something to give some protection. Instead i left stop at +2 points which was globex low and thats where the market stopped at and moved up to my target at 1304.75.

Pre Market Analysis 2-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM

Daly Chart notes: ES is managing to hold above the 1298 area. We did dip down to 1290 on a test by the sellers and selling shut off at 1290 as expected. We bounced back up and market is waiting for NFP at 8:30AM

MP Notes: ES tested down to 1290 area and bounced back up to the high of the balance area as expected. We have been balancing in a range 1298-1306 above the previous balance area. Yesterday say ES test 1290 then bounce up trading value most of the day the closed above value at the end of the day. Buyers are still in control. Globex balanced in a small range over night waiting for the big NFP release at 8:30AM. We have a bullish macro structure but we will have to wait for the release to see how the market reacts to the news.

Trade plan: Buyers are still in control above 1290 area and ES is set up with a bullish structure. We have to wait for the NFP release to see how the market reacts to it. In the case of a bearish reaction ES could trade back down into the range of previous value. And we could see a possible long liquidation type day again. I would expect selling to shut off buy 1274 area and will look to get short to join the move. In the case of a bullish reaction i expect ES to make new highs on the year and i will look to catch pullbacks into support area on the 30 min chart to go-long with the move. Over all i will be patient and let the market tell me what it wants to do.