End of day Review 2-4-11 Friday

 ES had a neutral reaction to the NFP number and the market didn't really move after the initial release. My expectation today was to wait and see how ES reacted to the release and being that it was neutral i shifted to a balanced session type scenario. ES tested the highs and provided a short opp at 1306 that i wasn't comfortable taking but in hind sight it was good risk to reward and i should have taken it. I also need to be comfortable with my levels that I want to trade. I originally had my levels at 1296.50-1298.50 and i liked them but changed them to 1301-1299 because of what someone else had. I hind sight my levels worked with my view of market context and i need to be comfortable with my analysis not someone else's. It's ok to have someone as a guide when you don't know what you are doing but it's also important to trust yourself or you will just be a follower though out trading career. And that won't cut it for me.

1st Trade: I took this trade to early. What can i say... I wanted to see it test lows of the day but i jumped the gun and got in to early and it cost me 2 points. I know where i messed up and i know what i did wrong so my fault.

2nd Trade: I took a short after market broke the lows of the day. It was a bad trade and i bailed and flipped long with a 2 tick loss. I usually wont flip positions but being where the market was i knew i was on the wrong side of the trade and wanted to get long quickly after i realized it. After getting short the market didn't follow through and bids firmed up in the book telling me to get long at this important support area.

3rd Trade: This was the trade i flipped long on and good thing cause the market followed through pretty quickly to the upside. I took 1 off for 3 points and held the other for original target of 6 points. Market hit 61.8% retrace and offers stuck in the book so i should have exited there on the other. I decided to hold out for the 1304.75 target giving me 6 points but on the little pull back into globex lows i was taken out for +2 points. ( I locked in 2 after being up 4). What i should have done was keep stop below something to give some protection. Instead i left stop at +2 points which was globex low and thats where the market stopped at and moved up to my target at 1304.75.

Pre Market Analysis 2-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM

Daly Chart notes: ES is managing to hold above the 1298 area. We did dip down to 1290 on a test by the sellers and selling shut off at 1290 as expected. We bounced back up and market is waiting for NFP at 8:30AM

MP Notes: ES tested down to 1290 area and bounced back up to the high of the balance area as expected. We have been balancing in a range 1298-1306 above the previous balance area. Yesterday say ES test 1290 then bounce up trading value most of the day the closed above value at the end of the day. Buyers are still in control. Globex balanced in a small range over night waiting for the big NFP release at 8:30AM. We have a bullish macro structure but we will have to wait for the release to see how the market reacts to the news.

Trade plan: Buyers are still in control above 1290 area and ES is set up with a bullish structure. We have to wait for the NFP release to see how the market reacts to it. In the case of a bearish reaction ES could trade back down into the range of previous value. And we could see a possible long liquidation type day again. I would expect selling to shut off buy 1274 area and will look to get short to join the move. In the case of a bullish reaction i expect ES to make new highs on the year and i will look to catch pullbacks into support area on the 30 min chart to go-long with the move. Over all i will be patient and let the market tell me what it wants to do. 

End of day review 2-3-11 Thursday

So the market played out again as expected. I tried getting long twice on that move down to 1290s area only to be left in the dust. Market traded at my price twice and no fill both times and i wasn't about to go chasing the market. My morning plan called for me to be a buyer if we traded down into 1297-1295 area. As price approached that area momentum picked up and bids were disappearing so i had no interest in trying to get long at that level. My line in the sand was 1290-1291.75 area and after the prod into that level the market quickly rejected it showing me the buyers were active there. So that's where i tried getting long but no go. There was a little scalp trade at 50% retrace after the sell off but i was more interested in getting long and was expecting the market to move back through that retrace level. there was a long playing that range at 1298s but i was busy with work a didn't notice it till later on. Always tomorrow...

Pre Market Analysis 2-3-11 Thursday

News: Factory orders @ 10AM, ISM NON mfg index @ 10AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM

 Daily Chart notes:  We still have a break out situation and ES has been putting in value yesterday and in globex so we need to see ES hold above 1296.50 area to stay bullish.

MP Notes: ES is building value above recent balance area value and we have a 2 week POC at 1293 area giving market support. Globex has been in a small light volume balance area and has built out slightly lower than yesterday session. So we still have a bullish to neutral macro.

Trade Plan: With ES holding above 1296 area my bias will remain bullish. We have a few catalyst out today after market opens that could provide some movement out of this area in either direction. In the case of a bullish reaction i want get long around support at 1296 or 1290s area. I don't like getting long above that unless we break the highs and come back for a retest after building out a little bit of value up there. In the case of a bearish reaction i will look to short around the highs of the range or might be more aggressive at globex highs.  If we break below 1295-1297 area i will look to be a seller on a retest of that area and will target areas below for exits. Over all i will be patient and wait for the releases at 10AM and see how the market reacts to them and let the day set up before taking anything if im not sure about the set up.

End of day review 2-2-11 Wednesday

   So Es played out as expected today trading in a range from 1304-1298. There were a few good opps to trade today but other than that it was pretty dead. We only traded just less than 1 million contracts which is very light. Any way i was glad to get 3.5 points today. With ES in this new area of the market and putting in value all day along with the bullish weekly IB  its a good sign for the market to move higher. I would like to see ES test the previous value area at 1298 during RTH so i can get long for a swing trade and hold it for a few days as we make new highs. I may keep an eye on it tonight to see if we get down there and maybe put on  a trade for a few lots and hold on. We shall see...

  1st Trade: I took this trade because the market was in range mode and i was expecting a balanced session. After ES topped out at resistance level at 1304.25 I started looking for a place to get short. I waited for order flow to signal a short and i used the book to lean on an order to position myself in the book. What i saw in the book was offers chasing the market down after the bounce off of resistance so that was the green light for me to get short. Also VB was diverging. (see chart)

2nd Trade: I got long for a scalp trade off a trend line. I used the book to get into this one and watched for bids to firm up as price approached the trend line. When i saw the bids stick i got long in front of one and i only took 1 tick of heat. It took some time for the market to follow through. Price hit my target several times but didn't fill so I just took 1.5 and called it a day.

Pre Market Analysis 2-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP Employment report @8:15AM, Challenger job cut report @ 7:30AM, MBA purchase applications@ 7:00AM, Nothing substantial after the open.

Daily chart notes: ES has broken out of the recent balance area of 1296-1267.50 and closed near the highs of the day making new highs on the year.

MP notes: ES had a big up day yesterday breaking the value established over the last few weeks. ES managed to close above the recent value area and within the value established on the day. With globex session trading in the same value area of yesterday. That gives us a bullish to neutral macro structure. We also have a bullish weekly IB so I'm expecting support to hold and looking for a move higher to search for more sellers. We could get another 16 point move to the upside which is half the weekly IB range.

Trade Plan:  Im expecting ES to balance for the day with no meaningful catalyst out today. We have a breaking of value type scenario with 1298 as the top of the previous value area. So i will be looking for a retest of this area for longs and also for a swing trade. For the swing trade i need to see ES build value here for 1 day then look for the retest to get long and hold for a few days. On the short side if ES forms a range i will look to sell the top and buy the bottom.

No post today, feeling sick.

Started to not feel to well over the weekend so decided not to trade today cause my mind isn't clear. So no post today hopefully will feel better tomorrow and back to my routine. Being sick today makes me realize a few things when it comes to trading. You have to be Physically, mentally, and spiritually fit to trade. Waking up every day and sitting behind a computer all day long will tear your body and mind to shreds. So i have decided that im gonna put my self on a health plan. Nothing drastic, something easy with small obtainable goals to help me reach my bigger goal. Just some lite cardio a few times a week a long with meditating at least 30 minutes a day to help shut the chatter off in my mind (and i have a lot lol). Im generally in good shape not over weight and i eat good and i try to stay active as much as possible. I haven't been sleeping to well over the last week because of getting up so early to be at work to have all my analysis done before 8:00AM.  So i will make sure i get plenty of sleep this week. I feel these are necessary things that a trader must do in order to really have control over you mind. And to help with the learning process.