End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

So today was a good day with ES opening and trying to go lower then bouncing up into the highs of the balance area. This is where i got short and traded back down into 50% retrace level which ended up being a good target (see trades chart). Then we had FOMC announcement at 2:15PM and the market was dead leading up to that. So i waited till after the release to put on another trade but couldn't find anything to trade other than selling the top and i dint want to sell their due to the bullish context.

1st Trade: Took a short at the resistance zone which is the top of the balance area 1295-1268. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active up there due to the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Responsive sellers did step in and push ES down into a retrace level where i exited for 3 points. Felt good with this trade and was confident holding it for second target. I was patient and waited for the market to tell me when to get short. Most heat i took was 2 ticks.

Pre Market Analysis 1-26-11 Wednesday

News: New home sales@ 10AM, FOMC announcement @ 2:15PM

Daily chart notes: The daily chart is still in an uptrend and has recently pulled back and found support at 1268 area. We are now trading at the high of the current balance area.

MP notes: ES has been in the middle of last week's range of 1268-1295 and is currently trading at the top of that area at 1293 as of writing this. We are putting in a P shape at the top and we need to watch for a break of the level because of this. ES also closed above the value that was established during the session with buyers in control. We also have a neutral weekly IB. And globex value has built above yesterdays value indicating a bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: With FOMC out today im expecting the market to be range bound leading up to that announcement. After the announcement i will watch to see how the market reacts off of the established levels for the day and the premarket levels. With ES trading at the top of the balance area it is a great place for responsive sellers to step in but i will wait to gauge price action at that level when and if it gets there. Buyers are in full control above the 1282 CVPOC and i expect pullbacks into support levels on the 30 min chart to be bought. I will be cautious selling around the top of the range because a break out is highly likely and i will trade risk accordingly. If ES can manage to break below globex lows at 1286 it would be a warning sign of a possible test of the CVPOC below at 1282 area. After 1282 area we have 1278 area below and then 1275 area. Being that we are at the top of the range we could get responsive buyers come in right from the open so i will be looking for that as well.

End of day Review 1-25-11 Tuesday

     So today the market confirmed the 1278 level as key support. Really dont like when the market trades around the CVPOC. So my levels played out pretty well today but for some reason i didnt make any good trades that resulted in being up on the day. I ended me day pretty much flat (see trades chart). I think its because we are not trading at an extrem and i found it difficult to have a bias on the day. Es opened today and tested the 78 support area offering a good long opp back into resistance above. It was ahead of the figure so i would have exited a little early but still a good trade. We traded back down 1282.50 then bounced from there back into resistance area at 1285.50-1287.00 which gave an opp to sell short but i didn't take it cause i wasn't sure. Then some momentum kicked in and ES sold off to test the 78 level below. I took a short on the break and retrace of globex level at 1281.75 . I jumped the gun a little on that one so need to be more patient but it was good for 1.5 points and i jumped out early as well. I tried to buy the bounce off of 1278 area and market traded at my price but i didn't fill so tough luck on that one. Then eS put in a nice bounce back above globex level and i took a long on the retrace back to it and got out for 1.5 then ES tanked and retested 1278 area once again where i got long and it looked good at first but stopped my for BE then took off. Perhaps i should have looked to get long again there. Over all todays action is bullish and i should expect a move higher tomorrow.

1st Trade: I took this trade on the back of the consumer confidence figure. It came out way better than expected and popped up then retraced back down where i tried to get long off of A session high. The market ended going a few ticks past my stop and i was taken out. In hind sight what i should have done was waited to see the buyers show there hand a little more and this would have given me a better trade location and could have scratched if i need to. Also could have stayed out of the way of the momentum push down. Over all should have waited and been more patient.

2nd Trade: I took a short off the break of the globex lows area on the back of that momentum that kicked in before lunch. The only problem i can point out is i got in a tad too early and sat through a few ticks of heat. I was short at 80.75 and should have waited for a bit more of a retrace up to globex lows. Also i exited for only 1 point because i saw a lot of buyers coming into the market. My original target was hit so i shouldn't have thought too much into it and waited for my target price.

3rd Trade: I missed this fill but wanted to high light it any way. I tried getting long at 79.50 and market traded down to my price but it didn't fill. Just a little unlucky there i guess. It ended up being a great trade.

4th Trade: Es traded down to 1278 key support (and i missed my long there) then bounced up during lunch hour. we broke back above globex lows which was a low volume area on the profile at the time. So i got long at globex lows and was looking for 2 points but the market shut off and started seeing sellers enter the market so i bailed on 1 lot for 1.5 points and left the other to run in case we went higher. Ended up getting stopped for BE on the second.

5th Trade: Market came back down to 78 support which is a key level for the ES. buyers stepped in at 1278 and i bought right in front of them i was up 2 points and went to break even cause i was expecting higher prices (1282ish) After topping out at 1280.50 ES whipped right around and stopped me out for BE... On to the next one. update this trade went on to hit my original target at 1282.25 for 4 points...

Pre Market Analysis 1-25-11 Tuesday

News: FOMC meeting begins, S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9:00AM, Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: Market has been forming a new range from 1268-1295 we are currently in the middle of that range and at the most excepted prices. Over all the market has been in an uptrend and no signs of changing as of yet. I want to see ES above 1268 and 1258 to keep longer term bullish bias going forward. We have broken out of a rising wedge and are retesting the back part of the bottom trend line so this could give a little bit of selling.

MP Notes: ES has been in the middle of the forming balance area. 1268-1295. Globex tried to move higher over night but has since sold down a little bit. Globex value is in the same area as yesterdays value indicating no real shift in sentiment from yesterday. ES did manage to close above established value and formed a P shape on the day showing signs of a continued move up is likely. ES has been filling in the low volume area on the 60 min chart that has the profile on it. ES is still around CVPOC at 1282

Trade plan: So we finally have a few figures out today (see above) We are in the middle of the developing balance area and at CVPOC which is an area of usually choppy price action. So with the catalyst out today hopefully we will be able to move out of this area. Im not to eager to get into any trades around this area. ES has tested the upper part of the value area last night at 1291.75 and was meet with responsive sellers pushing ES down to1282 as of writing this. A break and hold below 1277-1279 area could lead to a move lower to test 1273.50-1275.50 CLVN area. A move below that will be a red flag for buyers as a test of the lower end of the range at 1268 is likely in which case if we test the 1268 area i will look for long opps there as i expect selling to shut off around there. I will look to be a responsive buyer at the support areas below that are laid out on the 30 min chart because of the over ll context being bullish (daily uptrend). If ES manages to hold above 1277-1279 and the CVPOC at 1282 then the expectation is for ES to move higher. If ES moves higher i will look to be a responsive seller above value at the resistance levels on the 30 min chart around globex highs area. Over all in gonna be patient and see how the market reacts to the news release at 10AM EST

Review and analysis for Monday 1-24-11

Last week ES traded below key support at 1274 area and bounced off of the VPOC of that balance area below (1274-1258). Fridays session spent the day establishing value back into the range and making for a false break type situation. ES traded down to 50% retrace of the move also the lows in globex . So the expectation was for the market to trade higher if we can stay above 1274 area and we have been trending higher throughout the day. For the most part the market played out according to my expectations. The only problem was i didn't follow my plan this morning and i should have been looking to get long on that second test of the open which was in a support area. I

1st Trade: I took this trade on a test of the highs as resistance and the order flow died above that resistance. The trade resulted in taking a scratch. I think the reason was because it was bad trade location and i took some heat on it because of it. i should have stuck with my original plan and waited for the globex highs area which is the first resistance zone on my chart. This would have offered a better trade location and higher chance of seeing a rotation.

 2nd Trade: This trade was taken because the market got to my resistance area that i wanted to trade at. My expectation was for the market to move higher but i was also looking for opps to sell at resistance due to the expectation of a balanced market. I took a scratch on this trade after it got in front a point. I didn't see any follow through from the sellers so i tightened up my risk and bailed when i had the opp to do so. I only took a tick of heat on the trade so entry was good. I might have been better waiting for a better test of this area.

3rd trade: This trade was a break trade of an intraday support level. The market topped out at 1288.75 then traded lower and selling picked up as it broke the 1285.50 level. i waited for the retrace and got short. The market started chopping around and i decided to exit after being 1 point in front then bouncing back up to my entry. The market bounced right off the VWAP and the 50 % retrace of the move up on the day. This was the correct move i made cause ES popped back up. I guess this day was meant to close higher lol.

Trade plan and levels for Monday 1-24-11

News: No releases today

Daily chart notes: ES is still in an uptrend and the recent action can be viewed as a pullback in the uptrend. Es came down and tested the VPOC from the recent consolidation that was broken last week and put in a weak bounce. I will monitor for follow through to the upside.

MP Notes:  As of writing this Sundays session is at 1280.25 and putting in a b shape profile indicating people wanting to sell or long liquidation. We are still in the same area as Fridays value that built out over the session. We have support at 1273s and low of last week at 1268 which is also where the VPOC from the composite is at. On the profile we are sat in the middle of last week's range so not expecting much today

Trade plan: ES tested the POC last week and bouncing back above major support and off a trend line. Im expecting ES to trade higher if we can hold above 1274s. If ES breaks below globex low area at 1278 that would be a red flag for buyers and a possible test is likely of the 1274s area and the 1268s area. If 1268 fails then a test of the low volume area at 1258 which is the bottom of the recent balance area is likely. Over all being in the middle of the range last week and lack of catalyst out today im expecting a balanced session and will be looking to play at the extremes. We have a gap fill at 1276 and would be a good target if short from globex highs resistance zone.

  I will look to be a responsive seller at globex highs area around 1284s if we break above that i will look to be a responsive seller at the highs of the year around 1295s where i expect buying to shut off. On the down side i will look for long opps to go with the pull back at the 50% retrace level of the move from the lows if ES breaks globex lows at 1278s area it would be a red flag and leave the door open for a retest of the 1274s support and ultimately 1268 area. I will be cautious at the 1274s area and would rather look to be a buyer at 1258s. Overall i will wait for the open to set up and be patient.