Busy times at work = bad trading...

Been busy the past few days. Trading hasn't been going to well the past few days. I have been tied up with work and it has been taking its toll on me emotionally. I have realized that this has been interfering with my trading. So i have taken some precautions to help with this. Im pretty much back to break even with the beginning of the year and i am really close to going back on sim as per my MM rules. So i need to be careful and trade smart. I have also had some issues with my charting and data feed. I recently switched my computers and have nothing but issues with the one im using now so i think i will switch back. I have also realized that i need to be fully prepared in the morning and im just not ready to trade when the market opens. I find myself fooling around and thinking about whether my levels are in the right spot of not. I realize this is not a good habit so i am making changes to the way i get prepared in the morning. I will do my levels and analysis at night from my home after the market closes. Then i will email them and put them on my chart in the morning when i get to work. Then all i have to do is just make some final adjustments for globex session then im ready. It is very important to be confident and comfortable before trading. When the market opens, sit back relax and wait for the market to come to your level where you wanna trade for the day.

End of day Review 2-22-11 Tuesday

At first my expectation was for ES to trade back up to the value area high at 1342 area with the bullish action in the first 60 mins. ES traded up to 61.8% retrace of the bigger move down and sold off and never looked back. Then when ES reversed and started to trade lower I was looking for shorts below 1319-1321 area which we got at lunch time. After that there wasn’t any good opps for me to take except a long at 1314-1316 level after it chopped around there for a little bit and put in a 30 min reversal candle. It was good for a few points only as ES wanted to trade lower. The 1310.25-1308.25 level shut off the selling as expected. Now that we have continuation and we are away from the highs of the year area maybe we will get some good trade opps going. I will monitor globex tomorrow morning to get an idea of what we can expect tomorrow. Buyers will want to see this above 1306-1309 to stay in control of the bigger picture. If we take out this level then a move down to 1282 is likely.

Trades: See 3 min trades chart for details

Pre Market analysis 2-22-11 Tuesday

News: S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9AM, Consumer Confidence @10AM

Daily Chart notes: ES has been in a slow grind higher on really low volume. Recently we have seen ES break the daily wedge due to the political unrest in the Middle East.

MP Notes: WE sold off during Monday holiday trading and globex has seen ES trade down to the 1322 support level and this has held overnight giving ES a rotation back up. We have a bearish macro with globex value lower than Monday’s session. But given the holiday trade I need to wait for this to play out. Currently we are filling in the C pattern on the weekly profile and with only consumer confidence number released today we could trade around here for the session.

Trade plan: ES has been showing some signs of weakness the past 2 sessions. We have traded down to 1322 area of support and bounced there. The recent action can be viewed as a pullback in this big uptrend. The big picture buyers are still in control and they will not want to see this below 1319-1320 area. I expect the buyers to keep ES above this area and will look to play longs at support for a rotation back up into value high around 1342 area. If the selling continues on the back of a bad consumer confidence number or more Middle East unrest then a break of this support area is likely and I will look to be a seller on any retracements. I expect the 1310-1308 area to hold and the selling to shut off by then. Over all we are having some vertical development and could see ES trade lower today if the buyers can’t keep the market up. If they can then we could be working with the new developing balance are of 1319-1342 but this is yet to be seen.

End of day review 2-18-11 Friday

So the market traded as expected by balancing in a range for the session. At the open we grinded higher into the resistance zone at 1342-1344 where i took a short for 3 points. The situation hasn't changed this week we continue to grind higher and higher on low volume making it a very difficult area to trade. Caution really needs to be taken here and a lot of discipline will keep you out of harm's way. Kev always told me cash is a position and you have to know when NOT to trade. And that is the most difficult part of trading. I had a bad week this week and dug myself into a unnecessary hole if i would have just not traded when i was having them issue with work this week i would have been fine. I did some stupid things and i paid for it. I didn't have to trade especially with me knowing there was nothing to trade with ES being so dead. So next week hopefully ES will be tradable and i will be able to get back what i lost and end the month up. I learned an important lesson this week. In trading you have to except that you will not always be up and when your down you can't let it get to you, once you do it begins to deteriorate your confidence and it seems like you will never be ok again and the end of the world is right around the corner. But this is when you have to dig in and really fall back on your discipline and stick to MM rules. If i was to take one more loser i would have gone on SIM this week till i was able to be confident again. I will see how i do next week and i will be careful and only trade when im not upset about work issues and when the market has something to do. All in all im still pretty new at the game and i know i have a lot to learn. So the journey continues...

1St trade: See trades chart.

Pre Market Analysis 2-18-11 Friday

News: No News out today

Daily chart notes: Same old situation. Big daily wedge and ES grinding higher.

MP Notes: ES closed in the upper part of value yesterday on a P shape day. We had breaking value yesterday and we need to monitor for continued vertical development. Globex has formed value in the upper part of yesterdays range giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: As of yesterday ES is starting is starting to show signs of vertical development and we need to monitor for continuation of this. We broke out of the weeks range and consolidated at the highs and globex has consolidated in yesterdays upper value area giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure. The expectation for today is for Es to trade higher into resistance and look for sellers. We have 1340.50-1342.50 level above and we should see a test of this area giving us a rotation to play to the down side. Without any news out today i expect ES to balance in a range most of the day giving little opps to trade. Buyers are still in control and need ES to stay above 1336-1334.50 level to stay in control. If we break down below that we could see ES trade back down to 1325.75-1327.75 level and then 1322.25 which is the lower part of the range that has recently developed.

New Markets

Recently ES has been a bitch to say the least. So i have decided to look at some other market and i will start sim trading them on monday. I will post screen shots of the Sim trades i take and why along with PNL Im doing this because honestly i cant stand the way Es has been trading. The daily chart says it all. I will be looking at 6E euro/usd and ZN 10 year.

End of day review 2-17-11 Thursday

ES opened and at first was below pre market resistance which gave me a bearish bias. Then we reversed and trended higher the rest of the day. Not crazy about trading in this area so will be very careful and will wait for something good to set up.

1st trade and only: This trade i took at resistance because i was expecting the market to reverse and rotate lower back to value instead ES decided to go higher and i was stopped for 8 ticks. This is ok for me because i had a plan today and i followed it. This was a case of ES just not rotating and the day turning into a trend type day.