Pre Market analysis 3-18-11 Friday

News: No news out today

Daily chart notes: The daily chart has been moving lower but the days are trading back and forth inside of each other showing the market can't make up its mind. The trend is down shorter term and i need to keep an eye on this PB to see how far we retrace.

30 Min chart notes: The shorter term trend appears to have changed we bounced off of support 2 days ago and consolidated pulled back and now are moving higher in globex. I will look to buy support and will be carful at resistance areas above but will still look for rotations at the resistance zones.

MP notes: Globex has been building a value area with all this volatility. the top of the recent range is the 1280-1285 area were i expect responsive sellers to be active. Globex has formed a p shape over night and i need to mindful of a possible break to the upside. The macro structure is bullish.

Trade plan: Yesterday ES balanced in a range building acceptance higher up. The selloff has been putting in over lapping value and not really making any progress on the down side. Each time we shoot lower it is quickly rejected back up into the range. We have broken the wedge also so im expecting a move higher. Globex shot up over night on some good news i assume out of Japan. We are coming into an area of strong resistance around 1280-1285 and i will monitor if this area will hold or not. I will be cautious on selling around here as i expect a move higher up. If the 1280-1284 area break it will open the doors for a move up into resistance zones above. I will be looking for buying opps into support and selling into resistance. 

End of day review 3-17-11Thursday

My bias going into the day was bullish and i was looking only on the long side in the morning. I was tied up with work in the morning and couldn't be at my computer till later in the session. I took a few trades and got stopped or took a BE.

     I'm really having a tough time figuring out what the heck im doing wrong. I always find myself on the wrong side of the trade. I mean come on it fucking 50/50 its either gonna go up or down. So i remain optimistic and im willing to keep trying. I think i have to not wait so much for confirmation as well. I need to identify the setup, assign risk, get confirmation, take and mange trade. Its really that simple. I find myself second guessing a set up and hesitating on taking the trade then it moves in my favor then i look to get in and that cost me good trade location and missed trades.

Pre Market analysis 3-17-11 Thursday

News: CPI Index @8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15 AM, Leading indicators @ 10AM, Philadelphia Fed survey @ 10AM

Daily Chart notes: The market has been sliding down pretty hard on the back of the Japan crisis. We are in a down trend and have hit strong support. I will watch for a bounce to set up.

30 Min chart Notes: We are in a down trend on the 30 min as well and putting in nice rotation in a falling wedge type pattern.

MP notes: It looks like we have a range setting up on the profile. Globex has been trending higher most of the session. We are mid range and could retest the 1282-1285 area today. We also have a P shape on the vol profile.

Trade plan: ES sold off yesterday down to strong support around 1240-1242 area and we bounced from there showing us that the responsive buyers were active. We traded back up into the day's range and closed around 1252 area. The sellers are still in control but we are wedging lower so i will keep an eye on a bounce forming. On the profile i can see ES trading back up into resistance at 1280-1285 area were there may be responsive sellers active. Over all the sellers are in control and i will look to take short opps around the resistance levels. I may look for long setups back up into the highs of the developing balance area.

End of day review 3-16-11 Wednesday

ES opened and chopped around for some time. We started chopping higher than some news about Japan and the nuclear issues over there came out and ES sold down 20points retesting yesterdays lows. We then put in a few bounces into resistance and proceeded to chop around a little longer. After testing resistance at lunch time we sold off hard again find new levels of support at around 1241s which was quickly rejected and snapped back up 20 points back into the range of yesterday. My levels worked well today I'm happy with them. I just missed some good opps due to work and lunch time. But that's ok i will catch them next time. Going to start keeping a list of "stuff to work on" and review every day and night to ingrain it into my subconscious mind. 2 trades today 1 for +2 points and 1 for -2 points so BE day for me.

Stuff i need to work on:

1.       Stop trying to guess what is going to happen. I find that i say something like "the picture was bullish yesterday so wecould trade back up into so and so area" Instead of reading my charts and taking a trade based on that.

Pre Market Analysis 3-16-11 Wednesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM

Daily chart notes: The market is still in a down trend and bounced off of the 50% retrace level from the beginning of the last move up on 12-1-10.

30 Min chart notes: The 30 min chart still is in a down trend and needs to be monitored for follow through in either direction.

Mp Notes: The profile has been building value lower down. Globex has stayed inside of yesterday value area giving me no real indication of a change in sentiment.

Trade plan: ES traded higher yesterday after being down 40 points before cash open. we managed to regain alot of ground lost. Its hard to say what i think could happen we are still in an down trend and that could be just a pullback in the down trend. Im going to wait for the market to open to get an idea of what to expect today. Only a few news release out today so not expecting much from them.

End of day Review 3-15-11 Tuesday

The market open and responsive buyers were active off the open. there were a few nice pullbacks along the way to join the move but for some reason i scratched my long. Mostly due to the uncertainty of what could happen. ES moved higher throughout the day and chopped a little it ahead of the FOMC at 2:15 pm. Buyers came in any chance they could and pushed ES to new highs on the day. I was waiting for a reversal at some point but it never came and i sat bored mostly all day. What else is new lol. Levels traded well today im happy with them. Need to focus more on reading the open of the market i should have tried longs more aggressively instead of waiting for a reversal. Read what the market is telling me don't make assumptions based off of what i think will happen. That's all folks ...

Pre Market Analysis 3-15-11 Tuesday

News: Empire state Mfg Survey @ 8:30AM, Housing market index @ 10AM, FOMC announcement @ 2:15PM

Daily chart notes:  Es has traded down to the 1254 area in the overnight session. So we will have a big gap down to deal with today. We are in a confirmed downtrend and i will be monitoring the bounces for strength.

30 Min Chart notes: The 30 min chart has been in a down trend and Fridays action seemed to be a pullback in the down trend. We have a massive selloff in globex session and this confirms we are in a down trend. I will monitor for weak bounces.

Trade plan: yesterday ES traded around the key support level chopping it all up. So i assumed we were going to have a range extension. We closed back up into the range by the end of the day erasing most of the day's losses. In globex we have had a massive move lower (40 +/- points) due to the Nuclear uncertainty in Japan. Its hard to say if we keep moving lower or not because this is a news driven event. We could snap back up at the open. We have FOMC out today later in the afternoon. So i usually would expect choppy price action leading up to that. But in light of globex action i really don't know what to expect today. What i do know is that ES was starting a new down trend and has sold off down to strong support at 1252-1254 so i will have to see if this area holds or not. If this area holds then i will be looking for selling opps around the resistance areas above as we start to put in a bounce. If we do break lower i will be looking for long opps after we have found some exhaustion selling and start to chop for a bit. So i will stay patient and wait for the open to see how the market reacts to the news.