Pre Market Analysis 3-3-11 Thursday

News: ECB announcement @ 7:45AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, ISM Non MFG Index @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES has been balancing in a recent balance area  1293-1336 an the expectation is for ES to continue to balance until we get a catalyst to move us out of this area. Es almost hit the bottom of the balance area and is now making its way back to the top area. We are mid range right now.

MP Notes: ES placed value higher up yesterday and globex is now trading higher placing value higher up as well. the expectation is for ES to continue its move higher up to the top of the range area.

Trade plan: With ES placing value higher up i have to expect ES to continue its move back to the other side of the bigger balance area (1336). We are pretty much neutral on the week in terms of a bias based on the weekly IB. So a rotation back up to the highs is not out of the question. I will be looking to buy support areas on my 30 min chart for moves up into resistance. As for the down side i will be a seller at resistance areas above but i will not initiate shorts to early. I will wait to see how the market reacts to the figures out before placing any trades in either direction.

Pre Market Analysis 3-2-11 Wednesday

News: ADP employment report @8:15AM, Beige book @ 2 PM

Daily chart notes: ES sold off hard yesterday showing that we may be starting a new down trend. We stopped right at the major uptrend line from the lows back in august.
We have strong support at 1293 area a break and hold below this would confirm a down trend. We also have 50 MA right below the 1293 area that could act as support. We may also just stay and chop in this bigger range area of 1293-1342. Bottom line is we are still in a strong uptrend.

MP Notes: ES traded almost to the top of the range and sold off hard in yesterday's trading. We had a big trend day down and globex is forming value below yesterdays lows giving us a bearish macro structure. It is a strong possibility that we continue to move lower but usually after such a big move we will consolidate.

Trade plan: For today i will be looking to sell any resistance levels as i believe that responsive sellers will be active on first touch of these areas. I will stay cautious on the long side and will not be looking to be a buyer so quickly. If we do continue to move lower i will be more inclined to be a buyer at support areas below yesterday's trading. In the event we move higher the first area i will be looking at is the globex highs to play the bearish macro structure. Be patient and relax :)

End of day review 3-1-11 Tuesday

Pretty crazy day. It's nice to see ES moving again. Have to admit i started giving up hope. So today wiped out 2 days of gains, you gotta love a selling market. Any way ES was taking no prisoners today breaking a lot of key levels. Today was either your best friend or your worst enemy. Trend days will be like that. You will either kill it or cry on your way home from work. I have had both lol. Fortunately for me today i had a good day taking home 4 points. Not a lot for a 30 point range day but considering the work circumstance I'm happy and thankful. You can see my trades chart for details. I was a little suspicious of the big move up in globex this morning on no news so i was at first looking for PB to get long but after the market opened and headed south pretty quickly i started to change my bias to looking for selling opps. My first area i was looking for longs was globex lows being that we had a bullish macro structure. But with the econ figure out in a few minutes i waited to see the reaction of the market. After the release this area was pretty much trashed. Then the selling came in and i was looking for selling opps from then on. I was able to catch a quick retrace and join the move with only a few ticks of heat.

Pre Market Analysis 3-1-11 Tuesday

News: Bank of Canada announcement @ 9:00 AM, ISM Mfg Index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: ES has been trading higher and building acceptance higher up as well. We are at a possible turning point here and could see ES trade back down to a support level or make it back up to the top of the recent range. We should still view the recent action as a pull back in an uptrend and need to be careful of continuation to the upside. We have broken the 61.8 % retrace from the move down and it looks like it wants to go higher.

MP Notes: Sunday Monday and last night globex has been putting value higher up. We have a P shape structure on yesterday's session and globex has been forming value higher up on yesterdays value giving us a bullish macro structure. So i will be looking for opps to get long.

Trade plan: With value forming higher i will be looking for opps to get long. I will wait for pull backs into support to join the buying back up into the top of the range. If we move back up to globex highs i will be looking for shorting opps. We have support at 1328.75-1330 and then 1326-1327 if we break those areas to the down side i will be looking at 1319-1320 as a strong area of support below that would be a red flag and i will become less aggressive on longs and will be a seller below 1315-1317 area. Over all i will be looking for rotation at my levels and im expecting a balanced session today. We have Obama's report card out on Friday (NFP) so im expecting the market to be somewhat quite this week leading up to that release. Be patient and relax :)

End of Day Review 2-28-11 Monday

ES had a balanced session today trading from level to level offering some good trading opps. I unfortunately i missed the good runs. I still end the day up but not as much as i should have been. I guess a positive day is a positive day. So i am thankful for it. I see where messed up today and i will take note of it so i can adapt and get better in my trading. There is one good trade that i didn't get filled on but was the trade of the day IMO and that was long at 1320 area. I had my order in and market traded at my price but no fill. Over all im very happy with my levels and the change i made last week in how i get prepared for trading has been helping me to feel more confident before the market opens. Until tomorrow have a good night.

1st trade: I went short at 1328.25 after market hit resistance. I ended up  scratching for + a few ticks because this was a very counter trend trade, everything was pointing up and i only took it because we were chopping around and was looking for a rotation to the downside. I ended up getting out to early but that's ok i would rather be out instead of being in wishing i was out.

2nd Trade:  I took a short at 1325.00 1 tick in front of the 15 min double bottom after the move lower. I was correct in selling the 1328.75 level but didn't hold for the follow through. Then ES sold down to 1323.75 and i took the retrace short at 1325 to join the move lower. Unfortunately i was tied up with work and had to go outside so i move to BE and didn't want to let the trade play out without me watching it and i took the BE and went to  handle my work issues then went to lunch. The market did follow through after touching the 1326 resistance level so trade was a nice one, just work interfered with it.

3rd trade: I took a short at 1323.00 playing the down trend line and resistance area. I was stopped for 6 ticks on this one. I didnt really like it but i think i took it because i was bored and i missed the others. Not a good reason to trade. Any way the context was telling me to stay out of it after testing the 1319-1320 level.

4th Trade: I took a long after the trend line broke so i can join the move up. I had a 3 point target on this one because i believed a rotation back up to the highs of the day was in the cards. The market traded to my target and i didn't get filled so i settled for 2 points at 1325.25.

Pre Market analysis 2-28-11 Monday

News: Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM, Pending home sales@ 10 AM,

Daily Chart notes: The daily chart shows a PB in the bigger uptrend. We retraced more then half the move down and it looks like ES may be continuing the move up. I will monitor for buyers at support to continue the move higher. Unless we start to see some more selling come back into the market around this level it is likely to see ES trade back up to the highs.

MP Notes: Looking at the weekly profile ES has been moving the past week. We have recently turned back up and we are around 61.8% retrace of the move down. Looking at the profile we can start to range between 1292-1342. And looking at globex session today we are right in the middle of that range. So caution needs to be taken because we can really go in either direction. Most of the globex session put value in at Fridays session and has recently shot up to 1326-1327 level and is trading up and down there building acceptance at 1324.75.

Trade plan: ES shot up on Fridays session and spent most of the day around composite POC at 1319 area. The market is accepting higher prices and now globex has broken to the upside showing some strength in the pre market session. The plan is to look to buy pull backs into support and sell resistance at my levels. If we break below 1319-1320.50 level it would be a red flag for buyers. If 1315-1317 gives way i will be less likely to be a buyer at support because we mat test lower down to find support. Over all the market is in a tricky area and i need to be cautious in either direction. With ES opening above Fridays value we could get some buying right off the open or a gap fill.