End of day review 3-1-11 Tuesday

Pretty crazy day. It's nice to see ES moving again. Have to admit i started giving up hope. So today wiped out 2 days of gains, you gotta love a selling market. Any way ES was taking no prisoners today breaking a lot of key levels. Today was either your best friend or your worst enemy. Trend days will be like that. You will either kill it or cry on your way home from work. I have had both lol. Fortunately for me today i had a good day taking home 4 points. Not a lot for a 30 point range day but considering the work circumstance I'm happy and thankful. You can see my trades chart for details. I was a little suspicious of the big move up in globex this morning on no news so i was at first looking for PB to get long but after the market opened and headed south pretty quickly i started to change my bias to looking for selling opps. My first area i was looking for longs was globex lows being that we had a bullish macro structure. But with the econ figure out in a few minutes i waited to see the reaction of the market. After the release this area was pretty much trashed. Then the selling came in and i was looking for selling opps from then on. I was able to catch a quick retrace and join the move with only a few ticks of heat.

Pre Market Analysis 3-1-11 Tuesday

News: Bank of Canada announcement @ 9:00 AM, ISM Mfg Index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Daily chart Notes: ES has been trading higher and building acceptance higher up as well. We are at a possible turning point here and could see ES trade back down to a support level or make it back up to the top of the recent range. We should still view the recent action as a pull back in an uptrend and need to be careful of continuation to the upside. We have broken the 61.8 % retrace from the move down and it looks like it wants to go higher.

MP Notes: Sunday Monday and last night globex has been putting value higher up. We have a P shape structure on yesterday's session and globex has been forming value higher up on yesterdays value giving us a bullish macro structure. So i will be looking for opps to get long.

Trade plan: With value forming higher i will be looking for opps to get long. I will wait for pull backs into support to join the buying back up into the top of the range. If we move back up to globex highs i will be looking for shorting opps. We have support at 1328.75-1330 and then 1326-1327 if we break those areas to the down side i will be looking at 1319-1320 as a strong area of support below that would be a red flag and i will become less aggressive on longs and will be a seller below 1315-1317 area. Over all i will be looking for rotation at my levels and im expecting a balanced session today. We have Obama's report card out on Friday (NFP) so im expecting the market to be somewhat quite this week leading up to that release. Be patient and relax :)

End of Day Review 2-28-11 Monday

ES had a balanced session today trading from level to level offering some good trading opps. I unfortunately i missed the good runs. I still end the day up but not as much as i should have been. I guess a positive day is a positive day. So i am thankful for it. I see where messed up today and i will take note of it so i can adapt and get better in my trading. There is one good trade that i didn't get filled on but was the trade of the day IMO and that was long at 1320 area. I had my order in and market traded at my price but no fill. Over all im very happy with my levels and the change i made last week in how i get prepared for trading has been helping me to feel more confident before the market opens. Until tomorrow have a good night.

1st trade: I went short at 1328.25 after market hit resistance. I ended up  scratching for + a few ticks because this was a very counter trend trade, everything was pointing up and i only took it because we were chopping around and was looking for a rotation to the downside. I ended up getting out to early but that's ok i would rather be out instead of being in wishing i was out.

2nd Trade:  I took a short at 1325.00 1 tick in front of the 15 min double bottom after the move lower. I was correct in selling the 1328.75 level but didn't hold for the follow through. Then ES sold down to 1323.75 and i took the retrace short at 1325 to join the move lower. Unfortunately i was tied up with work and had to go outside so i move to BE and didn't want to let the trade play out without me watching it and i took the BE and went to  handle my work issues then went to lunch. The market did follow through after touching the 1326 resistance level so trade was a nice one, just work interfered with it.

3rd trade: I took a short at 1323.00 playing the down trend line and resistance area. I was stopped for 6 ticks on this one. I didnt really like it but i think i took it because i was bored and i missed the others. Not a good reason to trade. Any way the context was telling me to stay out of it after testing the 1319-1320 level.

4th Trade: I took a long after the trend line broke so i can join the move up. I had a 3 point target on this one because i believed a rotation back up to the highs of the day was in the cards. The market traded to my target and i didn't get filled so i settled for 2 points at 1325.25.

Pre Market analysis 2-28-11 Monday

News: Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM, Pending home sales@ 10 AM,

Daily Chart notes: The daily chart shows a PB in the bigger uptrend. We retraced more then half the move down and it looks like ES may be continuing the move up. I will monitor for buyers at support to continue the move higher. Unless we start to see some more selling come back into the market around this level it is likely to see ES trade back up to the highs.

MP Notes: Looking at the weekly profile ES has been moving the past week. We have recently turned back up and we are around 61.8% retrace of the move down. Looking at the profile we can start to range between 1292-1342. And looking at globex session today we are right in the middle of that range. So caution needs to be taken because we can really go in either direction. Most of the globex session put value in at Fridays session and has recently shot up to 1326-1327 level and is trading up and down there building acceptance at 1324.75.

Trade plan: ES shot up on Fridays session and spent most of the day around composite POC at 1319 area. The market is accepting higher prices and now globex has broken to the upside showing some strength in the pre market session. The plan is to look to buy pull backs into support and sell resistance at my levels. If we break below 1319-1320.50 level it would be a red flag for buyers. If 1315-1317 gives way i will be less likely to be a buyer at support because we mat test lower down to find support. Over all the market is in a tricky area and i need to be cautious in either direction. With ES opening above Fridays value we could get some buying right off the open or a gap fill.

End of day review 2-25-11 Friday

So ES pretty much went straight up off the open. We had OTD opening type from the previous day’s high and the market shot up giving no real opps to join the move. We traded right into 1316 poc on the composite and shut off for a while. The expectation for the open was for ES to test lower then move higher. Im assuming that when the market opens above value I need to watch for responsive seller/buyers at the open to get an idea of who will take control of the open. I didn’t really see any good opps today and I only had 2 scratch trades.

   During the last 2 weeks I have been having a hard time with trading, mostly to do with my emotions. Some of it had to do with work but I don’t want to blame work for making me feel the way I did. I have a choice in the way I approach trading. I can either choose to let trading and my job make me feel bad when things aren’t going as planed which effects my results. Or I can choose to not let it affect me at all which is one of the most difficult things to do. But it will allow me to detach myself from being too emotionally invested in trading which I think is a very important trait for traders to have. Over all I didn’t do to bad this week im only down $175 bucks so not a big deal. I believe I have a better grasp on my emotional state and I learned a few good lessons this week. Lessons that I believe are far more important to trading then learning about the technical stuff. I’m going to enjoy the beautiful south Florida sunshine this weekend and hang out with my wife and furry kids. Till next week…

Pre Market Analysis 2-25-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @ 10:00AM

Daily Chart Notes: ES Traded down to 1292 area and was quickly rejected back above the 1297-1299 level which was also the 61.8% fib retrace level of the bigger move down from the highs. The recent action can still be viewed as a pullback in the bigger uptrend. I will now monitor the downtrend pullback to see if it will reverse and go lower and continue the move down or if we start to range and move back up to the highs.

MP Notes: The profile has been placing value lower all week and finally over lapped yesterday. Now Globex is forming value higher up on yesterday’s session giving us a macro structure. We tested the 1297 area and formed a p structure on the day indicating short covering on the lows.

Trade plan: With ES overlapping value yesterday and gobex forming value higher it looks as if the market may be turning and a short term bottom is in place. We still have a bearish IB on the weekly profile and it possible we test lower. I’m expecting support to hold, and looking for the market to make a move higher up. The only catalyst out after the open today is the consumer sentiment number and depending on the market’s reaction to it we could go either way. The first area I will look at for longs is globex low area which is a level on the composite as well. I will also be looking for short opps into resistance area on my 30 min chart. I will be a little more cautious on the short side and will only look to take good solid set ups. The market looks like it is gonna open above yesterdays value so the expected open is OAOR and sellers to step in and push the market into support. Be patient and wait for the market to show its hand before jumping on to anything. RELAX :)