End of day review 3-17-11Thursday

My bias going into the day was bullish and i was looking only on the long side in the morning. I was tied up with work in the morning and couldn't be at my computer till later in the session. I took a few trades and got stopped or took a BE.

     I'm really having a tough time figuring out what the heck im doing wrong. I always find myself on the wrong side of the trade. I mean come on it fucking 50/50 its either gonna go up or down. So i remain optimistic and im willing to keep trying. I think i have to not wait so much for confirmation as well. I need to identify the setup, assign risk, get confirmation, take and mange trade. Its really that simple. I find myself second guessing a set up and hesitating on taking the trade then it moves in my favor then i look to get in and that cost me good trade location and missed trades.

Pre Market analysis 3-17-11 Thursday

News: CPI Index @8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15 AM, Leading indicators @ 10AM, Philadelphia Fed survey @ 10AM

Daily Chart notes: The market has been sliding down pretty hard on the back of the Japan crisis. We are in a down trend and have hit strong support. I will watch for a bounce to set up.

30 Min chart Notes: We are in a down trend on the 30 min as well and putting in nice rotation in a falling wedge type pattern.

MP notes: It looks like we have a range setting up on the profile. Globex has been trending higher most of the session. We are mid range and could retest the 1282-1285 area today. We also have a P shape on the vol profile.

Trade plan: ES sold off yesterday down to strong support around 1240-1242 area and we bounced from there showing us that the responsive buyers were active. We traded back up into the day's range and closed around 1252 area. The sellers are still in control but we are wedging lower so i will keep an eye on a bounce forming. On the profile i can see ES trading back up into resistance at 1280-1285 area were there may be responsive sellers active. Over all the sellers are in control and i will look to take short opps around the resistance levels. I may look for long setups back up into the highs of the developing balance area.