Monday, April 11, 2011

End of day review 4-11-11 Monday "Broke rule"


ES opened with an OD type but was quickly reversed in the first 5 minutes. We then proceeded to trade up to globex highs at 1329.75 and reversed back down to try and close the gap at 1323.00. ES bounced off of IBL at 1325.00 and traded back up into POC on the day at 1327.50 which is the MCVPOC as well and chopped around for some time. We sold down breaking IBL and globex low and traded into my support area at 1322-1324 where i tried a long at. I was stopped here for -6 ticks and not really sure what i did wrong here. Any way we chopped around for a bit and popped back up into globex low where i should have taken a short but for whatever reason i didn't. I was thinking at the time that the market could trade back up into value. Which breaks one of my rules, "Don’t guess what the market is trying to do. Let the charts tell me" I was clearly guessing what the market was trying to do. We were moving lower all day and the market popped up to a pre defined resistance area and i didn't take it. The trade ended up going to extended targets for at least 3-5 points pretty quickly. This is an issue i have to overcome because i realize i do it a lot and it keeps me out of good trades. Overall ES placed the most value higher up but expended lower. We are starting to se weakness in the market so caution is needed playing the range  going into tomorrow and this week.



Pre market analysis 4-11-11 Monday


Trade plan: ES sold off on Friday to the bottom of the recent balance area. We bounced back up into value and closed there. Globex has consolidated in a range between Friday POCs building out value at 1327 which is the MCVPOC also. With a balanced globex and no news release today I'm not expecting much action. I have pre market support at 1322-1324 and i will be looking for buyers to be active there. If we break below that i will be looking for buyers at the next levels down at 1314.50-1316.50 and 1309.50-1311.50 strong support. For the up side i have pre market resistance at 1327.50-1329.50 and im expecting sellers to be active there as well. If we break above that it will bring the 1333.50-1335.50 level back into play then the high of the year above. I will be cautious above the 1333-1335 level because we may get a break of the yearly highs. Over all i will be a buyer of support and a seller below the range highs.