Wednesday, February 16, 2011

End of Day Review 2-16-11 Wednesday

Today is a carbon copy of yesterday. I was tied up with work and got to my seat late again and rushed to find something to trade... Big mistake and i promise myself i will not do it again. The market balanced all day and we are still in this big daily wedge. The ranges are getting tighter and a break out is very likely. So more than likely i will not be trading this week till we get out of this area. I had 3 losers today and hit my daily stop  so i was done for the day. Im a little pissed off with myself but i have no one to blame but me. Im not happy with the way the market grinds higher on the daily chart but hey it is what it is for now. Maybe when uncle Ben is done with the POMO shit the markets will turn back to normal again or at least some volatility will come back.





The "Zone" correct mind set.

The past few days i have not been doing to well. I think its a combination of my job getting in the middle of my though process and the market being in the area that it is in. As far as the market goes We just keep grinding higher on crap volume everyday. It seems to be the normal thing for the market to do. We sell down a few points to some support level and grind higher the rest of the day not offering any opps to join the move up or any place to get short. Very Very frustrating. But you have to take what the market gives you. Unfortunately i haven't seen a market that trades "normally" When i started to learn how to trade it was during the financial crisis and threw 2010 so i didn't really know what was normal and what is not and i still don't. I pretty much just go from what i was told by Kev and what i read about on the internet. As far as work goes i haven't been getting to my computer till well after the market opens. I have my routine all done and my analysis is finished but my mind isn't right. I haven't been able to get into the "zone" . Since the beginning of the year i have had a 180 degree turn around in my trading. And i think it has alot to do with my mind set. I have noticed that since the beginning of the year i have really been in touch with my thought process and the trades i make. But the past 2 days i have been rushing into my seat to try and get some trading in and only just get stopped out 2 or 3 times in a row. I wont get into details about why i have been messed up at work but lets just say that i am really frustrated and upset by the time i sit down. So the point of this post is to high light the importance of having a clear mind and being in the zone when it comes times to trade. And for now on i will not trade unless i am in the zone or correct mindset to put on a trade.

Pre Market Analysis 2-16-11 Wednesday


News:Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Producer price index @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM, FOMC Minutes @ 2:00PM
Daily Chart notes: Daily is still in an uptrend, nothing changed there. We are still in this big rising wedge that may play out over the next few days. Volume is really light up here so caution needs to be taken on long setups.
MP Chart Notes: ES has been balancing in a range all this week so far. Globex has formed value higher up on a p shaped structure making new highs on the year again. The buyers are still in control and he trend remains up until something changes that. We also have a neutral weekly IB structure.
Trade plan: So ES has been going sideways this week after last Fridays break of daily value. We are in the apex of the wedge on the daily chart and i am beginning to not trust these support levels. But the trend is still up so i need to focus on the long side at support until it doesn't work anymore. Don't anticipate a move out of here just let the market show me when it wants to break. Globex has formed a bullish macro on a p shape profile showing me that the market wants to trade higher. We have a few reports due out today along with FOMC minutes at 2PM. The FOMC news is the only catalyst out while the market is open. So after the release before the cash open hit the market im expecting a mostly balanced session today leading up to FOMC at 2PM. Im still bullish and looking to buy support into my levels on my 30 min chart. We have a p shape on globex and support at 1329.50 a break below will be an early sign of weakness and could see ES trade back down to test the POC at 1325-1326 level and then the lows of yesterday.