Thursday, March 31, 2011

End of the day review 3-31-11 Thursday

Ok so ES balanced in a range all day which was expected with NFP out tomorrow. We stayed between the pre market support and resistance levels all day so good job on the levels today. im still expecting globex to balance as well.
   I had 2 trades today 1 st was a short this morning at around 1325 off of trend line and globex highs area. 2 nd i scratched to early because i talked myself out of it. Something i need to work on. When im in a trade i need to understand the context and the probabilities of the trade. And if i agree with them then i need to allow the trade to pan out. If it doesn't look good then get out.




Pre market analysis 3-31-11 Thursday


News: Jobless claims @ 8:30 AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM, Factory orders @ 10AM
Daily chart notes: We had a bearish candle at strong resistance yesterday. ES could be getting a little over extended up here and we may see a pull back. Volume has been dropping off as we move up as well.
Trade plan: ES gapped up and found support then traded higher throughout the day building acceptance at 1325.50. We are at a critical level for ES and it's a place where responsive sellers could step in. We have nonfarm payrolls tomorrow so we could get a balanced session heading into that report tomorrow. With that being said I will be looking for selling and buying opps at the levels on 30 chart. Globex traded in a small range heading into this morning open. We traded down to 1321.75 cvpoc and then back up to 1325.75 building acceptance at 1323.50. I have pre market resistance at 1325.50-1327.50 which is a key level and i expect responsive sellers to be active there. If we break above that there is strong initial resistance above at 1329.50-1331.50 and 1332.50-1334.00 and then the highs of the year. If we break above i expect the buying to shut off at the 1332-1334 area so i will be looking for selling opps at each level above. For the down side i have pre market support at 1319.50-1321.50 where i expect buyers to still be active. Below that i have initial support at 1317.50-1318.50 and then strong support at 1314.50-1316.00. If we start to sell off with momentum then i will less likely to take longs at the support areas and looking for momentum break and retrace trades as long as there is strong momentum in the market.