End of day Review 1-25-11 Tuesday

     So today the market confirmed the 1278 level as key support. Really dont like when the market trades around the CVPOC. So my levels played out pretty well today but for some reason i didnt make any good trades that resulted in being up on the day. I ended me day pretty much flat (see trades chart). I think its because we are not trading at an extrem and i found it difficult to have a bias on the day. Es opened today and tested the 78 support area offering a good long opp back into resistance above. It was ahead of the figure so i would have exited a little early but still a good trade. We traded back down 1282.50 then bounced from there back into resistance area at 1285.50-1287.00 which gave an opp to sell short but i didn't take it cause i wasn't sure. Then some momentum kicked in and ES sold off to test the 78 level below. I took a short on the break and retrace of globex level at 1281.75 . I jumped the gun a little on that one so need to be more patient but it was good for 1.5 points and i jumped out early as well. I tried to buy the bounce off of 1278 area and market traded at my price but i didn't fill so tough luck on that one. Then eS put in a nice bounce back above globex level and i took a long on the retrace back to it and got out for 1.5 then ES tanked and retested 1278 area once again where i got long and it looked good at first but stopped my for BE then took off. Perhaps i should have looked to get long again there. Over all todays action is bullish and i should expect a move higher tomorrow.

1st Trade: I took this trade on the back of the consumer confidence figure. It came out way better than expected and popped up then retraced back down where i tried to get long off of A session high. The market ended going a few ticks past my stop and i was taken out. In hind sight what i should have done was waited to see the buyers show there hand a little more and this would have given me a better trade location and could have scratched if i need to. Also could have stayed out of the way of the momentum push down. Over all should have waited and been more patient.

2nd Trade: I took a short off the break of the globex lows area on the back of that momentum that kicked in before lunch. The only problem i can point out is i got in a tad too early and sat through a few ticks of heat. I was short at 80.75 and should have waited for a bit more of a retrace up to globex lows. Also i exited for only 1 point because i saw a lot of buyers coming into the market. My original target was hit so i shouldn't have thought too much into it and waited for my target price.

3rd Trade: I missed this fill but wanted to high light it any way. I tried getting long at 79.50 and market traded down to my price but it didn't fill. Just a little unlucky there i guess. It ended up being a great trade.

4th Trade: Es traded down to 1278 key support (and i missed my long there) then bounced up during lunch hour. we broke back above globex lows which was a low volume area on the profile at the time. So i got long at globex lows and was looking for 2 points but the market shut off and started seeing sellers enter the market so i bailed on 1 lot for 1.5 points and left the other to run in case we went higher. Ended up getting stopped for BE on the second.

5th Trade: Market came back down to 78 support which is a key level for the ES. buyers stepped in at 1278 and i bought right in front of them i was up 2 points and went to break even cause i was expecting higher prices (1282ish) After topping out at 1280.50 ES whipped right around and stopped me out for BE... On to the next one. update this trade went on to hit my original target at 1282.25 for 4 points...

Pre Market Analysis 1-25-11 Tuesday

News: FOMC meeting begins, S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9:00AM, Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: Market has been forming a new range from 1268-1295 we are currently in the middle of that range and at the most excepted prices. Over all the market has been in an uptrend and no signs of changing as of yet. I want to see ES above 1268 and 1258 to keep longer term bullish bias going forward. We have broken out of a rising wedge and are retesting the back part of the bottom trend line so this could give a little bit of selling.

MP Notes: ES has been in the middle of the forming balance area. 1268-1295. Globex tried to move higher over night but has since sold down a little bit. Globex value is in the same area as yesterdays value indicating no real shift in sentiment from yesterday. ES did manage to close above established value and formed a P shape on the day showing signs of a continued move up is likely. ES has been filling in the low volume area on the 60 min chart that has the profile on it. ES is still around CVPOC at 1282

Trade plan: So we finally have a few figures out today (see above) We are in the middle of the developing balance area and at CVPOC which is an area of usually choppy price action. So with the catalyst out today hopefully we will be able to move out of this area. Im not to eager to get into any trades around this area. ES has tested the upper part of the value area last night at 1291.75 and was meet with responsive sellers pushing ES down to1282 as of writing this. A break and hold below 1277-1279 area could lead to a move lower to test 1273.50-1275.50 CLVN area. A move below that will be a red flag for buyers as a test of the lower end of the range at 1268 is likely in which case if we test the 1268 area i will look for long opps there as i expect selling to shut off around there. I will look to be a responsive buyer at the support areas below that are laid out on the 30 min chart because of the over ll context being bullish (daily uptrend). If ES manages to hold above 1277-1279 and the CVPOC at 1282 then the expectation is for ES to move higher. If ES moves higher i will look to be a responsive seller above value at the resistance levels on the 30 min chart around globex highs area. Over all in gonna be patient and see how the market reacts to the news release at 10AM EST