Tuesday, May 3, 2011

End of day review Tuesday 5-3-11


Es opened and traded down to naked vpoc at 1352.75 we bounced from there back up to 1 tick in front of the IBH at 1357.00. I wanted to see ES trade a little beyond the IBH or at least touch it so I didn’t look at selling this area. Also I didn’t have my levels at 1356.75-1358.50 set in the correct place this morning so the market didn’t trade up into my level and that’s why I wanted 58 to trade. If I had my levels in the correct place the market would have hit that area just nicely and I would have taken a short there. I was off by 2 ticks to high. Will watch for that next time it’s just a matter of experience. Then the market proceeded to move lower and we had a little bounce at IBL so on the retest I went long (#1) which looking back was bad trade location because my trade level was at 1349.50-1351.00 and IBL was at 1352.00 so needless to say we broke below and I was stopped out for 6 ticks. We got a little bounce at globex low and then a retrace back up into IBL which would have been a good area to sell against and go with the momentum. After moving lower I still believed in the long side so I tried again (#2) at 1350.25 long and failed to bounce and was stopped again for 6 ticks. It looked good for a long here and the location was good except the market didn’t want to trade higher and I should have realized that and not tried the next trade. At this time I would have been better off walking away but I tried again (#3) long at 1350.25 lol and was stopped again for 2.25 points on that because stilled believed in the long side. So finally I stepped away and came back in a little bit after re-centering myself. Now we were in an area I identified in my morning trade plan as an area “we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well”. It would have been great trying to trade from the long side but when you get stopped 3 times in a row the market is trying to tell me something so listen up… Then the market bounced at my support 3 points back up into ON low where it would have been good for a short to trade back lower and was good for 3 points. Now longs are looking good here with the divergence in the ticks and my delta indicator. So I finally got long but my entrance was off again but my 6 tick stop kept me in. Now I did something  here I usually never do and I added to my position after realizing my entry was off I didn’t move my stop but I bought 2 more at 1346.25 and now have 4 riding up for 3 points target. The target was achieved and I had 1 runner for a target of 51 and I chickened out and took it off at 49 for the same 3 when clearly the next target was IBL at 1352 area.
   To sum up my trading for the day I obviously had fear of missing something because I kept taking trades trying to pick were the market was going to turn as opposed to letting the market tell me where and when to put my trade on. The short term trend was down and I should have been looking to sell areas. The market didn’t give any reason to get long in my areas other than the 1345-1347 area which was clear as day. I think I need to sit back and relax a little bit and read the price action and not be afraid to miss something.
   The trades I should have taken was long at first touch of my level at at ON low I would have been in front a point or so and could have scratched for BE. After 49 broke I should have been looking for shorts and could have taken a short at retest of ON low. If I didn’t like that then a long on first touch of my 1345-1347 area and first target would have been retest of ON low. Then the long at 1346.25 was the ideal trade of the day for a nice bounce back up. All in due time… I have to keep evolving in my psychology and market read of price action.




Pre market analysis Tuesday 5-3-11


News: Factory orders @ 10 AM
Trade plan: So the market has been grinding higher and I was expecting a balanced session yesterday and most of this week. For the most part the day was balanced but we did start to see some responsive sellers step in and move the market lower in yesterday’s session. Value expanded and the range on the day got bigger (13 points or so) then the recent norm. And the vpoc shifted lower throughout the day closing at 1357.75. With the recent uptrend the market could use a little breather so a pullback wouldn’t be unexpected. The question is how far will it pullback? Over all buyers are still in control and im bullish above the 1349-1351 level short term. Without any real market moving catalyst tomorrow im expecting a range bound day to take place. Globex has been establishing value lower throughout the night building acceptance at 1354.50. We currently are bouncing off of the 1349.50-1351.00 level as i expect buyers to maintain this area to remain in control.
Bull scenario:
Value built lower yesterday and in globex so im becoming a little more bearish. I still believe buyers are in control above 1349.50-1351.00 area short term but sellers could test below that level today so i will be cautious getting long there although i do expect a bounce on first touch of this area. Below that area we could get a fast liquidation down to the 1340-1342 area where i expect buyers to be active as well and will be looking for long opps as well. If trade is slow and balanced we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well. Over all buyers in control and context is bullish above the 1349-1351 area so i will be looking for rotation at each support level below unless we get an OD type open.
Bear scenario:
For the short side i will be looking for shorts at resistance if the day sets up as being balanced. After the responsive move lower yesterday i believe the buyers are getting weak up here and the sellers are starting to step in. If this is the case then i will start to see more of a reaction from the sellers at resistance areas. In which case i will be looking to sell the rotations off of the resistance levels. I have resistance level and globex highs at 1357-1359 area which is also the vpoc from yesterday and if sellers are going to continue their selling they will want the market below this area a break above that could bring in a test of the highs again. I have resistance at the highs at 1366.50-1368.00 but i will be cautious selling the highs of the year as we could break higher again. There is also minor resistance at 1361.75 and we could see a reaction there as well.